World Grand Prix 2024: Friday predictions and best bets

We are down to the final eight at darts’ World Grand Prix after a tournament of shocks continued on Thursday night with all four betting outsiders winning their matches.

Our arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) correctly predicted wins for James Wade and Joe Cullen and also landed a 3/1 winner courtesy of Mike De Decker’s majestic 180 hitting.

Read on as Matt casts his eye over the ever-changing outright markets and gives his quarter-final predictions and best bets for what should be a classic Friday evening of action.

Frankly, anyone who predicted this last-eight line-up should go and stick tonight’s Euromillions on — though really, we shouldn’t be surprised.

I’ve been like a broken record on this column all week talking about how lethal the Grand Prix format is. But seriously, when was the last time we had a session of major tournament darts where every single favourite was beaten?

Going into Friday’s action, I can’t help but be pleased with my position. 

My pre-tournament 100/1 each-way wager on James Wade is, to quote his walk-on song, very much “still standing” — the Machine now no bigger than 8/1 across the board. 

I’ve also backed him at 15/2 for his quarter, which he is now odds-on to win ahead of a clash with the impressive Mike De Decker for a semi-final spot.

I must admit, I’m kicking myself for not having a saver on De Decker in that quarter market at 18/1, having talked up his chances on our YouTube preview show. 

I always felt the Belgian had the tools to do some damage in this sphere if he could get that D16 flowing and he’s done exactly that. Yes, he dodged a bullet against Damon Heta but my word, did he take apart a below-par Gary Anderson yesterday.

He poses a tough test but as a Wade backer, I think you’d have taken a quarter-final with the Real Deal five days ago.

Finally, I added Jonny Clayton to my outright book at 25/1 EW after the Ferret swept aside Richie Edhouse on opening night and he has since followed up with a battling win over Ross Smith.

Clearly, Clayton will have to lift it a bit to threaten the 5/4 tournament favourite Luke Humphries but I always think the Welshman looks likely in this format. Stranger things have happened!

Logic would tell you this tournament is now Humphries’ to lose. But quite often, the Grand Prix defies logic…

World Grand Prix darts predictions — Friday, October 11

Mike De Decker vs James Wade

A HUGE game from a personal perspective to start the night as my 100/1 outright runner takes on one of my favourite rising stars for a spot in the semi-finals.

This could feasibly have been much more comfortable viewing. It hurts not to have a penny on De Decker, having flagged him as a dangerous quarter runner on our YouTube preview video at 18/1 — but you can’t back them all!

Instead, I will watch on through the gaps in my fingers in hope that the bookies have got this one right, making the Machine the narrowest of 5/6 favourites against EVS shot De Decker.

The youngster has probably been the more visually impressive in his two victories thus far, destroying Gary Anderson 3-0 last night having already dumped out world No10 Damon Heta in round one. 

The Real Deal’s scoring has never been in doubt as one of the PDC’s top five 180 hitters. His proficiency on the outer ring, though, has gone to another level in recent times.

If he plays like he did last night again, Wade will be bang up against it but there are times where experience tends to catch up with rising stars, particularly on the biggest stages.

This is De Decker’s first ever major quarter-final. Wade, meanwhile, has made the last eight of a major every year since 2005 — when the Belgian was just nine years old.

So, I make Wade significantly more likely than his opponent to find his optimal level at this stage, which will involve some typically ruthless doubling and an an inimitable level of composure.

Like I’ve said all week, Wade’s mindset at the moment is extremely positive and I really do think he’s fired up for this particular tournament. 

It might not be spectacular but I back the veteran to get the job done here. To coin a phrase which has definitely never been used before, this might be “classic Wadey”.

Prediction: De Decker 1-3 Wade

Rob Cross vs Ryan Joyce

Despite all those big names falling, it still feels like precisely nobody is tipping second-favourite Rob Cross for glory, which rather sums up Voltage’s position in the darting landscape nowadays.

The man who burst onto the scene in 2017 and won the Worlds at the first attempt — one of sport’s most unlikely and exceptional success stories — has more recently became the man who plays solid stuff, goes quite deep in most majors but never wins them.

A tad harsh? Perhaps, but the 34-year-old is now over three years without a major title win. And though he’s registered admirable victories over Luke Littler and Martin Schindler to get this far, he’s still not been all that convincing in Leicester.

Therefore, the door looks ajar for the unfancied, unfashionable Joyce to extend his fairytale run here despite what the bookies say.

A reliable doubler with a marvellous mentality, the man they call Relentless was exactly that when pipping Nathan Aspinall in a mini-classic on Wednesday.

The Geordie opened up a 6/4 chance for this game and has drifted ever since, though I can’t quite fathom why. On what I’ve seen from both of these players, this is going to be a close-run thing and I’m more than happy to be with the underdog here (a safe strategy this week).

There’s 2/1 available with StarSports, which will do me nicely.

Prediction: Cross 2-3 Jocye

Luke Humphries vs Jonny Clayton

As stated, I’ve had an outright flyer on Clayton who is clearly up against it versus Humphries — though Ferret backers like me do have some cause for optimism.

This pair’s head-to-head record reads 5-2 in favour of the Welshman, including victories in their two previous major meetings which were both close run things.

Clayton triumphed 10-9 at the 2021 Players Championship Finals but more recently and relevantly, sneaked a Matchplay semi-final 17-15 last summer.

This was, of course, just before Humphries turned into the major-winning machine we now know but still, any small psychological advantage can make a big difference at the top level, certainly from Clayton’s perspective at least.

It goes without saying he’s going to need a bit of luck against a man averaging five points higher than him in 2024, though that gap is only three-and-a-half points in the last 30 days, interestingly.

Double-in can be a great leveller and if the Ferret has the bit between his teeth for another titanic battle, we might just get an upset that blows the whole tournament wide open.

Really though, taking on the great Humphries is rarely a wise move and I’ll likely be reminded why that is the case.

Prediction: Humphries 3-1 Clayton

Joe Cullen vs Dimitri Van den Bergh

A doffed cap if you backed either of these two to win their quarter, though I must say Van den Bergh is one of those I seem to always regret not trusting in hindsight.

The two-time major champ clearly needs a big event to get his juices flowing, having once again put a dire last few months of floor and Euro Tour performances behind him to dispose of Luke Woodhouse and Dave Chisnall in impressive fashion. 

It’s hard to argue with the bookies making him no bigger than 5/2 to reach the final, particularly with him looking in superior nick to his quarter-final opponent Cullen.

Like his first round shock win over Chris Dobey, the Rockstar put in a patchy performance in edging past Daryl Gurney 3-2 , ultimately coming up trumps in the dying stages.

All credit to him for battling through this prolonged sticky patch, which he eloquently described as “playing f**king s**t for months” yesterday. 

You can visibly see how hard Cullen is having to work for things at the moment, though — and eventually, that kind of exertion will catch up with you. 

Put simply. I don’t think Van den Bergh will afford him the same amount of chances he’s profited from in the first two rounds and this looks the best bet of the night to my eye.

The 4/5 about Dimitri with Ladbrokes looks too big, while I’ll also take a chance on him -1.5 sets (i.e. to win 3-1 or better) at 17/10 with Betfred.

Prediction: Cullen 1-3 Van den Bergh

Matt Hill's World Grand Prix betting tips — Friday, October 11

Ryan Joyce to beat Rob Cross - 2/1 (Star Sports)

Dimitri Van den Bergh to beat Joe Cullen - 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Dimitri Van den Bergh -1.5 sets handicap - 17/10 (Betfred)