Leeds United vs Southampton: Betting Odds & Prediction

Third-placed Leeds United host fourth-placed Southampton in the Championship on Saturday. Kick-off at Elland Road is at 12.30pm UK time. 

First-half goals from Adam Armstrong (2) and Will Smallbone earned Saints a 3-1 victory in September’s reverse fixture. Pascal Struijk netted the consolation.

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Leeds United

Leeds United will be smarting from the hammer blow of last weekend’s 4-0 defeat at QPR, which looks likely to have cost them the chance of automatic promotion. They have secured at least a play-off spot but could still join champions Leicester City in the automatic promotion berths if they win, and second-placed Ipswich Town lose at home to Huddersfield Town. 

After dropping just four points in a blistering first three months of 2024, Leeds have faltered at the business end of the campaign, recording three defeats and a draw in April—including seeing their unbeaten home record fall to Blackburn Rovers. 

The Whites have collected 90 points (27 wins, 9 draws, 9 defeats) at 2 points per game. They have scored 80 goals at an average of 1.78 goals per game, from an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.61, and conceded 41 at 0.91 per game (xGA 1.02).

They have the Championship’s best home record, amassing 53 points (16 wins, 5 draws, 1 defeat) with an average of 2.41 points per match. They have netted 44 times at Elland Road at 2 goals per match (xG 1.77) and conceded a division-leading 0.64 goals per game (xGA 0.91). However, Daniel Farke’s side have failed to find the target in their last two fixtures in their own stadium, having scored in their previous 17 outings at Elland Road.

Both teams have scored (BTTS) in 50% of Leeds United’s home matches, at a rate of 2.64 per game.

Southampton

Southampton, who are guaranteed to finish in fourth place, look to have taken their foot off the gas as they prepare for the play-offs. Defeats in each of their last three Championship matches have cost them any hope of automatic promotion. Like their hosts, their form has dipped sharply; they have lost seven of their last 15 matches having only dropped 12 points in their previous 22. 

Russell Martin’s side have amassed 84 points (25 wins, 9 draws, 11 defeats) at 1.87 points per game. They have bagged five goals more than their hosts at an average of 1.89 per game, from an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.86. However, they have just the 14th-best goals-against record in the Championship, having conceded 62 goals at 1.38 goals per match (xGA 1.14).

Away from St Mary’s, Southampton have collected 36 points (10 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats) at 1.64 points per match. But they have only taken one point from their last four away trips. They have scored at an average of 1.41 per road game from an expected goals of 1.75 and shipped 1.5 per game (xGA 1.2). 

Saints have seen a joint-high average goals by both teams of 3.27 per game, level with Ipswich Town, although that figure drops to 2.91 in away outings. Southampton have only failed to score in three of their away matches (13.6%) and both teams have scored in 63.6% of their visits.

Prediction

Despite their recent woes, Leeds’ powerful home record means they remain strong favourites to take the three points; however, the odds (3/5 Coral/Ladbrokes) produce a minimal return on the moneyline bet.

Both sides could do with a momentum boost as they could yet meet again in the play-off final later this month.

OddsNow's Pick: Over 3+ goals scored (3/4 @ vbet)