World Grand Prix 2024 preview: 33/1 Dobey can light up Leicester

Darts returns to sports fans’ screens this month as the World Grand Prix kicks off on Monday, October 7th. Our arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) takes a deep dive into the latest renewal of the double in, double out major and shares his best bets.

Ah, the World Grand Prix. It’s always a good sign business is about to pick up in the world of darts when this glorious week trots around every October.

Looking for a good time to get into the greatest game on earth? I’d heartily recommend right now. This unique event is considered one of the game’s “major” titles and is always an absorbing, engrossing and quality-laden affair, played out between 32 of the game’s most in-form and elite operators. 

At risk of sounding like a Premier League football manager, there are simply no easy games at this level and anyone really can beat anyone in the first couple of rounds. That’s partly down to the high-class field but also thanks to a truly unique format.

This is the only tournament on the PDC calendar which sees the “double in, double out” ruling used — something which anyone who has ever tried their hand at a pub league will be all too familiar with. 

Simply put, you can’t start scoring points in a leg until you’ve hit a double. For a professional, you’d expect this to be a minor inconvenience but boy, does it change things.

Generally speaking, you can expect around 10 points shaved off the match averages — so where a 100+ average may be considered a good performance under normal circumstances, 90+ becomes a similar benchmark here.

Even as one of the world’s best, you are going to have legs where hitting that starting double proves problematic. So, do you stick with your favourite double when things are going wrong, or do you try mixing it up mid-match?

Michael van Gerwen has lifted this trophy six times and he needs little invitation to try something different. It’s commonplace to see MVG going all around the board in this format. Tops, 16s, 8s, 19s, 12s, 18s. Whatever he fancies, really. 

Meanwhile, someone like Gerwyn Price — a three-time finalist here and the 2020 champion — is unlikely to ever deviate from his beloved double top. So it really is horses for courses.

All things told, you just need a clear plan and a strong mindset. Headloss is easy when the game flow is so different from normal, so there are undoubtedly some players more suited to this test than others.

Matt's World Grand Prix outright selections

World Grand Prix 2024 beting preview

Reason to oppose the favourites

Luke Littler is, inevitably, a 4/1 favourite to win this on debut but for all the factors discussed above, I’m happy to give the Nuke a wide berth. 

As the teenager keeps showing us, he’s not your average youngster and if anybody can lift this title on their first crack, it is him. However, if you exclude Phil Taylor winning the inaugural edition, nobody has ever done so. 

If I was picking out one small flaw in Littler’s phenomenal game (and I am reluctant to do so, really), it would be his occasional tendency to chase doubles around the board. Nobody can touch his 109.84 first-nine darts average from the last three months but in that same period, he ranks 49th in the PDC for checkout percentage. That’s enough to put me off at 4/1.

His old foe and World Championship conqueror Luke Humphries is a close second favourite at 9/2 and up until about a month ago, that would have really tempted me.

Cool Hand is the defending champion in Leicester and for me is more reliable than his namesake at the back-end of legs, with the scoring power to stay with him in the early phases. I’ve backed Humphries for similar prices to win this year’s World Championship and still believe he’s a solid proposition to defend his title at Ally Pally — a venue, format and challenge that to me is tailor-made for him.

He could quite easily defend his crown in the East Midlands but I must admit, he seems to just be going through a slight dip in form at the moment to my eye.

This is backed up in the underlying numbers. For 2024 as a whole, Humphries boasts a checkout percentage of 41.96% (the seventh highest in the PDC). But since August 1st, he is down at 37.98%, which ranks him all the way down in 63rd position. 

Is finishing something you can just switch on and off when you choose? Perhaps. I certainly think the elite lads save their best for the big stage — but it’s a concern in a tournament where you’re taking aim at the double twice as much as in any other.

For many, Humphries will have dispelled those concerns over his form with a long overdue Players Championship victory on Thursday, beating his round one Grand Prix opponent Stephen Bunting in the final.

But Humphries himself added that he hasn’t been at his best in recent weeks and that he feels he may need to make “a small change” to find another level and “keep up with the very best”.

All things considered, it’s enough to put you off at 9/2.

Someone who has actually lifted their finishing levels in the last two months is mighty Michael van Gerwen.

As mentioned, the Green Machine loves this format having lifted the trophy six times, so we shouldn’t be surprised to hear his 45.96% checkout percentage since August 1st is the second-highest on the circuit. He’s tuning up that side of his game at the optimum time.

Some would argue, very simplistically, that MVG is past his best. After all, 20 of his 29 ranked PDC TV titles were achieved before 2018. He’s secured just nine in the six years since (paltry, I know) — yet interestingly, three of those were this very trophy. Including his very first major title...

