Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona put their unbeaten home and away La Liga records on the line in the Spanish capital on Sunday.
Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium.
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Atletico Madrid
Fourth-placed Atletico Madrid are indebted to their peerless record in their home stadium. They have dropped just two home points this term, conceding a stoppage- time equaliser to Getafe after playing the second half a man short in December.
Diego Simeone’s men will aim to avoid a Champions League hangover after Wednesday night’s win over Inter Milan on penalties. They have won all four previous home games immediately following a European outing. Atletico, whose 2.86 average points per home game is the division’s highest, inflicted city neighbours Real’s sole league defeat on the only previous occasion they entertained a top-five side.
Their 2.43 average goals per home game comfortably exceeds their home expected goal (xG) tally of 1.69. Their actual 0.93 goals per home game conceded is only the sixth best in La Liga, yet their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.31 is the sixth worst home record.
On home soil, Atletico’s goal difference of +21 is 16 goals better than xG would predict, and both teams have found the net in 71% of their matches in the capital.
🌟🤔 Who will get the three points? #AtletiBarça pic.twitter.com/Nj8Gnpv1C5
— LALIGA English (@LaLigaEN) March 15, 2024
Barcelona
Barcelona, who were the last visiting team to collect three points at the Metropolitano 14 months ago, saw their four-match winning run on the road end in the goalless draw at Athletic Bilbao last weekend.
Xavi’s men, still languishing eight points behind leaders Real Madrid in third, seek to take advantage of an extra day’s rest following their 3-1 Champions League passage against Italian champions Napoli in mid-week.
The Catalan side (W7, D6, L0) boast La Liga’s last remaining unbeaten away record, with their average of 2.08 points per game the division’s second best; however, they are yet to visit a top-four team.
Barcelona’s 1.85 goals scored per away game is a league high and compares to an xG of 1.67. With 1.15 goals leaked per away game (compared to their xGA of 1.19), their defence is only La Liga’s fifth meanest on the road, where their both teams to score track record is 77%.
Prediction
It is difficult to ignore Atletico's imperious home record and, despite the fact Barca are yet to lose on away turf this season, the smart pick would be with the hosts.