5/1 and 9/2 betting tips for Saturday's two EFL play-off clashes

After a Championship double-header across Thursday and Friday, League One and Two see their respective play-off campaigns commence on Saturday.

Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) runs the rule over both clashes and puts together two Bet Builders he likes the look of.

Leyton Orient vs Stockport betting tips (Saturday, 12.30pm)

Leyton Orient double chance

Orient enter this play-off tie as the underdogs but a bold showing can be expected from Richie Wellens’ in-form side – particularly in this home leg.

The Londoners have been the archetypal late chargers into the end-of-season lottery, winning their last six straight League One fixtures to pip Reading to sixth place, and are a side packed with exciting attacking talents.

Stockport offer up stern opposition but I make the gap between these two in the ‘to qualify’ market slightly too wide, so getting Orient on side for some kind of result at Brisbane Road makes sense.

Charlie Kelman over 2.5 shots

Leading those aforementioned offensive talents is the third tier’s top goalscorer, Charlie Kelman.

On loan from QPR, the 23-year-old should be plying his trade in the Championship next term regardless of Orient’s fate and has taken no less than 110 shots en route to his 21-goal haul in 2024-25.

He’s covered this 3+ goal attempts line in four of his last five outings and with the onus on Orient to earn a first-leg advantage, it’s hard to see him not shooting on sight here.

Owen Moxon over 0.5 shots

Although I’m leaning towards Orient on the day, Stockport will inevitably offer up some resistance and stand-in central midfielder Owen Moxon could be a nice option to boost our returns.

The intelligent midfielder has been on the fringes for County since joining on loan from Portsmouth in January but a recent injury to skipper Lewis Bate has presented the Cumbrian with a chance to shine.

Moxon, despite being deep-lying, is a bit of a long-range specialist and you’d expect him to fire off at least one effort on goal during the 90 minutes.

Jordan Brown over 0.5 shots

Using a similar line of thought, it feels shrewd to include Orient midfielder Jordan Brown on the same shot line as opposite number Moxon. 

Brown joined the O’s in January 2022 from Derby and has grown into a key player at the base of their midfield, making 53 appearances across all competitions.

Though more renowned for his industry in breaking up play, Brown has fired off five shots in his last five matches and in an end-to-end affair, he can do us a favour in extending that record.

Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon betting tips (Saturday, 8pm)

Under 2.5 goals

This play-off tie pits League Two’s second-most prolific attacking side in Notts County against the division’s meanest defensive unit in AFC Wimbledon.

The Magpies will be hoping the lethal front pairing of Alassana Jatta and David McGoldrick can once again work their magic but I’m happy to trust a visiting side who have shipped just 35 goals in 46 games to keep things pretty tight here – even if that means a narrow first-leg defeat.

We often associate the play-offs with drama but typically speaking, first legs tend to be cagey affairs and that makes me lean further towards the unders line.

Riley Harbottle over 1.5 fouls

Aggression and strong defensive stats usually go hand in hand, so getting Dons defender Riley Harbottle on side in the fouls market is a no-brainer. 

The 24-year-old has had a strong first season with the visitors but is partial to the dark arts, having committed 43 fouls in the equivalent of 23 matches during an injury-hit campaign.

It’s 10 games since he failed to commit at least one offence, while eight of those contests have seen him get a ticking off on multiple occasions – making over 1.5 fouls a safe inclusion.

David McGoldrick over 0.5 shots on target

While strike partner Jatta has often grabbed the goalscoring headlines this term, his veteran foil McGoldrick has been the inspirational figure in this County side.

Now the ripe old age of 37, the ex-Sheffield United star has produced several sumptuous strikes, showcasing that his evergreen class remains despite now plying his trade in the EFL’s basement tier.

McGoldrick has managed at least one shot on target in 12 of his last 15 games – and the three he didn’t saw him take a combined 16 efforts – so this bet is unlikely to die wondering.

Matt Hill's best bets for Saturday's two EFL play-off clashes

1pt - Leyton Orient double chance, Kelman over 2.5 shots, Moxon over 0.5 shots, J Brown over 0.5 shots - 5/1 (Bet365)

1pt - Under 2.5 goals, Harbottle over 1.5 fouls, McGoldrink over 0.5 shots on target - 9/2 (Bet365)

0.5pt - 32/1 double (Bet365)