World Grand Prix 2024: Saturday predictions and best bets

Alamy

Written by: Matt Hill

Only four men remain in darts’ 2024 World Grand Prix after a dramatic week of upsets with the sport’s latest major champion to be crowned on Sunday evening.

Before that though, two titanic semi-final clashes take place tonight and our in-form arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) is on hand to deliver his thoughts and best bets for tonight’s clashes.

A bittersweet evening for me last night as my 100/1 outright bet on James Wade finally fell by the wayside — the Machine knocked out by one of the few men who went off an even bigger price than him in 150/1 poke Mike De Decker. 

It stings a bit as someone who has followed the Belgian off a cliff for the last couple of years, though my overriding feeling is delight at seeing him finally bring that terrific talent to the biggest stage.

Quotes of 300/1 for De Decker in the PDC World Championship market available as recently as a week ago are now a thing of the past and if the Real Deal can eke out two more wins in Leicester, you’ll be doing well to get 50/1.

As for Wade, I didn’t feel he lost much in defeat. All three sets went 3-2 in legs, with De Decker’s proficiency in getting away — a hallmark of his fairytale run — proving pivotal.

I still think the veteran’s game is in a great place and he’ll continue to come under consideration for me in the coming weeks and months.

After that first game disappointment, it was a nice pick-me-up to land three winners from three Friday selections.

Ryan Joyce stunned Rob Cross as advised at 2/1, before Dimitri Van den Bergh overcame a slow start to topple Joe Cullen 3-1, landing 4/5 and 17/10 winners.

The Dreammaker was well below par in set one but, as usual, grew into the contest and I never felt Cullen was in good enough nick to live with Dimitri if he found third or fourth gear.

As for Joyce, he did exactly what I hoped he would. Relentless is not a fashionable or pulse-racing performer but he is bloody hard to beat, particularly in this format.

The Geordie is also making incremental gains as he settles into this tournament, having added a couple of points to his average on each outing (85, 87 and 89 respectively).

No doubt he faces the sternest test of all in Luke Humphries, who continues to tick along in imperious fashion — if not at his very best.

Cool Hand only averaged 86 in defeat of Jonny Clayton and found himself in a bit of bother when 2-0 down in set three, having shared the first two stanzas with the Ferret.

Clayton missed set darts in that third leg and Humphries, who had been a mile back, duly stepped up to deliver a 146 checkout that turned the contest on its head. 

Such moments display why he is a world champion, why he is the overwhelming favourite for this title and why, even when out of form, he’s still extremely difficult to get beat.

Going into tonight, Humphries is no bigger than 8/15 to lift the title with De Decker a best price of 11/2, Van den Bergh 13/2 and Joyce a chunky 12/1.

Time for a look at the two contests to see if there’s any value to be found.

World Grand Prix darts predictions — Saturday, October 12

Mike De Decker vs Dimitri Van den Bergh

Mike De Decker's dream run at the World Grand Prix may end tonight (Alamy)
Mike De Decker's dream run at the World Grand Prix may end tonight (Alamy)

Firstly, it’s important to note the step up in distance at this stage. 

As of this year, the Grand Prix semi finals are now best-of-nine set contests, which means players require two extra sets to win compared with matches they’ve been playing over the last two rounds.

That will be a big test for both De Decker and Joyce, who don’t have the vast experience of their respective opponents in such long, bruising encounters — though there’s nothing to say they won’t pass the test with flying colours.

De Decker is making a habit of breaking new ground, having brushed aside Wade 3-0 in his first ever major quarter-final last night. As mentioned, the scoreline perhaps flattered him a tad but ultimately, he had the answers in all the big moments.

His reward for that is an all-Belgian semi-final, taking on his compatriot and room mate Van den Bergh, who opened up for this contest as a narrow favourite but has since drifted out to be underdog.

Van den Bergh wouldn’t argue with that assessment either, having declared that his compatriot is “the real favourite for the title”. I’m not sure Dimitri quite has a grasp of how odds are compiled, though I did understand the sentiment.

