Brighton vs Arsenal: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Brighton play host to title-chasing Arsenal on Saturday evening as the Gunners seek their first Premier League trophy in two decades.
The hosts come into the game seeking to secure a place in Europe next season. Kick-off is set for 5:30pm UK time.
Recent Form
Brighton
It has been another successful Premier League campaign for Brighton, with them sitting in ninth place ahead of the match this weekend. However, their recent form has been somewhat of a concern, with the Seagulls recording just one win in their last five league matches. Brighton also crashed out of the Europa League after a 4-1 aggregate defeat to Roma at the round-of-sixteen stage.
Brighton played out a 0-0 away draw against Brentford midweek, further highlighting their recent struggle in front of goal with just three goals scored in their last five. Despite this, Brighton boast the fifth-highest expected goals (xG) tally this season of 1.68, which increases to 1.87 in home fixtures. They've also averaged an impressive two goals per home game.
The Seagulls have been defensively sound this season as well, and have the fourth-lowest expected goals against (xGA) tally in the league this season with 1.31. They've conceded just 1.14 per home game so far, though only 14% of their home matches have ended in a clean sheet.
Brighton’s recent goal scoring problems may be attributed to the absence of both Jaoa Pedro and Evan Feguson in recent weeks, but Pedro did return midweek against Brentford. The Brazilian is Brighton’s top scorer in the league this season with 8 goals. Midfielder Pascal Groß has been very impressive, picking up 10 assists in the league.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta's side will be determined to right last season's wrong and finish the season as Premier League champions. Their recent form in the league has been impressive with them unbeaten in their last ten.
Arsenal’s performance last weekend against Manchester City received a lot of criticism, as the game saw both teams struggle to break their opposition down, resulting in a 0-0 draw. Despite this, the match perfectly highlighted Arsenal's defensive robustness which has seen them record the best defensive record in the division so far.
They have the least expected goals against (xGA) in the league this season with only 0.9 per game which they've somehow bettered, conceding an average of just 0.73 goals in away fixtures so far. 53% of these games have also ended in an Arsenal clean sheet.
Arteta's men have also excelled in attacking quarters, averaging 2.27 goals per away game despite averaging an xG of just 1.69.
🔴 @Arsenal's unbeaten form in 2024 has been something else! 🤯
— Premier League (@premierleague) April 3, 2024
9️⃣ Wins
1️⃣ Draw
3️⃣5️⃣ Goals scored
4️⃣ Goals conceded
6️⃣ Clean sheets pic.twitter.com/OVLKPV6NMR
Prediction
Arsenal predictably enter as heavy favourites but there is little value on offer on the moneyline, with the away side coming in at a best of 11/17.
Brighton's home fixtures have seen plenty of set-piece action this season though, averaging 10.64 total corners across their 14 outings at the Amex. We anticipate this trend to continue on Saturday evening, with Arsenal scoring more goals from set-pieces this season than any other club.