Gab Sutton weekly: Dons have still Scott a chance in League Two promotion race

In his second exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a forensic look at a wide-open League Two promotion race.

Ten games is normally the time we can start look at the league table, and sure enough, League Two’s promotion race seems to be taking shape in tantalising fashion.

As is standard in this glorious fourth tier, just one point separates first from sixth, as Walsall, Gillingham, Barrow and Doncaster are tied on 19 points, while Notts County and Port Vale follow up on 18.

I would expect about four or five of the above sextet to secure a top seven finish this season, but there’s plenty of room for things to shake up as well — just look at Donny, who were 20th as late as March last season and ultimately reached the Play-Offs through spring’s 10-game winning streak!

I expect MK Dons to enter the promotion equation after making an outstanding appointment in Scott Lindsey, who has enjoyed an unbeaten start since being poached from Crawley. We’ve already seen what they can produce at their best with a 5-1 demolition of Harrogate.

The Buckinghamshire outfit are a tidy 4/1 for the autos with Bet365: they’re only seven points off at the moment, and I expect them to take around 12-14 points from their next six games, from which point that price might look like a decent runner a month from now.

Don't sleep on the Spireites

Chesterfield also look a top seven side for my money despite sitting 12th. They’ve been the better team in about seven of their ten performances this season, and if they can start to kill off the lesser sides, they’ll surely ascend into contention.

I saw the Spireites demolish Crewe 5-0 on their own turf on week two, and it was one of the most complete team displays of the League Two season so far, so I’m actually more bullish about them than I was before the season — they just need to convert those draws into wins.

And then there’s AFC Wimbledon, who would actually be 5th in the PPG table, even though they’re 13th in the actual table due to a series of postponements through a flooded Plough Lane.

They’re a club with a terrific spirit and togetherness about them, on and off the field, and I feel they have the characteristics to thrive in this sort of adversity.

I do feel Johnnie Jackson has to rethink the dynamics up top, though. Last season, they had the prolific and athletic Ali Al-Hamadi running off Omar Bugiel and it scared defences.

I don’t think Joe Pigott provides the same kind of threat, and I do wonder if the nippy Josh Kelly might be slightly better foil for Bugiel, but the Dons have some great defensive foundations — and a midfield playmaker in Jake Reeves who brings a lot of quality and intelligence in midfield.

I’m still working out where I’m at with Gillingham, who suffered the first setback of the Mark Bonner era with successive defeats.

Sitting pretty in second represents a great start for the Gills, after last season’s underperformance in midtable, and they’re defensively water-tight – despite having started the campaign with lots of injuries.

If I’m holding them to top three standards, though, I want to see more from them creatively, and that will mean at least one of Jonny Williams or Bradley Dack becoming the equivalent of Wes Hoolahan in Bonner’s 2020-21 promotion-winning Cambridge side.

Performance wise, I’ve probably been more impressed with Walsall, who have more dimensions to their play this year, following last season’s overreliance on Isaac Hutchinson for inspiration.

Right wing-back Connor Barrett looks an inspired recruit from AFC Fylde, they’ve got runners in midfield who love to break forward into goalscoring areas as well, like Jamie Jellis and Charlie Lakin, and I think Nathan Lowe facilitates that nicely as a second striker to target man Jamille Matt.

The Saddlers still have Donervon Daniels to come back, who for me has been one of the most consistent defenders at this level over the last few years, to provide a bit of the nous they may have missed in that anomalistic 6-2 home thrashing by Fleetwood.

The Cod Army picked up their form under Charlie Adam in the second half of last season, albeit en route to relegation from League One, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that they’re one of the better teams in the league below, with Ryan Graydon striking up a nice understanding with Ronan Coughlan.

Notts and Donny set the standard

In terms of the very best teams in the league, though, I feel Doncaster and Notts County are a notch above the rest – the latter look a great price to win the league at 11/1 with Ladbrokes, or 10/11 to finish in the top seven.

For Rovers, it’s been a case of replacing star loanees sufficiently to pick up from where they left off – that extraordinary form mentioned above, prior to the Play-Off Semi-Final defeat to Crewe – with Luke Molyneux enjoying an excellent right-sided relationship with Jamie Sterry.

As for the Magpies, their assignment was simple: improve defensively. And, with a better goalkeeper in Alex Bass, better defenders in Matty Platt and Jacob Bedeau, more defensively attuned wing-backs, greater midfield depth and a stronger press, they’ve gone from having the league’s worst defensive record to it’s third-best.

Stuart Maynard’s side still boast the stunning vision of Dan Crowley, arguably the best player in the league, and I think they’ll have the balance they need to secure a top three berth.

Port Vale managed to secure a 1-0 win at Meadow Lane, but it was very much a case of them taking their one big chance, and their hosts missing four or five.

The Valiants had all 11 men behind the ball at times, and I’m not sure that method of defending a slender lead is sustainable for Darren Moore’s side – in other games, I think the absence of one or two outlets to get them up the pitch and give the defence some oxygen might cost them.

For that reason, I don’t see the Burslem outfit finishing in the top three, but with two of the best midfielders in the league in George Byers and Ben Garrity, as well as a plethora of prolific strikers, they may have enough individual quality to scrape into the top seven.

I fancy Grimsby as a top 10 team this season as well, as they make huge stylistic strides thanks to excellent coaching from David Artell and a joined-up recruitment process – but heavy defeats to Notts County and Doncaster suggest the Mariners are a notch or two shy of the very best teams in the league.

I had top three incumbents Barrow and Walsall in my bottom half in my ante-post 1-24. On this evidence, I may have got those slightly wrong…