The third play-off final of a bumper weekend is the League Two edition between AFC Wimbledon and Walsall on Monday.
Adam Drury (@Adam_Drury1) selects 7/5 and 6/1 bets for the game at Wembley, where a place in League One is on the line.
90 minute result – AFC Wimbledon 9/5, Draw 21/10, Walsall 2/1
To win promotion – AFC Wimbledon 10/11, Walsall 11/10
Total goals - Under 2.5 1/2, Over 2.5 7/4
First goalscorer - No goalscorer 6/1, Matty Stevens 6/1, Jamille Matt 13/2, Joe Pigott 7/1, 15/2 BAR
It’s difficult to imagine this opening up into a high-scoring affair considering the context of a play-off final and the two teams involved.
This showdown has traditionally been a little more entertaining than the notoriously nervy Championship equivalent, but under 2.5 goals has still landed in four of the last six editions of the match.
With AFC Wimbledon involved, however, goals are even less likely to be on the cards.
The Dons were the third-lowest scorers in League Two’s top 15 across the whole campaign, despite finishing fifth, and had the best defensive record in the division, conceding 10 fewer goals than the next meanest team.
Under 2.5 goals has landed in their last eight matches, with under 1.5 even landing in five of their last six.
Walsall’s season-long numbers paint a different picture but their recent matches have been nearly as tight as their opponents’.
The Saddlers have seen under 2.5 land in five of their last seven.
With the unders price sitting at around 1/2 across the board, I’m going to chuck a shot for Walsall’s Taylor Allen into the mix to boost the odds.
Allen takes set-pieces and also likes to wind up from open play, taking at least one shot in 13 of his last 14 matches – including two against Wimbledon when the sides met in the league in March.
Considering all of that logic, I’m also going to have a small play on this finishing goalless.
Wimbledon will reduce this game down to the finest margins, valuing the art of defending and prioritising giving nothing away.
Over half of their last 24 league matches have seen a maximum of one goal and four of them have finished goalless.
Walsall have had two 0-0 draws in their last 11 matches, with two others finishing 1-0, so all told, a 0-0 draw is very much in play.
1pt - Under 2.5 goals and Allen to have a shot - 7/5 (Bet365)
0.5pt - The match to finish 0-0 in 90 minutes - 6/1 (BetVictor)