Barcelona vs Las Palmas: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Reigning La Liga champions Barcelona host an out-of-form Las Palmas side at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys stadium on Saturday evening.
Barca won the reverse fixture 2-1 courtesy of a 93rd-minute winner earlier in the season. A win for Barca will put them five points behind league leaders Real Madrid, who play on Sunday. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time.
Recent Form
Barcelona
Despite facing an injury crisis, with key men Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Jules Koundé, Álex Balde, Andreas Christensen, and Gavi all being unavailable as of late, Xavi’s side has been in excellent form.
Barca are unbeaten in their last eight league games, having gained 20 of the last 24 points available in the league, whilst reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League after defeating reigning Serie A champions Napoli. This is incredibly impressive given that they have had to rely on La Masia graduates, most notably Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsi during this period.
However, Xavi’s side have nine fewer points in the league than at the same stage last season, mainly due to their disappointing home form, particularly in defensive columns. Only six teams have conceded less at home this season (1.27 goals conceded a game), slightly underperforming their expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.21. This is a monumental change from last season when they conceded four home league goals all season.
Although Barca kept clean sheets in their last two home league games against Mallorca and Getafe, they were fortunate with both sides registering an expected goals (xG) tally of over 1.17.
Offensively, Barca have slightly overperformed their xG, having scored 2.2 goals a game from an expected goals tally (xG) of 2.12, and are the only team in the league to have scored in every home match this season.
Barca’s injury list has worsened over the international break, and Barca is likely to have to field a much-weakened side on Saturday. Talisman 35-year-old striker Robert Lewandowski, who has contributed to 21 league goals this season (35% of Barca’s total), scoring 13 and assisting eight, is a doubt, as are second-top scorer Ferran Torres and key defender Ronald Araujo.
Thoughts on Lamine Yamal's season so far? 💫#LALIGAHighlights | @FCBarcelona pic.twitter.com/s2y3XXyNik
— LALIGA English (@LaLigaEN) March 27, 2024
Las Palmas
Eleventh-placed Las Palmas come into this game following a terrible run of form, having not won in the league since February 10th. Although they are winless in their last three away matches, conceding nine goals in the process, only seven teams have collected more than Garcia Pimienta’s side away from home, having gained 15 points from 14 away matches (1.07 points per game).
Across the entire season, Las Palmas have impressed defensively on their travels. They have the joint seventh-best away defence in the league, conceding 1.36 goals a game, overperforming their expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.54. Despite this, Las Palmas have only kept a clean sheet in two of their 14 away matches so far this campaign.
Offensively, Las Palmas have struggled significantly away from home, having scored only 12 goals in 14 away matches (0.86 goals a game), slightly underperforming their expected goals tally (xG) of 0.96.
They are still yet to score away from home against any of the top eight placed teams in the La Liga standings, and top scorer Kyrian Rodriguez has only scored one of his six league goals away from home, highlighting their goal-scoring woes on the road.
Prediction
Barca will see this as a must-win game, knowing that any dropped points will likely end any hope of regaining the La Liga title. Their home games have averaged 3.47 goals so far this campaign; however, with an ever-growing injury list, it may be hard to see them scoring at the same rate, especially with top scorer Robert Lewandowski, doubtful to start.