Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia: Betting Odds & Prediction

Undisputed super-middleweight champion Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez defends against fellow Mexican Jaime Munguia on Saturday. 

Canelo seeks the fourth defence of his titles since capturing all four sanctioning body belts in November, 2021. Munguia, meanwhile, previously held a world title at super-welterweight. 

Tale of the Tape 

The champion Canelo hasn't fought since a comfortable unanimous decision victory over Jermell Charlo in September. Scoring a seventh-round knockdown in the process, Canelo won comfortably on all three scorecards after 12 rounds in Las Vegas. The fight was his second of 2023, and took place four months after another unanimous decision victory over Britain's John Ryder in Mexico. 

In fact, Canelo's last four fights have all gone the distance. He won three of those - the other being a comfortable unanimous decision over old rival Gennadiy Golovkin. The only blemish was a defeat to WBA light-heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol up at 175lbs. 

His last win inside the distance came in the form of an eleventh-round stoppage of Caleb Plant two-and-a-half years ago. The fight saw Canelo tie up all four sancioning body titles at super-middleweight, and at the time was his fourth stoppage victory in five bouts. 

Munguia comes into the bout having secured a ninth-round stoppage of the aforementioned Ryder back in January. The Briton was knocked to the canvas on four separate occasions before the fight was waved off by referee Wes Melton. 

Mexico's Munguia also displayed a calmness rarely seen in his 43 bout career, choosing his shots well to break down a resolute Ryder and land a shot at his fellow countryman. Having already held the WBO crown at super-welterweight, Munguia is vying to become a two-weight champion at the T-Mobile Arena this weekend. 

Prediction

Canelo rightly enters as firm favourite (1/5) given his dominance at super-middleweight since entering the division back in 2018. Despite stepping up to light-heavyweight on two occasions since, Canelo looks to have now settled at the weight as fans continue to call for a showdown with another Mexican in David Benavidez. 

Munguia must first be overcame, but it is hard to make a case for the challenger based on what we've seen from him. The 27-year-old has been in a bizarre limbo position over the last three years, with bizarre matchmaking halting his progress on the world stage. His demolition of Ryder was impressive nonetheless, though the argument that Canelo softened the Briton up in their fight may hold weight. 

Munguia is uncomfortable fighting on the back foot but it's hard to see him holding ground with Canelo in centre ring given the latter's physical presence. Canelo also possesses the stronger technical skills of the two, not to mention his resolute chin, and so it's difficult to foresee a Munguia win either inside the distance or on points. 

OddsNow's Pick: Canelo to win by Decision/Technical Decision (10/11 @ bet365)