Crystal Palace vs Manchester United: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Crystal Palace entertain Manchester United in the Premier League on Monday. Kick-off under the Selhurst Park lights is at 8pm UK time.
A fierce strike from Joachim Andersen gave Palace a surprise 1-0 win at Old Trafford in September’s reverse league fixture. It came just four days after United secured a 3-0 win in an EFL Cup third round tie in Manchester, with Alejandro Garnacho, Casemiro and Anthony Martial all on the scoresheet.
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Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are in fine form, having drawn their last match at Fulham 1-1 after three consecutive wins.
Palace have earned 40 points (10 wins, 10 draws, 15 defeats) at 1.14 points per game to start this round of matches in 14th position. They have scored 1.29 goals per game from an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.15. Oliver Glasner’s team have conceded an average of 1.63 goals (xGA 1.41).
The Eagles have averaged 1.29 points (6 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats) at Selhurst Park, but they have won five of their last eight and scored 20 goals in the process. They have scored 1.65 goals per match, despite an xG of just 1.27, and conceded 1.53 per game (xGA 1.28).
An average of 3.18 goals have been netted by both teams in Palace’s home games, while their both teams to score (BTTS) rate in home games of 64.7% is the joint-eighth highest.
Manchester United
Starting the gameweek in sixth and with the top four out of sight, Manchester United are looking more down the table than up as they bid to secure European football in some form next season. However, with the club reportedly open to transfer offers for most of the squad, there must be a question mark over the commitment to that objective of some of Erik Ten Hag’s players. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley, and their only league win in the last six matches was an unconvincing 4-2 Old Trafford defeat of doomed Sheffield United.
Manchester United have earned 54 points (16 wins, 6 draws, 12 defeats) and average 1.59 per match. They have scored 1.53 times per match, only the joint ninth highest in the league, and from an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.54. They have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match, the sixth-best record in the division, despite having an xGA of 1.72 which is the fourth worst.
In away matches, United have averaged 1.41 points per match (7 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats), the sixth-best record in the league. Their 1.41 goals netted per road match, from an xG of 1.29, ranks them only in mid-table. They have shipped an average 1.53 goals away from Old Trafford and have the fourth-best away defence statistically despite the fifth worst xGA of 1.91 in these fixtures.
However, United have not taken three points from any of their last four road matches (drawn 2, lost 2), a run stretching back to February. They have also conceded two goals or more in six of their last nine away matches, shipping 19 goals in the process.
Prediction
Unusually for this fixture, Crystal Palace begin as (narrow) bookmakers’ favourites to compete their first-ever league double over United. This reflects the two sides’ respective recent records as well as Palace’s home advantage.