Ten years ago, a darting dynasty began! 🇳🇱🔥

Will Michael van Gerwen lift his sixth World Grand Prix title tonight? 🏆

Warm up for tonight's double-start final by watching extended highlights of his 2012 victory against Mervyn King! 👇https://t.co/gIJQSSlG3r pic.twitter.com/k8lRuVFzPY

— PDC Darts (@OfficialPDC) October 9, 2022

There’s something about MVG and double in, double out which just clicks. He seems to relish the unique nature of it and handle the dips better than most. Even last year, when losing a mini-classic 3-2 to Chris Dobey, he was a whisker away from two nine-dart attempts and missed a match dart at the bull to win it 3-1. Would he have gone on to make it seven titles had that dart gone in? Quite possibly.

What’s more, he comes into this event in rich form. A fortnight ago, he dismantled a high-quality set of opponents to win his first title of 2024 at Players Championship 21. A week later, he followed it up with a first Euro Tour title in 16 months, beating Gian van Veen 8-7 in a magnificent final to lift the Hungarian Darts Trophy.

At a standout 6/1, Van Gerwen looks a tasty proposition on form — though a rematch with last year’s conqueror Dobey looks likely to await in round two.

Reluctantly resisting the Ando train

I had to fight with every fibre of being in my body not to put up Gary Anderson at a rapidly reducing 12/1, having opened last week at 16s. No player in world darts is in better nick than the Flying Scotsman right now — but, crucially, almost all of that fabulous form has come on the floor.

I was one of many who took fancy prices for Anderson about last year’s World Championship, noticing signs of his renaissance in its early stages. And while the last 18 months have been a joy to watch for fans of the 53-year-old icon, his big TV appearances have generally underwhelmed.

In 2023, He failed to make it beyond the second round of the Masters, the World Matchplay, the World Grand Prix or the Players Championship Finals. A great Grand Slam of Darts run, only ending with a 16-14 loss to eventual champ Luke Humphries in the quarter-finals, hinted at that bad run ending but sadly, his Ally Pally effort never really caught fire — beating Simon Whitlock and Boris Krcmar as expected before tamely exiting to Brendan Dolan.

A first round exit at this year’s World Matchplay means those same reservations remain and, as much as I want to believe Ando will bring his brilliant best to the Mattiolo Arena, I’m not confident enough to wager on it.

The final nail in any coffin in terms of backing him pre-tournament for me was his record in this event. 

Not only is this one of the few ranking titles Anderson has never won, but he has failed to make it beyond the second round in eight of his 14 Grand Prix tilts.

It may just be that this tournament isn’t his bag. Conversely, perhaps he will use that as motivational fuel — only time will tell.

Anderson’s first round opponent is a fellow former world champion in Michael Smith, who will have his suitors at 20/1, as will Gerwyn Price at 14s.

I’m happy to overlook both for differing reasons. Smith’s form has been extremely patchy for most of 2024 and while he undoubtedly is a dangerous operator in the latter end of majors, I always worry about him in short format openers.

After winning the World Championship last January, 2023 ended up being a bitterly disappointing year. Ironically, he made the Grand Prix semi-finals but that was actually the only TV major he won more than two matches at.

What is more, that success last year felt like an anomaly. Smith has actually exited the Grand Prix at the first hurdle in seven of his 10 visits. 

Price, on the other hand, has a fine recent record here. The tournament has definitely lost a bit of magic for departing Dublin due to COVID-related reasons in 2020, yet in those subsequent four years, the Ice Man has had two semi-final appearances, one runner-up effort and one title win.

But let’s be honest, Price’s major drought is a major worry. If you exclude the World Series of Darts Finals (invitational event) and the World Cup of Darts (a pairs event), the Welshman hasn’t won a big TV title for approaching three years.

Clearly this format — and a less rowdy crowd than normal — suits the 39-year-old but I couldn’t be playing him at 12/1.

In-form Dobey can deliver a shock

Now I’ve systematically ruled out most of the favourites, time to concentrate on where my money is going. Yes, it’s with that man Dobey, who has already had a mention for KO’ing Van Gerwen 12 months ago in a second-round classic.

Hollywood ticks so many boxes in what I’m looking for in a Grand Prix contender. Firstly, his record at this unique tournament is extremely promising.

In four renewals, the Tynesider has reached the quarter-finals twice and the semi-finals once. The year he exited in round one was a result of Simon Whitlock averaging north of 100, which in real terms equates closer to 112 when you factor the double-in element.

That leaves him with a 64% win ratio in this format, which is the record of someone who enjoys this unique challenge and, most tellingly, has an understanding of its challenges.

I talked about having a clear plan and Dobey definitely has that. You’ll notice him start on his trusted D16, before switching over to the T19 segment on dart two. If he likes the lie of dart two, he’ll stay there. If not, he’ll go upstairs to T20. Expect to see plenty of 146 and 149 starts from the world #12, who in full flow often looks like he’s placing them in the board.

