Gab Sutton weekly: League One relegation battle has inevitable look already
In his latest exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) gives his thoughts on this season's battle for survival in League One...
Cambridge and Burton represent a tale of two clubs who have taken different approaches to their managerial position in recent times.
The U’s released a statement, during the international weekend to reaffirm their faith in boss Garry Monk, and it’s since been rewarded with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Wigan and Stevenage.
Unfortunately, Mark Robinson at Burton didn’t receive the same backing and has been dismissed with the Brewers bottom of the table with four points from 11 games.
It’s a real shame for Robbo because he’s clearly a great guy with an incredible coaching reputation — especially in the area of developing young players — and he was so keen to make it work for himself as a manager.
Burton weren’t too far off under the 57-year-old initially and found themselves on the wrong side of fine margins, but in the last month or so performance levels regressed.
Unfortunately, it’s a cut-throat industry and when there’s the threat of relegation looming, managers don’t get much time to correct bad starts to the season.
The next appointment for the Brewers will be interesting, because I don’t expect Nordic Football Group to completely abandon their stylistic and developmental vision for the club.
However, they also recognise the severity of the situation they’re in, and that they need results tomorrow with crunch clashes with relegation rivals Cambridge, Crawley and Shrewsbury just around the corner.
So, what’s required at the Pirelli is some kind of hybrid of aesthetics and efficiency: a manager that is stylistically aspirational, whilst being realistic to know what’s required to get results right now.
That’s why, if I was on the committee, I’d be looking at somebody like Dean Holden, who’s currently assisting Steven Gerrard at Al-Ettifaq.
I do feel, though, with Burton that it’s still an exciting time for them, even if the results aren’t what they want right now. There’s a vision and a project for the fanbase to buy into now, which hadn’t been the case for much of a post-Championship era that has been largely about firefighting.
That has been Cambridge’s modus operandi, too, over the last couple of years, following an excellent first season up at this level in 2021-22.
Cambridge have given themselves a sniff of safety with those back-to-back wins, and if they can make it three in a row against Burton, then the mood around the Abbey will start to feel a lot more hopeful.
They’ve put their footballing ideals to one side in a bid to ensure they tick off the points required, and they defend in a rigid 4-4-2 shape, whilst moving into a 3-4-3 in-possession with left-back James Gibbons (or Danny Andrew) tucking into a back-three, then right-back Liam Bennett pushing up to be the corresponding wing-back to James Brophy on the other side.
Elias Kachunga’s versatility helps a lot with that transition, too, because he is a forward by trade, so he can operate in a front-three, but he’s played on the right successfully previous in his career — think David Wagner’s 2016-17 promotion-winning Huddersfield side — and gets through the required graft for that sort of role.
So, it looks as though Cambridge now, finally, have a formula that can give them an improved chance of beating the drop, and we’re starting to see the version of Garry Monk that starred as a manager in the top two leagues of English football.
I really worry about Shrewsbury and I feel they need Roland Wycherley to sell to the right buyer for the club to either continue the journey they’re on — which is an impressive 10 consecutive seasons in the third-tier — or, more likely, start a new one in the fourth.
They are a team that will rely on individualism, most likely from Leo Castledine, to create chances. It’s one thing if they’re strong defensively, but Salop have conceded the joint-third most goals in League One.
I also expect Crawley to leak a lot of goals this season, despite their impressive 3-0 victory over Lincoln in midweek.
The Red Devils have taken a mere four points from the last 28 available and could struggle without the influence of Scott Lindsey, as Rob Elliot stepped into an unenviable hot-seat.
I think Leyton Orient are in a false position. They’re 20th at the moment, but I actually see them as more like a top half side, because they’ve consistently shaded the play in almost every game this season and haven’t quite had the craft and killer instinct to really make it count in the final third — but they’re not far off.
I don’t see Stevenage getting sucked in, despite their no-show against the U’s, just because Alex Revell’s side are so strong defensively having recorded a whopping seven clean sheets already — plus they’ve got key attacking players still to find full fitness.
Bristol Rovers don’t have a wholly satisfied fanbase right now, and there’s a debate to be had about whether they’re fulfilling their potential, but that doesn’t make them a relegation candidate either.
The Gas have accrued 13 points from six games against teams below them in the table, and as long as they remain reliable flat-track bullies, they should make a home for themselves in that 15th-18th bracket – whether Gasheads will be content with that is another matter.
So, bearing in mind that Mansfield and Exeter have already assembled healthy points tally that have given both plenty of room for error, I think the relegation battle in League One is pretty set.
Dropping from the third tier is likely to be four teams from the five of Burton, Shrewsbury, Cambridge, Crawley and Northampton.
The Cobblers have a decent team from what I’ve seen, and I think the likes of Tyler Roberts and Tariq Fosu bring a level of individual quality that could really make the difference for Jon Brady’s side.
So, I think they might be the ones to keep their heads above water!
Gab's selections
Shrewsbury to be relegated - 4/11 (BetVictor)
Burton to be relegated - 2/5 (BetVictor)