He argues that De Decker is doubling better than anyone, which is correct. Yet so many variables go into deciding these kinds of contests, which have me favouring Van den Bergh.

For one, the pair’s close friendship is bound to impact things. Playing a mate on stage is rarely easy,  as most of the game’s biggest stars have attested to in interviews.

Van den Bergh is a master of such situations though. My memory casts back to when he disposed of good friend Damon Heta at the UK Open, showing no mercy and not deviating one bit from his usual polarising practices.

Dig a little deeper and you will find that Van den Bergh has won the last five meetings between the pair, the bulk of which have been on the Pro Tour — a format which rarely gets the ex-Matchplay champ playing his best stuff.

Therefore, I think we can deduce that such contests fire Dimitri up and when I add in his exemplary major record over the years, he looks a bet at 21/20 with Star Sports.

For the spectacle, I’d like to see De Decker repeat the outstanding levels he has done all week but I fear the slower pace, coupled with who he is playing, could lead to a dip in performance.

Therefore, I’ll also have a tickle on Dimitri -2.5 sets at 3/1 just in case this ends up being a damp squib.

Prediction: De Decker 2-5 Van den Bergh

Luke Humphries vs Ryan Joyce

Ryan Joyce looks a bit disrespected in the betting markets against Luke Humphries (Alamy)

You won’t get many major semi-finals in this current era where one runner is as short as 1/8 and the other is a 5/1 outsider!

While I’m not going to bullishly put Joyce up to spring the biggest upset of all, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say those odds underestimate a man who has now dumped out Josh Rock, Nathan Aspinall and Rob Cross in consecutive rounds.

There’s been no fluke about it. This format just suits him to a tee with consistent doubling, steady scoring and the ability to produce timely combination finishes.

Over a standard legs format on the bigger stage, these prices would feel closer to correct. Humphries would have extra time to make his scoring felt and ultimately owerpower Joyce.

Yet with a double start, Joyce with nothing to lose and Humphries showing the odd chink in his armour, you have to be looking at backing this to be closer than the markets suggest.

The sets line has been put in at 6.5, with 8/11 about over (so both players to win at least two sets) looking appealing, if not quite juicy enough for me.

Thinking deeper about how I see this panning out, it feels like a game where Joyce will probably start well before falling short down the stretch. Perhaps back-to lay types can exploit that angle on the exchanges.

In terms of a sportsbook though, Bet365 offer a nice “Double Result” market relating to who will lead after two sets and who will eventually win the match.

I really like the 13/8 about the match being level after two sets, with Humphries going on to triumph. Given they have Humphries a 1/7 shot, you are effectively getting 13/10 about the first two sets being shared, which seems very generous to me.

My other play in this match is Joyce to land 2 or more 100+ checkouts. 

This was something he achieved emphatically against Cross, with a 135 on the bull followed by a champagne 132, where Relentless found two bullseyes before planting D16.

Given the significantly longer format here, quotes of 6/5 about him covering that line again look fair.

Ultimately, I’m expecting Humphries to prevail but not in the cakewalk that most books seem to be forecasting.

Prediction: Humphries 5-3 Joyce

Matt Hill's World Grand Prix betting tips — Saturday, October 12

Van den Bergh to beat De Decker - 21/20 (Star Sports)

Van den Bergh -2.5 sets handicap - 3/1 (Bet365)

Humphries vs Joyce draw after two sets, Humphries to win - 13/8 (Bet365)

Joyce 2 or more 100+ checkouts - 6/5 (Bet365)

 

Meet the Author

Matt Hill


Head of Content

Matt has now been operating in the sports content and betting space for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with industry giants Betfred and LiveScore.

A qualified journalist, he began his career reporting on his beloved Carlisle United FC as a teenager and still follows the Blues avidly to this day, as much as life allows.

One of the keenest punters around, Matt is never shy of an opinion and builds the bulk of his betting portfolio around antepost football markets and PDC darts events.

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