Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven: Betting Preview & Prediction

Borussia Dortmund host PSV Eindhoven for the second leg of their Champions League Round-of-Sixteen tie on Wednesday. 

The pair played out a 1-1 draw during the first leg in the Netherlands. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at Signal Iduna Park. 

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund's home form has been far from convincing as of late. The German side have won just two of their last five matches at Signal Iduna Park, including a 3-2 defeat to Hoffenheim at the end of February. Their most recent outing saw them secure a 2-1 away at Werder Bremen.

Despite the drop in form recently, Dortmund have fared better at home over the course of the season so far. Die Schwarzgelben have averaged 1.92 points per match in their league games at home (W7, D2, L3), compared to an average of 1.85 points on the road (W6, D6, L1). Dortmund have also maintained a +6 goal difference in their home matches, scoring 24 and conceding 18 in 12 games so far. 

Edin Terzic's side have averaged an xG of 1.87 at home which they've exceeded, scoring an average of 2 goals in front of their home fans so far. They are however conceding slightly more than expected, averaging an xGA of 1.32 but letting in 1.5. 

Dortmund take an average of 14 shots a match at home with a 14% conversion rate, and have only failed to score in 8% of home matches. They have also scored over 2.5 goals in 33% of their home matches, whilst also conceding over 2.5 in a worrying 25% of matches. 

Matches at Signal Iduna Park have seen plenty of goals, averaging a total of 3.5 per game so far. 

Dortmund reached the knockout phase after qualifying from a very competitive Group F, which featured AC Milan, Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United. The German side topped the group by three points with an impressive run of form (W3, D2, L1). 

Dortmund have scored eight goals in seven matches so far (1.15 per match) compared to five goals conceded (0.72). Terzic's side have also managed three clean sheets, despite finding themselves in the 'Group of Death'. 

PSV

Eredivisie leaders PSV haven't lost a single league match this season, and have averaged 2.69 points per away match (W11, D2, L0). Their away record in Group B wasn't quite as good however, with the Dutch side winning one, drawing one and losing one in their three games on the road. The loss came away to eventual group toppers Arsenal, who ran out comfortable 4-0 winners in North London in September.

Their near perfect record in their domestic league makes it difficult to predict how Peter Bosz's side might fare against Europe's elite. Nevertheless, PSV have scored nine in seven in Europe this season (1.29 goals per match) and have conceded eleven (1.58 per match). 

PSV have also averaged an average xG of 2.59 in their away matches in Holland, a figure they've exceeded with an average of 3.46 goals on the road. Their defensive record has been impeccable in the league, with 45 away goals balancing against just six conceded on the road (0.46 per match compared to an xGA of 0.98). Dortmund are a considerably better side than the majority of teams in Holland's top division, however. 

PSV have also scored in all of their league games away from home, whilst keeping a clean sheet in more than half (54%). They have only managed a single clean sheet in Europe this season, though. 

Prediction

There can be no doubting the impressive form of PSV in the league, but it's Dortmund's form in the Champions League so far that stands out. Despite finding themselves in the most competitive group, Dortmund topped Group F with relative ease, only losing a single game in their six group fixtures. 

PSV will likely run out comfortable winners in the Eredivisie which they currently lead by ten points. It is unlikely that their Champions League venture will continue beyond this match however, with OddsNow backing Dortmund to win on the moneyline. 

OddsNow's Pick: Dortmund to win outright (8/7 @ vBet)