Hill’s Hotshots: Back this 12/1 EFL acca on Saturday

Summers always do have a whirlwind feel to them for football fans when there’s a major tournament to help bridge the gap and less than four weeks on from England’s Euro 2024 final heartache, the EFL roars back into action this weekend.

Fans of English football’s second, third and fourth tiers will be ‘treated’ to a revised schedule this term, with more games set to have their kick-off times inconveniently moved for TV coverage than ever before. 

Whatever that means for the “global growth of the product”, it’s a pretty raw deal for the millions of loyal match-going fans, who are the crux of what makes our pyramid so special. 

However, with my punting cap on, it does mean we will have an even wider spread of matches to bet on and hopefully, plenty of opportunities to put winners up in this new EFL column of mine. 

Without further ado, let’s jump into the opening weekend’s games, where I’ve picked out three away teams who look to have strong chances of dampening the new season spirit for their respective hosts.

Matt Hill's best EFL bets for Saturday, August 9, 2024

• 2pts - Coventry to beat Stoke @ 19/10 (William Hill)
• 2pts - Blackpool to beat Crawley @ 11/10 (Coral)
• 2pts - Rotherham to beat Exeter @ 13/10 (Coral)
• 1pt - Coventry, Blackpool and Rotherham treble @ 12.4/1 (Unibet)

Total staked - 7pts
2024-25 P/L - 0pts 

Selection #1 — Coventry to beat Stoke (19/10)

Few bosses enter this new campaign with as much credit in the bank as Mark Robins has accrued at Coventry City.

Since beginning his second stint with the West Midlands outfit back in March 2017, the 52-year-old has racked up an achievements list more akin to that of someone playing Football Manager on their laptop. 

He lifted the EFL trophy within a month of returning, sealed a League Two promotion in 2018, oversaw a stroll to the League One title in 2020 and then came within a penalty shootout of the Premier League in 2022.

And yet, Robins nearly topped the lot last term when taking his Sky Blues side within a whisker of the FA Cup final — losing to Manchester United at Wembley in hugely contentious circumstances.

It feels inevitable that this fairytale tenure has a top-flight chapter to come, though any chance of that being sealed in 2023-24 was scuppered by the aforementioned Cup run.

Cov lost six of their last eight Championship games to finish nine points outside the play-off places and lessons will no doubt have been learned from that uncharacteristic slump.

Their opener this season is a trip to a Stoke side who can be expected to improve under their promising young boss Steven Schumacher in the coming months.

The 40-year-old Scouser guided Plymouth to a fabulous League One title triumph in 2022-23 but left Home Park under a cloud last December, contradicting previous declarations of loyalty by upping sticks for the Potteries at the first sign of outside interest.

After a tough start at his new employers — which featured a run of six losses in seven games across January and February — Schumacher and his squad ended the season on a high note with three straight wins, all accompanied by clean sheets.

Brighter days are on the cards at the Bet365 Stadium but this particular contest looks a stern task for the hosts, particularly considering a frustrating glut of injuries.

New signings Bae Junho and Sam Gallagher are both ruled out of the opening day, alongside ex-Coventry defender Michael Rose, influential midfielder Ben Pearson and experienced campaigner Enda Stevens.

In the circumstances, the visitors feel the likelier side to hit the ground running and make real appeal at 19/10 for an opening-day success.

Selection #2 — Blackpool to beat Crawley (21/20) 

Crawley’s promotion to League One has to go down as one of the greatest achievements in EFL history, given the Red Devils entered the 2023-24 campaign as bookies’ favourites to drop into the non-league.

The Sussex side’s ownership group, WAGMI United, had generated almost exclusively negative headlines since acquiring the club in April 2022, appearing out of touch with both the community they were representing and also the job at hand. 

However, the cryptocurrency investors clearly have an eye for innovation and a remarkable recruitment drive last term saw eyebrow-raising additions from rivals’ reserve ranks and non-league minnows turn out to be a series of rough diamonds.

