SD's Racing Ramble: The stark numbers behind Premierisation farce

Having amassed a loyal following on our Races Now YouTube channel thanks to a combination of outstanding tipping and forthright opinions, the inimitable 'SD' has now signed up for a weekly column right here on OddsNow.com! 

This week's edition takes a closer look at the premierisation of horse racing.

Amongst all the chatter about the Festival last week, there was an important report on the Premier Racing initiative. 

Regular readers will be aware that I regard premierisation as an absolute stinking idea. But for those who don’t know the targets and their current performance, they are below for your perusal:

Target 1: Total betting turnover on the 33 Saturdays with only three fixtures in the protected window to outperform the other 19 Saturdays by 6% to 7%.

Outcome: Too difficult to measure

Target 2: Total betting turnover on Sunday evening fixtures to outperform midweek (Tuesday to Thursday) floodlit fixtures by 15% to 20%.

Outcome: 3.6% rise

Target 3: Slow the decline in betting across the entire fixture list compared with 2023, with Premier racedays showing 1%-2%better relative performance than the remainder of the fixture list.

Outcome: The average Premier fixture turnover is down 7.5% Core 5.9%.

Target 4: Halt the decline in total attendances at Premier fixtures in 2024 and then increase by  5%-10%in 2025 versus 2023.

Outcome: Total attendance, down by 0.7%, average attendance up by 0.4%.

Target 5: With 41 Saturdays moving from their traditional start times and four fewer fixtures, that Saturday attendances will have recovered to within 25,000 of their current levels by 2025.

Outcome: Average Saturday crowd dropped from 6,497 in 2023 to 6,480 in 2024.

Target 6: Recognising the impact on those streaming, watching the racing channels or for customers in betting shop, the target is to reduce the number of clashing races on Saturday afternoons in 2024 from 8% to 5%.

Outcome: Drop from 7.9% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024.

Target 7: Increase the number of horses who race in Britain by 2.5% by 2025 compared with 2023.

Outcome: A total of 1% fewer horses ran in 2024 compared to 2023.

Target 8: Increase the number of horses rated 85+ on Flat and 130+ over jumps. On the Flat, to increase by 5% in 2024 and a further 5% in 2025. Over jumps, to increase by 2.5% in 2024 and a further 2.5% in 2025.

Outcome: Increase on Flat of 3.5%, decrease over jumps by 9%.

Target 9: Total prize-money at Premier fixtures to increase by £6-7m in 2024 and for total prize-money at the remainder of the fixture list to return to close to their current levels by 2025.

Outcome: Total prize-money at Premier racedays increased by £7.33m

Target 10: Grow average field sizes at Premier and core fixtures in 2024, both Flat and jumps, compared with 2023.

Outcome: Better than last year 2023 over both codes.

Conclusions

Some things have become clear.

A drop in turnover for premier fixtures, greater than core, is an elephant in the room. It’s a total mess. 

It’s fairly clear that the 4pm or 10am starts are a total and utter ballache for stakeholders. Those with public transport needs have no chance. Those who go by car end up peeved. Stable lads and lasses are getting up at the crack of dawn, or even slightly before, just to get to the races.

The premier concept has become a gargantuan mess. There are too many fixtures. The inclusion of Winter Derby Day at Southwell, a nondescript day at Newcastle highlight it. It is little wonder betting turnover has declined.

To use affordability checks as an excuse is a weak and diluted defence.

Offering up solutions

It is very easy to criticise, however, so here is a multiple point common sense plan for the fixture list which may be practically possible;

1) Cut Premier Days to 73. It’s a strange number but is metric-based. It’s 5% of total fixtures. Required to showcase the best of British racing. If you don’t make it, tough. It’s not the end of the world. Make Joe Public know more about the 2,000 Guineas and the King George.

2) Introduce a decent marketing strategy for the above. This includes making the horse and the history of races at the forefront, rather than some washed up reality TV star. The public may be interested with an appropriate strategy.

3) Most fixtures are racecourse owned, but a significant cohort are BHA owned. For the racecourse owned ones, there is very little that can be done, they are assets on a balance sheet but the BHA ones need to be got rid of. Less is more and this could easily be done.

4) The metrics above prove that 4pm or 10am starts do not work. They are awful. Get rid.

5) Make all cards seven races. It’s the right number. Eight or nine race cards are a nonsense, while with six you feel short changed.

6) Do not allow abandoned fixtures to be moved elsewhere within a racecourse group. If a racecourse cannot be looked after properly, then it is the owner's problem.

7) Allow flexibility on fixtures when people want to go and bet on racing. Have more Sundays and less Mondays or Tuesdays.

8) Fine racecourses for late off times over three minutes for circumstances within their control. Give these funds in prize money to those who can get off on time

9) Publish a contingency on races being rescheduled and to where on a monthly basis in the event of abandonment . Only allowed for graded races

10) Remove 35 minute gaps on the flat. It’s utterly ridiculous

11) Ban racecourse gallops unless strict criteria are met. If a horse can run, make it do so. (Sorry if you choked on your muesli, Nicky).

A Dream in the Morebattle

It’s the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on Saturday. I thoroughly recommend you go. Kelso is a racecourse that cares about its participants more than most. The view from the roof is fantastic and it’s a lovely day out.  I wouldn’t miss it for the world.

Florida Dreams will find this track much more suitable than the helter skelter of Musselburgh last time and appeals as a fair price. He was just getting into the race latest when a blunder two out paid for his chance. 

He has been magnanimously dropped a pound and this looks a great opportunity to cash in at a double figure price.

For more SD racing insight, be sure to subscribe to the Odds Now and Races Now YouTube channels, and follow Races Now on X (Twitter).