Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Arsenal host Bayern Munich on Tuesday night as the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League commence. Both sides topped their groups with relative ease before relying on home victories to carry them through the round of 16.
Bayern are famously a bogey team for the Gunners, but it’s been a long time since these two clashed in the competition, with the Bavarian giants coming away 10-2 winners on aggregate from their most recent fixture in the 2016/17 season of the competition. Circumstances have changed since then, and Arsenal fans will be looking forward to showing the improvements they have made under Mikel Arteta, who himself got knocked out of the Champions League to Bayern in the 2015/16 season.
One player who is definitely familiar with his opposition is Harry Kane, who is returning to play club football in North London for the first time since he departed Arsenal’s rivals Tottenham Hotspur last summer. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Emirates Stadium.
Recent Form
Arsenal
The hosts have been in fine form, wining eleven of their last thirteen matches in all competitions and only losing once. Arsenal moved past Porto in their round of 16 tie, showing great character to overturn a one-goal aggregate deficit before defeating the Portuguese side on penalties. Their last match in all competitions was a comfortable 3-0 away victory against Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Gunners’ home form is particularly impressive, winning each of their last six consecutive games at home and coming away victorious from every home game in the Champions League this season.
Arsenal have been prolific this season, averaging 2.13 goals per game in the Champions League so far, with an average of 3.25 goals per game in home matches. Their expected goals (xG) tally is however only 1.47, showing how clinical Arteta’s side have been.
Arsenal have been a formidable defensive force in the Champions League this season. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally sits at 1.06, which they’ve greatly bettered by conceding only 0.63 goals per game. No opposition has managed to score at the Emirates in the Champions League this season with Arsenal keeping a clean sheet in every home match.
Spot-on from Saka 🎯 pic.twitter.com/AkIBOjma7i
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) April 7, 2024
Bayern Munich
The visitors come into the tie in poor form after a difficult period which has seen them lose their last two matches in the Bundesliga. Bayern were leading 2-0 at half time in their last match against promoted Heidenheim, before conceding three consecutive goals in the second half to lose 3-2.
Despite a poor season by the usual standards of Bayern in the Bundesliga this year, they have still performed well in the Champions League. They have lost only one match, losing 1-0 away from home to Lazio in the first leg of their round of 16 tie, but it was not a defeat that mattered as Tuchel’s side overturned the deficit comfortably and won 3-0 at home.
The Bavarians have an xG tally of 1.55 in the Champions League this season, which they have bettered by netting an average of 1.88 goals per game. Harry Kane is currently the competition's joint top scorer, netting six goals in the Champions league so far in a season which has seen him score an outstanding 38 goals in all competitions.
Bayern’s xGA tally sits at 1.02, which they have bettered by conceding an average of only 0.88 goals per game in the Champions League so far this season. They have however conceded in three of their four away matches so far and have struggled to keep clean sheets on the road all season, conceding in 79% of their away matches in the Bundesliga.
Prediction
A match of this magnitude is exactly what the Champions League is all about, with two huge and historical football clubs coming together in a highly anticipated knockout clash. Arsenal may find it difficult when they travel to the Allianz Arena in the return fixture but come into this match at the Emirates as favourites.
Arteta’s side have an outstanding record at home so far this season and are in brilliant form. Arsenal have been defensively solid all season but have also improved their goal output to an incredible level recently. With Tuchel’s Bayern Munich side struggling to keep clean sheets on the road and coming into the tie after two tricky defeats, OddsNow expect them to struggle at the Emirates.