Those diamonds were polished into shape by a hugely impressive boss in Scott Lindsay, who led his young pups into the play-offs on the season’s final day before masterminding a bonkers 8-1 aggregate win over MK Dons and then sweeping aside Crewe 2-0 at Wembley.

Sadly for Lindsay, the significant majority of their playing squad have been poached or sold off for a relative pittance over the summer — perhaps dealing the American owners a harsh lesson in the importance of protecting assets with more robust contracts.

Can they pull off another majestic summer of wheeling and dealing? Well, they are certainly having a go. To date, 15 new faces have checked in, from FC Volendam to Havant and Waterlooville and most places in between.

If anyone can knit such a fresh and unproven group together, then it is LIndsay — but he will be doing so with even less time than last term and at an even higher level.

We can therefore reasonably expect a slow start from Crawley and opening-day opponents Blackpool will be hoping to take advantage.

The Seasiders fell just three points short of the League One play-offs last term, losing to Reading on the final day when victory would have sealed their spot in the end-of-season lottery. 

Boss Neil Critchley is generally held in strong regard by the club’s fans due to his previous achievements, though their away form in 2023-24 certainly caused a lot of grumbling. 

Just 25 of their 73-point total was achieved on the road — a tally so lowly, club CEO Julian Winter acknowledged it in his post-season debrief.

Winter said: “Everyone would agree the main disappointment was the away form, and we have to find a way to improve that through player acquisitions and our approach to those games — but that’s down to Neil and the players.

Sure enough, the summer has seen plenty of experience arrive with Jordan Rhodes, Ashley Fletcher, Elliot Embleton and Lee Evans all proven at this level.

Ultimately, this looks like an opening clash between one side significantly underprepared for the season facing another ready to hit the ground running. 

Selection #3 — Rotherham to beat Exeter (11/8)

Anyone who put an hour aside to watch our EFL antepost season preview over on the Odds Now YouTube channel (shameless plug in this article, too) will know I’m very keen on Rotherham and Steve Evans this season.

Evans is a polarising figure but when you strip back all the noise, the big-boned Scotsman is a bonafide winner. 

Including his humble beginnings in non-league football, Evans has now overseen eight career promotions — two of which came during his first spell with the Millers over a decade ago.

So, when it was announced he would be swapping Stevenage for a return to South Yorkshire in April, I was no doubt rubbing my hands alongside other EFL punting enthusiasts.

This summer has been textbook Evans, getting his business done aggressively and early. A reunion with prolific Jonson Clarke-Harris probably the most eye-catching move, with the 30-year-old instilled as second favourite in the division’s top goalscorer market. 

Joe Rafferty, Liam Kelly and Reece James have also committed the first year of their 30s to Rotherham, which nicely summarises the manager’s desire to land players boasting ample experience without being over the hill.

Another hallmark of Evans teams are fast starts. The 61-year-old has not overseen an opening-day loss since 2015, winning five and drawing three of his last eight curtain-raisers, including away victories in the last two seasons.

It is that reason alone why getting with the Millers this weekend makes such appeal, as they travel to a steady but unspectacular-looking Exeter.

Another Scotsman is in charge at St James Park in the form of Gary Caldwell, with the ex-Celtic defender fast approaching two years in his post.

Finishes of 14th and 13th in the third tier are credible enough for club who remain fan-owned and therefore reliant on a combination of their outstanding academy system and savvy use of the transfer market to continually compete with loftier opponents.

Last term in particular, Caldwell played a lot of games within fine margins. HIs Grecians side scored a lowly 46 goals in as many games — the lowest total outside the league’s bottom seven by a distance.

Nothing in their transfer business suggests that approach will wildly change in 2024-25. So, while they are unlikely to be embroiled in a relegation battle, it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about the Devon outfit.

Evans and Rotherham can be confidently backed to make a strong start to their promotion bid at a juicy 11/8.

At time of writing, Matt’s treble of Coventry, Blackpool and Rotherham pays a best price of 12.4/1 at Unibet (as of midday on Friday, August 9, 2024).