Leeds United vs Millwall: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aled Edwards

Leeds United look to continue their push towards the top of the Sky Bet Championship as they host Millwall on Sunday. 

Kick-off is set for 3pm at Elland Road.  

Recent Form 

Leeds United

Leeds' good form has seen them close the gap to Championship leaders to just three points. Home form for the Yorkshire club has been exemplary, with Leeds winning their last seven league fixtures at home. Impressively, Daniel Farke’s side remain undefeated at Elland Road so far this season. 

Consistency at home means Leeds have averaged 2.56 points per match at Elland Road (W14, D4, L0), compared to an average of 1.74 points per match on the road (W10, D3, L6). Leeds have also maintained a +27 goal difference at home in the Championship this season, scoring 39 and conceding just 12 in 18 matches so far. 

Farke’s side have averaged an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.82 at home which they’ve exceeded, scoring an average of 2.17 goals per game so far. They are also outperforming their defensive projections, averaging an expected goals against (xGA) of 0.9, but conceding only 0.67 in front of their home fans so far.

Leeds take an average of 12.83 shots per match at home with a conversion rate of 17%, and have only failed to score in 6% of their home fixtures. They have kept clean sheets in 44% of their games at Elland Road, a slightly lower figure than their record of keeping clean sheets in 47% of their games on the road.  

Goals have also been plentiful at Elland Road, with an average of 2.83 goals per match so far this season. 

Millwall

Despite sitting just five points above the relegation zone, Millwall’s form has seen some improvement of late. The Lions are unbeaten in their last four league games. 

Gary Rowett’s side have avoided defeat in 61% of their away matches, a much better record than at The Den where they have avoided defeat in only 53% of games. They also score more on the road, finding the back of the net an average 1.11 times per game as opposed to 0.84 in front of their home fans. This average of 1.11 exceeds Millwall’s xG of 0.84 away from home. 

Millwall also concede less goals away from home, at an average of 1.17 goals per match on the road, comparing with 1.42 at The Den. This is once again better than their expected statistics, with the Lions’ away xGA at 1.44 per match. 

They have however failed to score in a worrying 28% of their away matches, whilst keeping clean sheets in only 33% of away games. They take an average of only 6.44 shots per match whilst away.

Prediction

Despite Millwall’s recent improvements and four-game unbeaten streak, Leeds still come into this game as clear favourites but there is little value on offer on the moneyline. Leeds' tendancy to be involved in high-scoring home matches, coupled with Millwall's positive record on the road, should make for a high-scoring encounter at Elland Road. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 3 goals to be scored (7/6 @ vBet)

 

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