Hill's Hotshots: Back this 7/1 EFL acca on Saturday

It was nice to have a profitable week of selections last time out, even if my foolish loyalty to Rotherham was the only thing depriving us of a glorious full house.

Millers fans will be glad to hear I’ve been true to my word and left them out of the equation this week — so a huge congratulations to them on their inevitable success against Huddersfield.

Sunderland did the business against Burnley at 11/5, while Preston and Luton duly played out a low-scoring affair for 21/20 winner.

All told, that equates to 10.5pts returned from a 7pt stake. If I could make a 50% profit on my total outlay every week, I’d be a very wealthy man.

If you only play accumulators, you have to realise that you’re going to have some nice wins but they are going to be accompanied by many, many more losses.

That’s not for everyone. We all have varying levels of risk aversion and you have to find an approach that works best for your mindset.

If you like to chase the big win, by all means go for it. But if you prefer to keep things ticking over with regular, smaller winners, then singles are probably the way to go.

Whatever your approach, I hope you can find some helpful pointers by following this column.

Good luck this weekend!

Matt Hill's best EFL bets for Saturday, August 31, 2024

• 2pts - West Brom to beat Swansea @ 10/11 (Quinn Bet)
• 2pts - Leyton Orient to beat Shrewsbury @ 7/5 (General)
• 2pts - Carlisle vs Tranmere Under 2.5 goals @ 20/23 (Betfair)
• 1pts - West Brom, Leyton Orient and Carlisle vs Tranmere U2.5 treble @ 7/1 (Betfair) 

Total staked: 7pts

2024-25 P/L: -6.7pts

Selection #1 - West Brom to beat Swansea (10/11)

I’m on record describing Carlos Corberan as a Premier League level manager and nothing in West Brom’s impressive start to the season has left me wanting to re-think that stance.

The Baggies have bounced out of the traps this term with impressive Championship victories at QPR and Stoke respectively, either side of an equally credible 0-0 draw with title favourites Leeds at the Hawthorns.

Josh Maja, who you may remember best for his fleeting role in Netflix doc Sunderland ‘til I Die as a young pup, has started the new campaign in dream fashion with four goals in three outings — including a marvellous hat-trick against QPR.

It’s heartwarming to see him doing so well after a combination of bad luck and injury issues, which have caused a hugely promising career to stall somewhat.

But the real star of the show thus far has been academy graduate Tom Fellows who, at the time of writing, remains a Baggies player despite Premier League interest.

A wide player with a devastating ability to beat a man and follow it up with a pinpoint delivery, the 21-year-old already has three assists this season and can count Everton, Ipswich and Southampton among his suitors.

I sincerely hope Fellows hasn’t completed a deadline day move by the time you read this but even if he has, I think West Brom will have too much for Swansea this weekend.

The Welsh outfit have been a model of consistency in recent Championship seasons, with four top-ten finishes in the last six campaigns.

Last term was a turbulent one, with Mike Duff’s brand of football failing to live up to the expectations of the locals. He was axed in December and Luke Williams was poached from Notts County as his replacement, putting an emphasis back on pretty possession football once again.

And while the 43-year-old has overseen improvements over the last eight months, the Swans are still lacking the efficiency and consistency of a promotion-challenging outfit.

If the club’s board and fans can stay patient with Williams, steady progress appears likely over the next two or three seasons as he gradually moulds the squad and club in his image.

Yet this season, I think we will be left to see only flickers of their capability — with savvier sides like West Brom able to take advantage.

Fellow promotion chasers Middlesbrough made light work of the Swans at home on the opening day and a 1-0 final score didn’t do justice to the dominance they displayed.

I’m anticipating a similar theme here and quotes of nearly EVS about a home win look worth taking up.

Selection #2 - Leyton Orient to beat Shrewsbury (29/20)

Last week, I managed to find the winner of a clash between two sides with perfect records. Now, I’m hoping to repeat the trick in a game with two teams who are still searching for their first point of 2024-25.

Between them, Shrewsbury and Leyton Orient have played six and lost six, which means whoever comes out on the wrong end of this one will really be feeling the heat.

I often think in games such as this, any advantage of playing at home is lost. Shrewsbury will be hoping to foil that slightly far-fetched theory, but hear me out.

