Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Fourth-placed Aston Villa host Wolverhampton Wanderers in an intriguing West Midlands derby on Saturday evening as the home side look to strengthen their grip on a Champions League spot.
Kick-off is set for 5:30pm UK time at Villa Park.
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Aston Villa
Villa will be looking for a strong finish to an impressive season so far. However, their three match winning streak was brought to an abrupt halt by a 4-0 home thrashing at the hands of top four rivals Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month.
Unai Emery's side have since responded with a 4-0 victory over Ajax to secure a spot in the UEFA Conference League quarter-finals, while drawing 1-1 away at West Ham in their most recent league outing.
Villa are the Premier League’s fourth leading scorers so far this season on 60, with only the top three teams having scored more. They average 2.07 goals per game this season, significantly outperforming their expected goals (xG) tally of 1.61.
Their home statistics make for even better reading, with Villa bagging an average of 2.5 goals on home soil which again exceeds their xG of 1.66. They've failed to score in just 7% of home matches in the league this term, and have found the net at least three times on eight occasions already. Ten of their last 14 matches at Villa Park have ended in a home victory.
The Villain’s have only managed six clean sheets all season, though three of them came at home. They have conceded 42 goals in the league, at an average of 1.45 goals per game, slightly higher than their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 1.27. These figures improve slightly in home games, where they've conceded an average of 1.1 per game compared to an xGA of 1.43.
A strong finish will be needed if Villa are to stay ahead of their top four rivals to secure their first spot in Europe's premier competition since winning the European Cup in 1982.
How things stand as The Run In begins 👀#PLRunIn pic.twitter.com/3xEHjgiegf
— Premier League (@premierleague) March 27, 2024
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves’ form in 2024 has fired them into European contention as we head into the closing months of the season. Gary O’Neil’s men are within three points of a European qualification spot having won three of their last four Premier League matches.
Wolves were left to lick their wounds over the international break, following their dramatic FA Cup quarter-final exit at the hands of Coventry City last time out. Despite this, their league form has been very encouraging.
They have scored 42 goals in the league this season, at an average of 1.50 per match. Wolves have also recorded impressive victories away from home, most notably 4-2 at Stamford Bridge and 4-1 at Brentford. In fact, 48% of their league goals this season have been scored away from Molineux. They have significantly outperformed their xG figure of 1.18.
Their xGA figure of 1.54 has proven to be an accurate barometer for Wolves’ defensive exploits this season, as they have conceded an average 1.57 goals per match. They have managed just five clean sheets all season though, with two of these coming away from home.
Prediction
Despite Wolves' strong performances this season, it's hard to look past a home victory on the moneyline, particularly given the away side's defensive record on the road so far. Wolves' lack of clean sheets will have Villa striker Ollie Watkins licking his lips, with the Englishman already having bagged 16 league goals this season.