Benfica vs Marseille: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Europa League hopefuls Benfica and Marseille collide at the Estadio da Luz on Thursday in the first leg of their quarter-final clash.
Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time in Lisbon.
Recent Form
Benfica
Roger Schmidt's side overcame Rangers with a 3-2 aggregate victory in the previous round to setup a clash with Marseille after entering the competition due to a third-place finish in the Champions League group stage.
Benfica come into the game after two disappointing results against city rivals Sporting Lisbon, who first dumped them out of the cup over two semi-final legs last week. The two sides met again on Saturday, with Lisbon bagging a 90th minute winner to move four points clear in the Liga NOS title race.
Benfica have won only four of their last eight, including the two losses to Lisbon and a 5-0 hammering at the hands of Porto last month.
The Portuguese side have been free-scoring in the league this season, with 62 goals from their 28 league games (averaging 2.21 goals per game). They've failed to score in just two league matches, both of which came away from home.
Benfica have also averaged the highest expected goal (xG) tally in the division at 1.86, with this increasing to 2.2 in home games, though the difference in quality between the Portuguese league and opponents faced in Europe is stark. This is evidenced through just 1.17 goals scored across their six outings in the Champions League this term.
While they are unbeaten at home in the league, they failed to win any of their three Champions League group stage matches at the Estadio Da Luz, and could only manage a 2-2 draw at home to Rangers in the previous round.
8 teams fighting for the trophy 🏆
— UEFA Europa League (@EuropaLeague) April 8, 2024
Click below to fill in your bracket 👇@bwin_de || #UELbracket || #UEL
Marseille
Jeal-Louis Gasset's men have been in poor form lately, losing four of their last five outings, including a 3-1 away defeat to Lille in Ligue 1. The result leaves them eighth in the French top-flight, five points off Nice in the final European qualifying spot.
Marseille have managed just 41 goals in the league this season, averaging 1.46 goals per match. They've been in much richer goalscoring form in the Europa league though, with an average of 2.4 goals per game, though this drops to just 1.6 on the road. They've only failed to score in one of their away matches in Europe, compared to six in Ligue 1.
Their defensive statistics make for a worrying read, though; an average of 1.8 goals conceded in European away games is concerning, with Marseille shipping two or more in three of their five away fixtures so far. They've also managed just one clean sheet in that time.
Prediction
Benfica predictably come in as favourites given Marseille's dismal defensive record. Though there is a steep drop-off in quality between European competition and the Portuguese league, their free-scoring form this season coupled with the French outfit's leaky defence make the home side the sensible pick for this one.