Focus On The Flat: Classic analysis and a 50/1 1,000 Guineas fancy

Written by: Adam Smith

Horse racing's flat season is firmly up and running, meaning our resident expert Adam Smith (@Smido11) is in his element!

In the latest edition of his Focus On The Flat column here on OddsNow.com, our man has a glance at the weekend action and more of those all-important Classic updates.

We are properly into the flat season now. The sun has been shining (in the main), the Guineas trials from Newbury and Newmarket are in the books and we just two weeks away from the first Classics of the season.

2000 Guineas market shaken up

Let us start with the 2,000 Guineas on May 3rd.

In the last 15 years, the favourite of the 2,000 Guineas has been 4/1 or bigger on only two occasions. For weeks and weeks, it’s had a massively open look to the race. That was until Field Of Gold smashed up a deep looking Craven Stakes field on Thursday – more on that race later.

Twain had been the ante post favourite at 5/1 but I had him down as a weak market topper, quite possibly only in that position as the default number one contender from Aidan O’Brien.

Shadow Of Light and Scorthy Champ, like Twain, will be going straight to Newmarket. So that leads us to the trial winners and their potential impact on the big race.

Up first was the Greenham at Newbury, which looked a weaker race than the Craven. Jonquil did the business in Berkshire and visually it was nice.

He settled, travelled and quickened from near the pace. But the bare form suggests he would need to step up significantly again in two weeks time if he is to take the big one.

Rashabar brought a decent level of form to the table and Jonquil beat him nicely into second. But other than Brian Meehan’s productive two year old, those further back wouldn’t blow you away.

Well-backed favourite Al Qudra lead but emptied out very quickly. Second favourite Chancellor was disappointing, not for the first time. Jonquil finds himself as a general 14/1 shot on the back of that performance which I think is about right.

Golden Craven performance produces new favourite

The Craven looked a more than decent renewal beforehand with Wimbledon Hawkeye, Field Of Gold, Aomori City and New Century all running with a degree of credit in Group 1s at the back end of last season.

New Century actually won a Canadian Grade 1 as a juvenile. But the most interesting part to the Craven to me was the presence of Opera Ballo and the fact he was not ridden by Godolphin number one William Buick.

Unbeaten in two Kempton starts this year, I was pretty excited to see Opera Ballo wherever he turned up. But I was ultimately disappointed as he pulled way to hard and blew his chance.

But let’s have it right, the Craven was clearly about one horse and that was Field Of Gold, who was majorly impressive.

Well backed, some slight traffic issues and bang on top when the gap opened, before bounding clear. He went from 25/1 into 3/1 fav in the click of a refresh button.

This isn’t a horse who’s come onto the 2,000 Guineas radar from nowhere. He’s a Juddmonte owned £530k purchase who won the Sweet Solario at Sandown last summer and ended his season with a fourth in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day – form which has worked out very well.

So ,Juddmonte have won both trials and clearly have some decisions to make about who goes where. But make no mistake, on that Craven performance, Field Of Gold could well fill a glaring gap in the John Gosden CV by winning a 2,000 Guineas.

Cosmic drifts as Harrington shows her hand

Away from the official trials, we saw another Juddmonte colt Cosmic Year in action at Kempton but didn’t learn a lot other than that he is fit and well.

An SP of 2/9 and a winning distance of five lengths in a Class 5 Novice Stakes where the second, third and fourth were making their racecourse debuts.

Cosmic Year found himself as short as 8/1 for the 2,000 Guineas on the back of just one novice win in September and that price was unchanged after his Kempton romp – but drifted to 12/1 after the exploits of his aforementioned ownermates.

Next, news from Jessica Harrington in Ireland, who has two exciting Classic contenders for 2025. Racing Post Trophy winner Hotazhell is French Guineas bound and the Harrington team will therefore rely on Green Impact to fly the flag at Newmarket.

Green Impact got the better of Ballydoyle’s Delacroix on two occasions last year, latterly in a Group 2, and Delacroix has already been out to advertise the form this season in nice fashion.

1000 Guineas still looks a puzzle

As I’ve said in this column before, the 1,000 Guineas is ripe for an ante post bet and there must be value somewhere – it’s just finding that likely runner with a chance at a big price that is the difficult part.

And the fact the trials at Newbury and Newmarket were won by horses not even entered in the first fillies Classic of the season doesn’t help matters.

Duty First scooted up in the Fred Darling at 33/1 and is likely to be supplemented for Newmarket as a result. The first six in the Fred Darling had SPs of 33, 40, 14, 80, 40 and 125/1, so it’s safe to say the form is questionable.

But to be fair to the winner, she did have some nice place form last year and has clearly done well over the winter for Archie Watson. Duty First is 16/1 for the 1,000 Guineas as we speak.

Over at Newmarket, Zanzoun won the Nell Gwyn in nice style having travelled really strongly on the rain softened ground. She came into the race rated 83 and John Gosden said afterwards she may well be ground dependent for future targets.

Juddmonte have Red Letter as an option for the 1,000 Guineas, so it’s far from certain Zanzoun will be back at Newmarket in two weeks’ time. I'd say more likely France, for their Guineas.

Orbit looks worth a flyer at 50/1

One I thought ran an absolute cracker in the Nell Gwyn was eventual second Celestial Orbit, and I’m putting her up as a bet at 50/1.

An impressive Listed winner at Sandown last July where she could have won by double the official winning distance if she wanted to, young trainer Ollie Sangster upped sticks for the season on the back of that Sandown victory before returning in the Nell Gwyn this week.

Awkward out the stalls through bad timing rather than misbehaviour and at the back of the pack early doors as a result, she ran free in the first two furlongs before settling in last. She made her move at the two pole and went by nearly all the field in a matter of strides, including decent yard sticks Arabian Dusk and Nadra.

By the time she got to second place at the half furlong mark, the winner (Zanzoun) had gone and Celestial Orbit was eased the last few strides.

I thought that was a great effort in the circumstances and a perfect trial for the Guineas. She also has an entry in the Irish and French equivalents which is factored into the price, but I see no reason why she shouldn’t run at Newmarket.

The top of the ante post market remains similar to before. Desert Flower is still the current 6/4 favourite, as she has been for some time. Last year’s Fillies’ Mile winner will be going straight there.

We have previously reported Aidan O’Brien mixed messages on Lake Victoria, 2024 champion juvenile filly, who said she might not make the 1,000 Guineas but she’s being trained for it – make of that what you will. She’s 6/1 second favourite but would be at least half that price if confirmed to be running.

Away from the top two in the market and the inconclusive trials, there’s not a whole lot to report.

With a load of once or twice raced novice winners still entered in the 1,000 Guineas that have not been seen in 2025 (Ralph Beckett alone has five that fit this description), surely a bunch of them won’t run, which leads me even more to back Celestial Orbit at this stage.

She’s had a run, ran really well in a trial and available at 50/1 in a market that could fall apart.

Smido's antepost selection for the 1,000 Guineas - April 16, 2025

1pt EW - Celestial Orbit - 50/1 (general - 3 places)

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