Another feather in Dobey’s cap is form. The Bedlington-born thrower is the only PDC player with three Pro Tour titles to his name this term, adding the latest of those on Wednesday afternoon. 

After that latest success, he declared that “confidence is key” and having averaged nearly 101 across his seven games, it’s clear he is brimming with it heading to Leicester.

DOBEY STUNS MICHAEL VAN GERWEN!! 😲

Oh. My. Word.

It's simply RIDICULOUS from Chris Dobey as a 156 finish sends Reigning Champion Michael van Gerwen OUT of the 2023 BoyleSports World Grand Prix 🤯

What a game, and what a win for Dobey!

📺 https://t.co/yNO8z3ftB8 | #WGPDarts pic.twitter.com/OOhyC9HIAJ

— PDC Darts (@OfficialPDC) October 5, 2023

Sometimes in darts, you get a feeling that certain players are ready to take that next step and Dobey is a man screaming out to me as ready to land a really big one. 

Of course, you could argue he has already done so by winning last year’s Masters (an elite field, no doubt), which in turn earned him a crack at the Premier League where he more than held his own over 16 weeks.

Yet we all know deep down that the top lads want one of the “big six” - the Worlds, Matchplay, Grand Prix, UK Open, Grand Slam or Premier League. Those are the titles that leave you with a legacy in this sport’s history and Dobey is more than good enough to land a few of them in the coming decade.

Most crucially for me, as a bettor hunting for value, it’s all about price and while you’d be hard pressed to say he’s the best bet at something like 10/1, he’s absolutely a value runner at 33/1.

That price factors in a second-round rematch with MVG, who used to have a hex over Dobey but these days are virtually sharing the wins and losses out evenly. That is, of course, providing he can get past the horribly out-of-form Joe Cullen who has only been mustering mid-80s averages on the floor for the last couple of months.

There’s no point looking too far beyond that at this stage, though it’s worth noting with both Littler and Humphries in the top half of the draw, his second-round match would theoretically pose his biggest test until the showpiece. But sport isn’t won on paper, as we all know!

If the 33 goes, I’d still happily be a backer all the way down to 25s. So fill your boots and cross your fingers!

Throw a dart at the well-oiled Machine

Those who have followed my darts tipping exploits will know I can rarely resist a big price and when I assess those at the lower end of this market — south of say, 50/1 — there’s one name that stands out from the rest.

Now, James Wade is a long time between drinks at the World Grand Prix but is technically the second-most successful player in the field when it comes to this format. A champion in 2007 and 2010, the Machine has fond memories of this event.

Bizarrely, his recent record has been absolutely abysmal, with just two match wins in the last nine years. That perhaps goes a long to explaining why there is some 80/1 (100/1 with a Ladbrokes “boost” function) hanging around on him, because on form, Wade is a danger here.

I think everyone knows that when James Wade starts scoring well and gets into a good frame of mind, he’s a dangerous man. I believe both of those boxes are firmly checked at the moment, too.

At Players Championship 22 earlier this month, we saw Wade equal his best run of the year when romping to the semi-final, beating the likes of Martin Schindler, Gabriel Clemens and Callan Rydz before being halted by an inspired Gary Anderson.

Three days later, he channelled that same energy on the Euro Tour, recording impressive victories over Dimitri Van den Bergh, Gerwyn Price and Wessel Nijman en route to the quarter-finals, where Rydz enacted some revenge.

The signs were good. So good, in fact, that Wade decided to not even bother turning up for this week’s Pro Tours to enjoy some time off before his trip to Leicester.

Most importantly, the veteran appears in a very good place psychologically. 

Wade’s mental health battles are no secret and undoubtedly they have taken a toll on his on-oche performance on occasion. Yet in more recent times, he seems much more aware of those challenges.

Even small things, like changing his walk-on music to “I’m Still Standing” by Elton John, tells you that this is a man content with where he is in his long and storied career, but also a man who still has something to prove.

I really like how much positivity is bursting out of him at the moment. Comments like “I knew I was never going to get beat” and “even when I’m behind, I still feel so confident” are not the kind of lines I typically associate with someone who can be very downcast and matter of fact.

Wade takes on another enigma in his opening match in Peter Wright. That game itself feels like a pick’em, but if Wade can prosper there, I really do think he has a deep run in the locker.

At 80/1, it’s worth paying to find out.

Matt Hill's World Grand Prix 2024 outright bets:

Chris Dobey - 33/1 EW (Ladbrokes/ Coral)
James Wade - 80/1 EW (Ladbrokes/ Coral)

You can check out more of Matt's darting opinions over on our new Odds Now YouTube podcast, Missed Doubles, below. Be sure to subscribe too!