Leeds vs Norwich: Championship play-off semi-final betting odds and prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Matt Hill

Tensions are sure to be high at Elland Road this Thursday night as Leeds and Norwich lock horns once again with a spot in the EFL Championship play-off final on the line.

Both clubs know victory on the night will seal a spot at Wembley following a drab first-leg encounter at Carrow Road which ended goalless last weekend.

The action gets underway from 8pm UK time in West Yorkshire.

Recent form

Leeds

Daniel Farke’s Whites have had to dust themselves down quickly having blown a great opportunity to gain automatic promotion in the regular season.

At the start of April, Leeds looked primed for a top-two finish but took just four points from their final six outings, with Leicester and Ipswich able to profit from their slump. 

Still, it has been an outstanding campaign for the Yorkshire giants, who boast a resolute defensive unit which gives their enigmatic attackers a platform to shine.

French stopper Illan Meslier barely had to break sweat to secure his 20th clean sheet of the season on Sunday lunchtime and it is not difficult to see him adding a 21st shutout here.

However, the grave concern for Leeds fans will be where the next goal is going to come from. They have drawn a blank in four of their last six clashes, while 20-goal top scorer Crysencio Summerville has just one strike from open play in his last eight outings.

Norwich

The Canaries head north as huge underdogs to progress, having mustered just one shot on target during a home leg that will have left their fans feeling rather flat.

In many respects, though, it is an achievement for them just to be in the end-of-season shake-up given what a mediocre start to 2023-24 they endured.

When losing 1-0 at Elland Road in late January, David Wagner’s men had lost as many games as they had won in the second tier (12).

However, nine wins and just three defeats from their subsequent 17 league outings propelled them into the top six — even if they did rather limp over the line.

American forward Josh Sargent limped out of the first leg early but is expected to feature, which could prove a crucial boost.

Despite playing just 27 league games this term due to an ankle issue, Sargent has still notched a hugely impressive 16 goals.

Prediction

A cagey first leg should come as no surprise to anyone when you consider the magnitude of what is at stake in these play-off games — especially in the Championship.

Yet that stalemate certainly favoured Leeds more than Norwich and in front of a sold-out Elland Road, it seems impossible to picture the Whites not creating far more opportunities.

Whether or not they take them is another matter, though. 

An early goal would hugely ease the tension among the home support but if that doesn’t come, things could quickly become nervy.

Realistically, Wagner and Norwich would likely be content with this contest going to penalties and given their hosts’ recent profligacy, a low-scoring affair once again looks the bet.

OddsNow’s Pick - Under 1.5 goals - 3/1 (Betfair)