Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Manchester City travel to Madrid to face 14-time winners Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday evening.
In last year’s semi-finals, the Citizens thrashed Los Blanco’s 5-1 over two legs, which eventually led to City’s first ever Champions League title. Carlo Ancelotti’s men will be looking for redemption with hopes of being crowned chamions for the 15th time. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time in the Spanish capital.
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Real Madrid
The Spanish side currently sit at the top of the La Liga on 75 points and are ahead of second-placed Barcelona by eight points. Madrid come into this after defeating German side RB Leipzig 2-1 on aggregate in the round of 16. This followed a dominating performance in Group C, which saw them finish top after winning all six of their group games.
They have excelled in attacking quarters in Europe so far, and averaged an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.08 at home while netting an average of 2.25 goals per game. Madrid have found the net in all four of their Champions League outings at the Bernebaeu so far. Two of these games have seen them net at least three goals.
Madrid were even more impressive defensively, outperforming an already low expected goal against (xGA) tally of 1.07 by conceding just 0.75 goals per home game. Two of their four home matches have ended in a clean sheet.
With centre-back Eder Militao now back, Real Madrid are only without the services of Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba for the fixture.
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— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 8, 2024
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola's side head into the fixture third in the Premier League but secured a 4-2 away win at Crystal Palace on Saturday. The victory made it 25 matches unbeaten for City in all competitions.
The away side also enjoyed a flawless group stage campaign in Group G; they finished top after winning all six of their matches, boasting a +11 goal difference in the process. A 6-2 victory over Copenhagen saw the reigning champions qualify for the quarter-finals.
When away from home in Europe, City have produced an impressive xG of 2.42 so far. They have still overperformed this metric, scoring an average of 4.25 goals per away game so far. City have scored in all eight of their Champions League matches this season. All of these fixtures have also seen them find the net on at least three occasions.
Defensively, they have averaged an xGA of 0.85 while conceding 1.25. Guardiola's men are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home in Europe this term, though they have only conceded more than one in just one match.
Prediction
Madrid have been almost flawless in La Liga so far, and also soared to a comfortable first-placed finish in the group stage. They did however stutter in their second leg tie against RB Leipzig, which also took place at the Bernabeu. Poor finishing in the final third cost the German side the tie against a lacklustre Madrid, with Leipzig averaging a 1.4 xG compared to the home side's 0.91.
Madrid won't fare well if they offer this free-scoring City side the same amount of opportunities, and the champions will be even more confident after ousting Madrid on the way to European glory last term. We expect City to take a win back to Etihad in two weeks' time.