Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough: Betting Odds and Prediction

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Written by: Bradley Walker

Relegation candidates Birmingham City host mid-table Middlesbrough on Tuesday evening as they look to distance themselves from the relegation zone. 

Boro won the reverse fixture 1-0 in October. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm local time at St. Andrew's. 

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Birmingham City

Birmingham head into the match on the back of a four match winless streak, with their most recent outing being a 1-0 away defeat at Millwall at the weekend. The result leaves them in 21st, just one point above the relegation places. Their home form may provide City fans with hope heading into the Boro match, however.  

70% of Birmingham's league victories have occurred at St. Andrew's, where they have averaged 1.59 points per game (W7, D6, L4). This compares with a pretty dismal away record which has seen them average just 0.63 points per match (W3, D3, L13), only placing greater emphasis on their home games if the club are to retain a Championship side beyond this season. 

Remarkably, the Blues also boast a positive goal difference in their home matches, having scored 26 and conceded 22 so far. Tony Mowbray's side have been clinical in front of their own fans, scoring 1.53 goals per match compared to an xG of 1.27. They've also been relatively solid at the back, conceding only 1.29 goals despite an xGA of 1.39. 

Birmingham's shot conversion rate at home (16%) is double their rate on the road (8%), and City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches at St. Andrew's this season. 

Matches at St. Andrew's have averaged a total of 2.82 goals. 

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough are one of a cluster of sides who aren't in danger of facing the drop but are also highly unlikely to threaten the play-off spots. Boro come into the match after two successive victories last week - the first being a 3-1 win at home to Norwich City before a 2-0 ousting of QPR on the road at the weekend. 

Michael Carrick's side have won three of their last away games, and have averaged 1.44 points per game on the road (W8, D2, L8) compared to 1.33 at home (W7, D3, L8). Boro's scoring record exceeds their xG (1.43) away from home, having averaged 1.78. 

They have endured some difficulty at the back, however. Despite averaging an xGA of 1.41 goals, Boro have shipped an average of 1.72 which could spell trouble given Birmingham's goalscoring habits at St. Andrew's so far. 

Boro have also averaged 10.5 shots in away games with a 17% shot conversion rate, but have kept clean sheets in just 11% of away matches so far. 

Middlesbrough's 18 away matches have averaged a total of 3.5 goals so far. 

Prediction

Boro are already assured of their Championship status next season but are unlikely to mount a challenge for a place in the play-offs, meaning that there won't be too much to play for in terms of league position as we enter the final stretch of the season. 

This compares massively with Birmingham who are fighting for their lives at the foot of the Championship table, with every point crucial if they are to avoid the dreaded drop zone. Coupled with their increased threat at St. Andrew's, Birmingham on the moneyline holds real value heading into the fixture. 

Boro's away matches always tend to deliver goals, while Birmingham's best moments have been on home soil where they continue to exceed their xG in front of their home fans. 

OddsNow's Pick: Birmingham to win outright (7/4 @ Sky Bet); Over 3+ goals to be scored (7/6 @ vBet)

 

 

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