Aston Villa vs Lille: Betting Odds & Prediction

Aston Villa host French outfit Lille in their UEFA Conference League quarter-final first leg on Thursday evening. 

Unai Emery's side are winless in their last two matches in all competitions, while Lille come into the fixture unbeaten in their last seven. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at Villa Park. 

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Aston Villa

The Midlanders have enjoyed an incredible campaign so far, sitting fifth in the Premier League while still going strong on the European front. Villa have failed to register a win in their last two outings though, shipping seven goals in the process. 

A 4-1 hammering at champions Manchester City last week was followed by a 3-3 home draw with struggling Brentford on Saturday. Villa surrendered a 2-0 lead to the West Londoners before striker Ollie Watkins scored his 18th goal of the campaign to rescue a point for the home side. 

While the results have far from spelled an end to any Champions League aspirations - Villa may still qualify for the competition with a fifth-place finish - Emery will be concerned by the sudden increase in goals conceded. They also shipped four at home to top four rivals Tottenham Hotspur in March in a 4-0 loss, though they had to play the majority of the second half with ten men due to John McGinn's red card. 

Nevertheless, Villa's home form has been fantastic overall. They've averaged 2.19 points per game in the league, giving them the fifth-best in the division, and are also yet to taste defeat in European competition after five matches at Villa Park. 

All five have ended in a home victory, with Villa bagging 12 goals in that period with just two conceded. Three have also ended in a Villa clean sheet, with the Midlanders recording an exemplary expected goals against (xGA) tally of 0.7 in those fixtures. 

Their 2.4 average goals per game also exceeds an already impressive expected goals (xG) tally of 1.8 in European home fixtures, with Villa bagging two or more goals in four of the five matches. Two have seen them bag three or more, including a 4-0 home victory over Ajax in the round-of-sixteen second leg last month. 

Lille

Paulo Fonseca's men head to England after disposing of SK Sturm Graz at the round-of-sixteen stage with a 4-1 aggregate victory over the Austrians. Lille are undefeated across in ten matches in the competition so far, winning six and drawing four. Three of those draws have been in away fixtures though, with the French outfit much more dominant on home turf.

While Lille haven't been as freescoring as their English counterparts, they have still averaged 1.4 goals per away game in Europe which falls in line with an xG tally 1.57.

It's in defensive quarters where Fonseca's men have really excelled; they've conceded an average of just 0.4 goals per away match so far, despite recording an xGA tally of 1.09 in those games. 

Lille have also found the net in four of their five away matches in this competition while also managing a clean sheet in three. Interestingly, they've also been the first to score in three of these games, though they are yet to face opposition of Villa's calibre heading into the tie. 

Prediction

Testament to their strong home form, Villa come into the match as firm favourites. Not only have they won all five of their home outings so far in Europe, but their opposition have also dipped on the road in comparison with their own form on home soil. 

Despite Villa's dominance in the West Midlands, we don't expect a high-scoring affair due to Lille's impressive record at the back; they've conceded an average of just 0.89 goals in the league this term, though this does increase to 1.21 in away fixtures. 

OddsNow's Pick: Aston Villa to win (4/6 @ BetFred); Under 2.5 goals scored (11/10 @ Betfair)