Oscar Valdez vs Liam Wilson: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Mexico’s Oscar Valdez (31-2, 23KOs) faces Australia’s Liam Wilson (13-2, 7KOs) in a twelve-round super-featherweight encounter in Glendale, Arizona on Friday.
The pair headline the Top Rank-promoted card, which also features an undisputed minimumweight showdown between Seniesa Estrada and Yokosta Valle.
Tale of the Tape
Valdez comes into the fight on the back of a loss to Emanuel Navarrete for the WBO featherweight title. Despite entering as favourite, Valdez suffered his second career defeat after the judges announced Navarrete a unanimous decision victor after twelve rounds. The defeat came 16 months after Valdez was dropped and eventually outpointed by Shakur Stevenson, surrendering his WBC 130lb title in the process.
Wilson's last defeat also came at the hands of Navarrete, where he was stopped inside nine rounds by the Mexican in February last year. The bout sparked controversy however, when Navarrete was afforded 27 seconds to recover from a fourth-round knockdown following a Wilson left hook. The Australian also accused the Mexican's team of tampering with the scales at the weigh-in to ensure the champion weighed-in under the super-featherweight limit.
Wilson has since secured two victories since the defeat, both coming via unanimous decision after ten rounds in his native Australia. The 28-year-old's only other defeat came against Joe Noynay in July 2021, where he lost via fifth-round stoppage. He avenged that loss with a second-round knockout eight months later.
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Prediction
Wilson stands at 176cm with a 178cm reach, compared to Valdez’s height at 166cm with 168cm reach. Valdez has however proven his ability to fight and win against bigger men, perfectly highlighted by a devastating tenth-round knockout win over Miguel Berchelt in February 2021. The latter held a slight height advantage over Valdez but was laid out by a thunderous overhand right which saw Valdez become WBC champion at 130lbs.
Wilson showed tremendous courage against Navarrete, but also proved fairly easy to hit for the Mexican. Navarrete landed an average of 26.7% of his power punches against the Australian, and floored in the ninth with a right-hand. Valdez has not won inside the distance since the Berchelt win over three years ago though, with OddsNow backing the Mexican to win over the distance.