Hill’s Hotshots: Back this 7/1 EFL acca on Saturday

It was great to have the EFL back last weekend, even if it did start on a rather sour note from a personal perspective.

Having made the short hop to Priestfield for my "local game" only to see my beloved Carlisle tonked 4-1 by Gillingham, I then found myself scrolling through the full-time scores to discover all three of my opening day selections had been turned over.

Oh yes. We're back, baby!

Then again, I’ve never been one to dwell on a bad result so I’ve sufficiently dusted myself down, ready to go again this week with some useful form now in the book for all 72 sides.

It’s hard to know how much to read into Carabao Cup results given the huge amount of rotation that goes on, though I certainly don't think it does any harm to see a team pick up a victory — particularly if they didn’t on opening weekend.

So much of sport is a mental battle, particularly at the elite level, so it’s no surprise to see some slow-starting fanbases already getting twitchy about their manager's future.

Preston took that to a whole new level by parting company with Ryan Lowe before Burnley and Luton had even kicked off their campaigns on Monday night — though I can’t say I was that surprised given some of the noises coming out of Deepdale in the last six months.

Anyway, let’s crack on with this weekend’s slate. 

Matt Hill's best EFL bets for Saturday, August 17, 2024

• 2pts - Middlesbrough to beat Derby @ 23/20 (Quinn Bet)
• 2pts - Rotherham to beat Bristol Rovers @ 21/20 (general)
• 2pts - Huddersfield to beat Stevenage @ 4/5 (general)
• 1pt - Middlesbrough, Rotherham and Huddersfield treble @ 7/1 (Quinn Bet)

Total staked - 7pts
2024-25 P/L - 7pts 

Selection #1 — Middlesbrough to beat Derby @ 23/20

Never back the early kick-off, you say? Well, you’ll be severely limiting your options if you insist on following that trail of thought this season.

Of the 36 scheduled Matchday 2 games across the Championship, League One and League Two, only 25 will take place in the traditional Saturday 3pm slot.

Do I like this change? Absolutely not. I’ve made peace with it though, so find myself still keen to get with Middlesbrough at odds-against, even if it means my treble may already be sunk before the Sky Sports vidiprinter has fully booted up.

Boro were deserved victors over Swansea on the opening day. Emmanuel Latte-Lath’s first-half penalty proved the decisive contribution but in truth, they should have won by a much wider margin.

A glance at the shot maps shows the hosts racked up a whopping 2.83 expected goals, giving away only 0.47 in the process. In everything but the scoreline, this was a thrashing.

The enigmatic Isaiah Jones led the Swans’ backline a merry dance with his fast feet and won the decisive spot-kick but was also guilty of wasting two or three gilt-edged chances.

And though Michael Carrick rang the changes against Leeds in midweek, a resounding 3-0 win for his second string at Elland Road will only have lifted squad spirits further.

Here, they visit a Derby side who are expected to struggle back in the second tier and lived up to those modest expectations when losing their opener 4-2 at Blackburn.

The Rams had plenty of attacking threat but were all too often exposed at the back — a weakness that was also on show during the midweek 2-1 cup win over League Two Chesterfield.

The iPro should be rocking on Saturday lunchtime but I think this Boro side are well equipped to deal with that atmosphere and I see them having too much for their hosts in forward areas.

I was pleasantly surprised to see them floating around above even money.

Selection #2 — Rotherham to beat Bristol Rovers (21/20)

Rotherham fell to a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Exeter on opening weekend but as a loyal Evans-gelist (meh), I’m not ready to ditch big Steve’s Millers just yet.

There wasn’t much in that contest at St James’ Park, with Evans uncharacteristically opting to question the performance of the match officials afterwards.

Alas, his men bounced back emphatically in midweek when disposing of Crewe 2-1 in the Carabao Cup. While the scoreline may not scream of dominance, the underlying stats certainly do.

The hosts had 27 shots to their opponents’ seven and were over three goals superior in the xG stakes, sticking at things well to be eventually rewarded with an 86th-minute winner.

Evans pointed out that his side’s running stats were “40-50% up” in midweek compared with their opening-day trip to Devon, which suggests some strong words behind-closed-doors did the trick.

He’s also made an interesting addition to his squad this week with Mallik Wilks who — although Sheffield Wednesday fans may feel otherwise — has some serious talent if he can just learn to apply it regularly.

On Saturday, Rotherham host a Bristol Rovers side who started their third-tier campaign with a 1-0 home win over Northampton last weekend in what was a pretty turgid affair.

Gas fans will have gone home on a high after Bryant Bilongo’s 92nd-minute winner but without that late strike, boss Matt Taylor would undoubtedly have been facing some sterner questions over a mediocre showing.

Appointed last December, Taylor took 10 points from his first five games as Rovers boss but then oversaw a real sluggish end to the season with 14 losses in their final 24 outings.

They were comfortably outplayed by a so-so Cardiff in midweek and having failed to muster even 1.5 xG across their opening two clashes, I have serious reservations about the former Exeter boss' long-term prospects at the Memorial Stadium.

I think the market has probably overreacted to this pair’s opening-day results, so any quotes north of evens on a home win should be promptly snapped up.

Selection #3 — Huddersfield to beat Stevenage (4/5)

Sticking in League One for my final selection this weekend, Mike Duff’s Huddersfield appear to have a wonderful chance of maintaining their 100% start against Stevenage.

The Terriers were overlooked in most of the antepost promotion discussion but are already threatening to make that omission look silly after convincing defeats of Peterborough and Morecambe in their first two outings.

When a club struggles for an extended period, it’s easy to slip into a malaise. I have felt it first-hand with Carlisle in years gone by.

Standards slip. Defeats go from being a frustration, to somewhat tolerated and then accepted. For the fans, attending games becomes less of a pleasure and more of an obligation.

After losing the 2021-22 play-off final, Huddersfield went on to win just 23 of their 92 subsequent Championship games — first narrowly staying up via some Neil Warnock magic in 2023, only to sink tamely into the third tier the following campaign.

But the good news is that every rut tends to break eventually, which is exactly what I think the Yorkshire outfit have done by hiring Duff.

Yes, there’s no doubt the 46-year-old struggled at Swansea but that hire never quite felt a good fit. The jobs he did at both Cheltenham and Barnsley before that showed exactly what he is about.

When allowed to craft a side in his own image, Duff is — for my money — one of the best tacticians in the entire EFL. I think it’s a case of when, not if, he ends up back in the second tier.

In the short term, his side should be able to outclass a steady but unspectacular Stevenage on Saturday based on all the evidence we have acquired thus far.

Alex Revell will have been pleased with his side’s start, edging past a Shrewsbury team expected to struggle this term before losing an entertaining Carabao Cup tussle with Norwich’s second string 4-3.

But really, I’ve not seen anything from them to set my pulse racing and I think when they come up against a well-drilled, confident Terriers side, they will ultimately be found wanting.

At time of writing, Matt’s treble of Coventry, Blackpool and Rotherham pays a best price of 7/1 exactly at Quinn Bet and Bet Goodwin (as of 3pm on Friday, August 16, 2024).