Bayer Leverkusen vs Qarabag FK: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Bradley Walker

Bayer Leverkusen host Qarabag for the second leg of their Europa League round-of-sixteen tie on Thursday evening. 

Leverkusen came from two goals behind to draw 2-2 in the first leg last week and hope to secure a place in the quarter-finals. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time. 

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Bayer Leverkusen

The German club have endured an incredible season so far and are yet to lose a single game in all competitions. They currently sit ten points clear at the top of the Bundesliga and remain one of the favourites to lift the Europa League in May. 

Xabi Alonso's side head into the match following a 2-0 home victory over Wolfsburg in the league. The result saw them land their seventh consecutive win in the Bundesliga. 

Leverkusen's home form has been phenomenal. They've averaged 2.69 points per match at the BayArena in the Bundesliga (W11, D2, L0), scoring 36 and conceding just seven in the process. 

Their expected goal (xG) tally sits at over two goals per home game (2.25), a figure Leverkusen have still managed to exceed with an average of 2.77 goals scored at home so far. Their defensive record is even more impressive, with Alonso's men shipping 0.54 goals so far despite an expected goal against (xGA) tally of 0.8. 

Leverkusen have kept clean sheets in over half of their home games (54%) in the Bundesliga, and have failed to score in only 8% of those fixtures. Their attacking output has been relentless, averaging 15.46 shots on home soil. Remarkably, they've scored over 2.5 goals in 62% of home matches. 

In Europe, Leverkusen have been equally as dominant. 21 goals in seven matches has seen an average of 3 scored per game. They have only conceded five goals in the Europa League so far, two of which came in Azerbaijan last week.

Leverkusen finished top of Group H after winning all six matches, including two victories over Qarabag which saw 5-1 and 1-0 victories for the German side. Leverkusen also kept three clean sheets in the group stage.  

Qarabag FK:

Sitting top of the Azerbaijan Premier League by 23 points, Qarabag head to Germany with an eleventh league title already in the bank. A 2-0 lead over one of Europe's most in-form sides was not in the script last week however, and though the game eventually finished level, Qarabag will have surely snatched your hand off to be in with a chance heading into the second leg. 

The likelihood of them proceeding to the quarter-finals is slim to say the least, though. As noted above, Leverkusen have proven to be almost impenetrable on home turf this season, with little suggestion of Qarabag pulling off the impossible on Thursday evening. 

The quality of the Azerbaijan league does not stand up to that which exists in the Europa League, meaning an examination of Qarabag's domestic form is a pointless exercise. 

The away side have been punching above their weight throughout their European campaign, however. Despite the losses to Leverkusen in Group H, Qarabag secured victories over Molde and Hacken before upsetting Portuguese side in the play-offs with a 6-5 aggregate win. 

In their nine games in Europe, they've scored 15 whilst conceding 16. They have also managed to keep two clean sheets. 

Prediction

Leverkusen rightly enter as overwhelming favourites with no real value offered on the moneyline, despite the 2-2 draw in the first leg.

The home side's goalscoring exploits speak for themselves, particularly at the BayArena, and we anticipate a bruising response to last week's draw by the German side. 

OddsNow's Pick: Leverkusen to win 'to nil' (evens @ 10Bet); Over 3.5 goals to be scored (evens @ Betfair)

 

 

 

 

 

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