Football fans aren’t exactly renowned for their calm and understanding nature when things are going badly, are they? Most of us are prone to hitting the panic button early and demanding change — it’s the nature of the best these days.

So if you’re on a bad run and a few passes go astray early, the crowd inevitably get concerned. Concern quickly turns to frustration, and frustration can so easily become anger.

Is this my sole reason for opposing Shrewsbury in this contest? No, of course not. Quite simply, I just feel Orient have been far more impressive of the pair thus far.

The Londoners could hardly have been handed a tougher start to their league season. Bolton at home, Charlton away, Birmingham at home — all sides well-fancied to be pushing for promotion.

They lost all three games by a one-goal margin, taking 29 shots and conceding 29 as well. Ultimately, Richie Wellens’ men have been on the wrong side of fine margins.

Their general play has been strong but individual mistakes have proved costly, particularly from young loanee goalkeeper Zach Hemming.

After last weekend’s 2-1 loss to Birmingham, Wellens did not hold back in telling the press the stopper has “cost his side several points” and that he needs to “do better”.

Such criticism might seem a bit abrupt to a neutral but the Orient boss has proven himself as an outstanding man-manager over the years, so I’d suggest he knows what he’s doing.

He drives high standards and to be fair, his players aren’t exactly far from hitting them. It feels like a matter of time before things turn.

Compare that with Paul Hurst’s Shrews, who have taken 23 shots but given up a whopping 44 in the same period, and it’s clear which of these two sides are competing better thus far.

Worryingly, the home side have also been comprehensively outplayed in most of their outings this term — a trend that continued with a midweek drubbing at home to Bolton in the Carabao Cup. 

In that 2-0 reverse, Hurst’s men gave up 21 shots on their goal and had some poor finishing to thank for keeping the scoreline tight.

I worry for the Shropshire outfit’s prospects, to be honest. They look short in a couple of areas and generally, you can only flirt with relegation so many times before it catches up with you. 

Anyway, in the short term, I have no hesitation siding with Orient at just shy of 6/4.

Selection #3 - Carlisle vs Tranmere Under 2.5 goals (20/23)

It’s a first appearance of the season for my very own Carlisle United in this column, which will no doubt leave some of you treading with caution.

It can be hard to separate emotion from logic in betting sometimes — never more so than when it’s your own club involved. 

Generally speaking, I look to avoid Carlisle games like the plague unless someone is clearly overpriced in the player prop markets (that’s where some obscure knowledge can come in handy).

However, this weekend’s clash with Tranmere has all the makings of a low-xG encounter, which has suckered me into a play on under 2.5 goals at just shy of even money.

Most Carlisle fans find themselves feeling very conflicted at the moment. 

Off the pitch, we’ve quite simply never had it so good. The Jacksonville-based Piatak family, who completed their takeover of the club midway through last term, have piled millions into rejuvenating our tired infrastructure and are bursting with enthusiasm about taking the club to new heights over the coming seasons.

However, on the pitch, things have been abject for over a year now. Last term, the Blues’ long-awaited return to League One ended up being an unmitigated disaster, winning just seven and losing 30 of their 46 games in the third tier to seal a miserable relegation.

It was a campaign that would’ve left 99% of managers looking for a new job. Yet local lad and club legend Paul Simpson, who has now overseen the club’s last three promotions across two separate stints in charge, was admirably given a chance to turn things around this season.

Really, Simmo had no right to take our old squad into the third tier in the first place, so it makes a refreshing change to see some loyalty shown by new owners in the face of adversity.

Make no mistake though, promotion is expected this season — so heavy defeats to Gillingham and MK Dons either side of a narrow derby win over Barrow represents a shakier start than both fans and manager had hoped for.

It gives this home game with Tranmere a feel of “must not lose” as a result, which should suit a Rovers side who are displaying a conservative approach themselves under former Southampton boss Nigel Adkins.

Having started with two stalemates against Notts County and Port Vale, Tranmere then nicked a 1-0 win over Walsall last weekend despite losing the xG battle 0.19 to 2.03.

While such defensive stability is to be admired, much, much more is going to be needed in forward areas if they are to compete for a play-off berth this term.

In the meantime, backing their unders line looks a no-brainer — particularly against a home side playing under big pressure.

At the time of publish, Matt's three selections pay a best price of 7/1 in a treble, available with Betfair.