Focus On The Flat: First look at the Lockinge as stars renew rivalry

Written by: Adam Smith

Horse racing's flat season is firmly up and running, meaning our resident expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) is in his element!

In the latest edition of his Focus On The Flat column here on OddsNow.com, our man has an early look at the 2025 Lockinge Stakes, with a long-priced fancy to boot.

2025 Lockinge Stakes - big race analysis

The flat season is in full swing and the first UK Group 1 for older horses is less than a month away.

The Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on May 17th is a straight mile race with a stunning roll of honour that includes Frankel, Night Of Thunder, Baaeed and many more icons from yesteryear.

And at the top of the market, as I write, we have the English and Irish Guineas winners from last year – and that’s exactly what this race should have.

2024's big guns head the market

Rosallion and Notable Speech met twice last year, where it was one apiece.

Rosallion looked all over the winner of the 2,000 Guineas last May, particularly to people like me who backed him, but it was Notable Speech – the 16/1 shot – who was sneaking into the race slightly out of picture to mow down Rosallion late on.

Richard Hannon’s charge got his revenge when the pair next met at Royal Ascot though, where the Guineas winner was way back in seventh.

It might be one all on the scorecard but it’s fair to say Rosallion came out of those two races with the bigger reputation standing. And the current Lockinge market appears to agree with that, given Rosallion is 2/1 and Notable Speech is 9/2 – despite the pair both being officially rated 122.

On quick ground, I do think Rosallion is the better horse, though maybe not 2/1 vs 9/2 better.

Rosallion’s 2024 season was over early as a minor injury saw him miss the Sussex Sakes at Goodwood (which Notable Speech duly won in his absence) and Hannon upped sticks thereafter, with his four year old’s preferred fast ground being less likely at that time of the year.

Notable Speech continued his stellar three year old campaign with the aforementioned Sussex win, before becoming the victim of a pretty mad Prix Du Moulin in September and finishing a more than respectable third in a predictably chaotic four-bend Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar.

This race is all about these two in my opinion and I’d love to see them line up on May 17th. Yes, there are plenty of other good horses who are entered at this stage, but they A) might not run, and B) don’t excite me as much as the Guineas boys from last year.

Best of the rest

Ladies make up three of the next four slots in the ante post market, most notably with last year’s Irish 1,000 Guineas Fallen Angel.

She had a somewhat disjointed 2024 with that standout performance at the Curragh, before then being unable to quite replicate that form in her three other starts.

Tamfana also deserves a mention, having been a typical David Menuisier star player last year.

Certainly not a standout as a juvenile to the wider racing fan, she was busy, consistent, often underestimated and got that all important Group 1 win in the Sun Chariot Stakes.

I'd suggest softer ground would be more to her liking and she has a higher official rating than Fallen Angel.

Back to the colts, Dancing Gemini is the only leading contender that we’ve seen on the track so far this season, where he produced a career best in the Listed Spring Mile at Doncaster winning in the style of a horse that should be contesting Group 1s.

If we were talking final decs, then there is no way Dancing Gemini would be 12/1 for this race but factored into that price is the fact he might run elsewhere. Trainer Roger Teal says he’ll run in the Bet365 Mile at Sandown on April 25th then decide between the Lockinge or Prix d’Ispahan, which is in France a week later and over a furlong further.

I’m not sure Dancing Gemini has the turn of foot to beat Rosallion or Notable Speech, anyway. He’s bred to stay further and did finish sixth in last year’s Derby.

Likely no-shows offer mid-market value

With Alcantor (French trained), Elmalka (aiming elsewhere), Lake Forest (never ran over a mile), Maljoom (now residing in the Middle East), Diego Velazquez (entered but the Lockinge not mentioned for him by Aidan O’Brien in at least three stable tours) and Kinross (entered in case it comes up soft) all unlikely to run, there are only two more worth mentioning.

Persica is a horse I like and tipped to win on seasonal reappearance at Newmarket – but will only run if it’s soft ground. And in truth, trainer Richard Hannon will be hoping Persica doesn’t run, as that would simultaneously result in fast ground lover and stable priority Rosallion not running.

Juddmonte have had a cracking start to the season with their Classic contenders though and will be hoping that spills over into the older ranks with the likes of Lead Artist.

A dual Group three winner last year having not ran as a juvenile, he’s another that could run in the Bet365 Mile at the end of April and he’s certainly not a million miles off the top two with another winter to develop.

And with more than a handful of horses to come out of this race, 16/1 looks more than fair to me for an ante post bet. YouTube viewers will have seen me advise as such at 25/1 last week, too.

Is he up to beating the Rosallion and Notable Speech? Maybe not on what we’ve seen so far. Could he go off a lot shorter than 16/1 on the day? Absolutely.

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