Focus On The Flat: Flower sprouts into clear 1000 Guineas favourite

Written by: Adam Smith

Though the bulk of horse racing headlines are currently centred around the national hunt season, Races Now's expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) constantly has one eye the other side of the fence.

In the second edition of his brand new Focus On The Flat column here on OddsNow.com, Adam takes a look at a shake-up in the 1000 Guineas market and

Early flat action prompts annual Guineas shake-up

With the Cheltenham Festival out the way, now really is the time to focus on the flat. But the start to the new flat campaign is disjointed to say the very least.

The Curragh had their first fixture of the season on the Sunday after Cheltenham. It’s then a week until the next Irish flat fixture at Naas.

Meanwhile, in Britain, it’s the opposite of starting with a bang. The Lincoln at Doncaster on 29th March, then a two-week gap until the Greenham at Newbury with the Grand National in between. It is what it is.

But the signs are there. We’ve had our first fixture and as seems to happen every single year, the week after Cheltenham sees the first moves in the Guineas ante post markets. And it’s the 1,000 Guineas which is most interesting at the moment.

My horse to follow for the season, Giselle, was taken out of the 1,000 Guineas a couple of weeks ago. And it feels that more high profile removals from the market are imminent.

Flower could bloom with other contenders doubtful

Last year’s champion two year old filly Lake Victoria has been weak on the exchange for a while now. Stablemate Fairy Godmother hasn’t been seen since June. Verse Of Love is any price you like on the machine and could well be injured. So that’s three of the first four in the market with big question marks over their participation at Newmarket on the first Sunday in May.

As a result, Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten Fillies’ Mile winner Desert Flower has shortened up to 2/1 generally, and getting shorter all the time. She does look head and shoulders above what could be a depleted field.

As I’ve already said on this column, there has to be a bet to be had at a bigger price, but it’s identifying which horse which is the tricky part. Something simply has to come out of the woodwork in the coming weeks, most likely in a trial at Newmarket or Newbury.

If you can identify one with potential now and back it before it hopefully runs well in (or wins) a trial, you could be onto a good bet. But that’s much easier said than done.

As usual, there’s a load of Aidan O’Brien potential runners of which we have no idea if they’ll run or not at this stage. January (2nd in the Fillies’ Mile), Merrily (winner of the Group 3 Oh So Sharp) and Bubbling (winner of the Group 2 Rockfel) to name but three.

40/1 Cathedral could be divine intervention

Amo Racing’s Cathedral is on my shortlist.

Currently 40/1 having finished second behind Merrily in the aforementioned Oh So Sharp Stakes. She was sent to that Group 3 on the back off a Lingfield maiden win in September and hit the front way too early at Newmarket for a filly on just her second start.

Clearly bred to be good, given she’s from the same family as last year’s Arc winner Bluestocking and will definitely get the mile trip if aimed for the Guineas. Ralph Beckett may well be the best trainer in the country and he’s currently got six entered in the Guineas for six different owners.

The pack will be shuffled, but Cathedral may be the ace amongst them.

Back to the Curragh. It might be over five months since the end of last season, but some things never change. The first two year old race of the year was won by Adrian Murray for the third year running.

Power Blue providing first season sire Space Blues with a perfect start to his new career with his first winner in dominant fashion. And the Irish Lincoln was won by a well backed Tony Martin horse in Orandi. Who’d have thought it?

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