Focus On The Flat: Wonderful Winter Derby and key changes for 2025

Alamy

Written by: Adam Smith

Though the bulk of horse racing headlines are currently centred around the national hunt season and its all-consuming Cheltenham Festival, Races Now's expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) constantly has one eye the other side of the fence.

Adam rounds up an eventful Winter Derby and discusses a few programme changes in the latest edition of his new Odds Now column, Focus On The Flat.

Winter Derby a strong renewal

Flat racing fans received a planned but much needed morale boost over the weekend with the Winter Derby fixture at Southwell (formally held at Lingfield until 2023), where Royal Champion won in impressive fashion for the underrated duo of Karl Burke and Clifford Lee.

As the time of year and all-weather surface elude to, unfortunately the Winter Derby often has minimal impact on the British flat turf season. In fact, the eleven most recent winners going all the way back to 2014 did not win a subsequent UK turf race between them.

But 2025 could be different, particularly with the first three home full of potential for varying reasons.

Royal Champion travelled well and won with authority at the line, doing much his own work up the straight. That's now wins at Listed and Group 3 level since returning from an ultimately fruitless working holiday in Australia.

He's already proven on turf and a Royal Ascot winner in his own right. In the immediate future, he'll be heading onto further international assignments but it wouldn't surprise you if he had an impact at the big meetings on British shores this summer.

Military Academy arrived at Southwell as the typical unexposed Gosden type. He didn't have his first run until August of his three year old campaign but finished a good second on Saturday, and has the Far East and the riches that go with that in his sights now.

Already a two-time turf winner on his first two starts and a half brother to Fillies' Mile winner Commissioning, he'd be interesting in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot – a race won by Royal Champion in 2023. 

Of no surprise to regular viewers of Races Now, I had my eye firmly on Richard Hannon's Persica before and during the Winter Derby.

I tipped him on several occasions last season with some success. Trying eleven furlongs for the first time last weekend, which I thought was too far for him, and so proved to be the case in the race.

He was 7/2 in the ante post betting and went off a double figure price on the exchange – clearly fitness, as well as the trip, might have been a factor. 

Persica did run an absolute stormer in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot in October, though. A race stacked with quality and one that he looked to have a chance of winning at the two pole, before emptying out late on.

Any type of ground appears workable to him and he could have a big year when fit and dropped back in trip. I'd be aiming him for the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot over the stiff straight mile if he was mine, with a warm up at the same track on their trials day.

Hawkeye spies new target and changes afoot

Wimbledon Hawkeye was one I had on my 2,000 Guineas ante post shortlist but connections are now leaning more towards the Derby than the Guineas, with the Dante at York likely to be his first port of call.

York Racecourse have another Group 1 race to add to their bow (Alamy)
York Racecourse have another Group 1 race to add to their bow (Alamy)

Elsewhere, there are some changes to the upcoming flat season which I thought were worth noting.

The City Of York Stakes at the Ebor Festival will become the UK's first 7f Group 1 in August this year. It's long overdue and a credit to York's continued hard work across the board.

The Long Distance Cup on Champions Day has also been upgraded to Group 1 status. No surprises there, though I'm not sure the Pattern really needs two staying Group 1s in the space of three weeks. The other, of course, being on Arc weekend at Longchamp.

But the Long Distance Cup has been a Group 1 in all but name for some time, so maybe it's the Prix Du Cardan that needs to do more to attract a bigger field (just the five runners last year and six in 2023) and boost their prize money, which is currently £100,000 less than their Ascot equivalent. 

And finally, Champions Day are introducing a two year old race to their card in October.

Again, it's no real surprise as they've been making noises on this for a few years, but a six furlong conditions race in the middle of October wouldn't have been near the top of my list for changes required to the flat season.

Just three weeks after the six furlong Group 1s at Newmarket, too? Not for me.

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