Gab Sutton weekly: League One promotion race wide open as Blues cruise
In his second exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a forensic look at a wide-open League One promotion race.
It’s very tempting to discount Birmingham from the promotion conversation in the third tier because it looks so likely that Chris Davies’ side will pull clear of the chasing pack.
I say that not out of any blue-tinted arrogance. But realistically, when you buy a £20million player in League One and quintuple your own transfer record at that level, you’re probably going to be a class above everyone else.
So, we’ll put Blues to one side because, while it’s still early in the season and there’s time for things to change, it’s hard to argue with the chunkiest price being 1/8 on the B9 outfit achieving a top two finish — not a great deal of value there.
Below Birmingham is where it gets interesting, with the same number of points separating them and 2nd-placed Wrexham (five) as Wrexham and 15th-placed Huddersfield.
Since winning 4-0 at Bolton just three weeks ago, producing what looked a serious statement of intent, the Terriers have declined alarmingly with four straight defeats.
Michael Duff’s side have three favourable home fixtures in their next five, though, as well as a winnable trip to a Scott Lindsey-less Crawley, and I trust the Northern Irishman to set things straight as he did at Cheltenham and Barnsley after a tough first 10 games.
So, if Huddersfield can take 10+ points from those outings, which seems realistic after a bright pressing first half at Birmingham in midweek, they’re right back on track. The 5/6 on offer for them to still finish inside the top six could look a very big price this time next month.
High-fliers may struggle to stay the course
Wrexham have enjoyed a wonderful journey over the last few years, but I don’t see them staying in the automatic promotion conversation this season, despite them sitting 2nd right now.
It’s a similar story for Mansfield, who have soared from 14th to 3rd in an open league thanks to four straight league wins over bottom six opposition, but realistically aren’t there for the duration.
In fact, it’s been a great start for the automatically promoted clubs all round, with Stockport flying high in fifth thanks in part to the form of star forward Louie Barry — but again, you could argue the fixture list has been kind to County, who will really be tested in November and December.
Similarly to Mansfield, Blackpool have shot up the league after a disappointing start under Neil Critchley.
The Tangerines were on a high after four straight wins to start Steve Bruce’s reign, before Tom Hamer’s 95th-minute equalizer for 10-man Lincoln in midweek.
Bruce has done a lot better at Bloomfield Road than I expected, so far, but I’m still not sure the vastly experienced manager will sustain his impact against more agile, talented, up-and-coming coaches.
Barnsley look a bit imbalanced to me, despite sitting in 7th, while Stevenage and Exeter, 9th and 10th respectively, will feel they’ve had a fantastic season if they can manage a top-half finish.
That’s also true of Reading, who haven’t had the summer takeover they needed and remain more focused on matters off the field than on them.
The uncertainty towards the top means sides like Wigan, Peterborough and Rotherham, who haven’t had the start they wanted after targeting a promotion challenge in the summer, still have the opportunity to put things right — simply because of the teams who are in the top six who aren’t likely to remain there.
Take Bolton, for instance. A 4-0 home loss to Huddersfield saw the knives out for manager Ian Evatt. Yet after a positive meeting with the hierarchy, he realised he had support in the building, made one or two systematic tweaks, and his side have since won three on the spin, scoring 11 goals in the process.
That’s how quickly things can change in what’s shaping up to be a very open league, Birmingham aside. Such quirky results give promotion aspirants some room for error at this stage.
Improving Imps can stay the course
Huddersfield, mentioned above, and Charlton can also take heart from the break they’ve been given after plummeting into the bottom half with their respective four and three-game losing streaks.
The difference, perhaps, would be that while the numbers suggest Town are creating chances, Charlton are struggling to do likewise, thus putting their defence under more pressure, whilst also still suffering from the loss of Alfie May in the summer.
Lincoln, though, seem to be continuing their excellent form from the last third of the previous campaign, winning four of their first eight and losing just the once.
The Imps don’t have as good a best XI as they did in the second half of last season, without the likes of Alex Mitchell, Lasse Sorensen and Joe Taylor, but they can counter-balance that with better depth, a full season under an excellent coach in Michael Skubala, and perhaps more smart recruitment in January.
With that in mind, City have given themselves a great chance of finishing inside the top six — currently a very generous best-priced 11/4 to do so.
Wycombe, who boast the league’s third-best attacking record with 16 goals in eight games, are also 11/4 and could also stick around for longer than the majority may anticipate.
Aaron Morley has been a great signing for the Chairboys in midfield, with the playmaker showing signs of rekindling his excellent 2022-23 form at this level with Bolton, while Richard Kone looks a serious prospect up top.
We can presume that at least five of the bottom seven will stay in that vicinity of the League One table, whereas the promotion race is anyone’s guess — other than Birmingham’s, who are everyone’s…