Fiorentina vs AC Milan: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Jamie Terry

European hopefuls Fiorentina host AC Milan at the Stadio Artemio Franchi stadium on Saturday evening.

Fiorentina currently sit eighth in Serie A, two points from seventh-placed Napoli, having played a game less and are four points off sixth-placed Atalanta, whom they were meant to play before the international break. However, the match was postponed. 

Italy is likely to have seven teams in Europe next season with the country currently top of the UEFA coefficient rankings. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time.

Recent Form

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game having gained only ten points in their last ten games, with only four teams having gained fewer during this period. Despite this, Vincenzo Italiano’s side has improved slightly as of late and have progressed through to the Europa Conference League quarter-finals.

Although they are unbeaten in their last four league games, they have drawn three of these games, conceding a 95th-minute equalizer at home to fourth-placed Roma in their most recent league match.

Fiorentina have the seventh-best home record in Serie A so far, gaining 1.93 points per game at home, having lost only three times. This is mainly due to only three sides scoring more than their 26 home goals so far this season.

The Florence outfit have overperformed offensively at home so far this campaign, averaging 1.86 goals per game from an expected goals tally (xG) of 1.65. However, Italiano’s side have conceded goals at the rate expected, shipping 1.07 goals per game from an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.06.

The Stadio Artemio Franchi stadium has seen plenty of action this campaign, averaging 2.93 goals per game. In 50% of the matches, both teams have scored, as Fiorentina haven’t kept a home clean sheet since December 29th.

AC Milan

Milan head into this match following a fantastic set of recent results, having gained 23 points from the last ten games, only losing once in this period. In addition to this, they have won five out of their last six away matches. 

Across the entire season, the Rossoneri have gained two points per game on their travels, the second-best away record in the league. This is primarily due to their considerable overperformance in front of goal, having scored 2.13 away goals a game from an xG of 1.51.

However, Stefano Pioli’s men have been less fortunate defensively, conceding 1.67 goals per away game, compared to an xGA tally of 1.34.

Their defensive underperformance and significant attacking overperformance have led to an average of 3.8 total goals being scored in their away matches, by far the highest rate in the league.

Prediction

Goals should be expected in this tie. Fiorentina have only kept a clean sheet at home against sides in the bottom half of the table, while Milan have scored in every away match so far this season.

Both sides are missing key players. Vice-captains Giacomo Bonaventura of Fiorentina and Theo Hernandez of Milan have contributed 17 league goals combined this season; both are suspended for this fixture.

Although Fiorentina have improved in recent weeks and need a win in their conquest for European football next season, Milan have been relentless recently and their quality should see them pickup three points in an entertaining match. 

OddsNow's Pick: AC Milan to win (31/20 @ Betfair); Over 2.75+ goals scored (19/20 @ LiveScoreBet)

 

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