Fowler on the Festival: Can anything touch Jonbon in Champion Chase?

There are now just five weeks to go until the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and Odds Now have enlisted the help of national hunt enthusiast Harry Fowler to keep you abreast of all the key developments.

Catch Harry’s column every week between now and March to stay on top of the big stories and market moves from horse racing’s most anticipated meeting.

Last weekend we saw the final trial leading up to the feature race on day two of the Cheltenham Festival – the Champion Chase.

The Game Spirit at Newbury was full of horses that it would be fair to say a bit to prove if they were to emerge as genuine Cheltenham contenders. Matata was the 11/8 favourite after being heavily backed following the withdrawal of Sir Gino, leaving a competitive field of five.

However, the race went the way of outsider of the field Master Chewy, beating Liberty Hunter into second. The winner has halved from 50/1 to 25/1 for glory in March, whilst both Liberty Hunter and Matata moved from 25/1 out to 33/1.

Those prices probably tell you all you need to know, really. Jonbon remains a rock-solid favourite for the Champion Chase at 4/5 and, for many, will be banker of the week material.

He looks to be better than ever and could be a tough nut to crack, though if there is one main worry with Jonbon, it’s his record at Cheltenham. He has had 20 runs in his life, winning 17 and finishing second three times - with all three of those runner-up efforts coming at Prestbury Park.

Other than that, it's a matter of what he could face; starting with current second favourite Gaelic Warrior.

Rated a 7/1 chance, he is almost completely impossible to weigh up at this stage. He has had two runs this season over in Ireland, both at Leopardstown. It is very well known he doesn’t like it there, to put it lightly.

Of course, his record at Cheltenham is far more encouraging having landed the Arkle last March, in an albeit much weaker-looking field. He's going to need the ground to come up quite soft to be seen to best effect, too.

The other Willie Mullins horse worthy of a mention is the 11-year-old Energumene (best price 9/1). He's had two runs this season, beaten last time by Jonbon on a day where the ground was simply too quick for him.

Soft ground at Cheltenham, with two runs under his belt already, and I believe he could be the one to cause Jonbon the most issues. The choice of Paul Towenend would be very interesting if both Energumene and Gaelic Warrior show up here, which I think is looking most likely at this stage.

Back on English shores, it would be remiss not to mention King George second Il Est Francais, currently a 7/1 chance like Gaelic Warrior.

He does have entries into both the Ryanair and the Champion Chase at this stage and his trainer recently said they will run him in the Ryanair providing Fact To File doesn’t run in the same race.

With my previously stated opinion that Fact To File will indeed be switched to the Ryanair, I do think there is a live chance that Il Est Francais comes here. It would really shake up this race and add to an electric pace which should already be set by proven front-runners Matata and Solness.

The latter, alongside Marine Nationale, is rated a 10/1 chance and they look to be the only genuine contenders at double figure prices.

Solness has won both of the most recent big chases in Ireland, beating both Marine Nationale and Gaelic Warrior on both occasions. His style of running from the front has made him hard to beat but he certainly hasn’t stolen those races – he sets a quick tempo and doesn’t stop late on.

I do have slight reservations on him given he’s put in two huge efforts in those victories and it would be another, probaby even more significant, effort to repeat the trick at the Festival.

Marine Nationale does appeal, however. I do think he is improving with every run, and that looks like a trend which should continue in March. Whether he can win, I'm not so sure but a place looks very much on the cards.

Harry's 2025 Champion Chase prediction:

1st - Jonbon

2nd - Energumene

3rd - Marine Nationale

Sir Gino out for the season

As mentioned earlier, Sir Gino was initially made a non-runner this weekend for the Game Spirit at Newbury due to sustaining a "small wound on one of his hind legs during some routine work at home".

This Injury has since got worse, however, with an infection invading his ligaments and subsequently curtailing his season.

It is a real shame for Nicky Henderson and connections, and he will be a huge miss for the Festival. For me, Cheltenham is all about horses like Sir Gino and he has now missed the festival in back-to-back years.

It’s a great shame for the sport. Hopefully he is back soon and we can see him in 2026 at his best!

With Sir Gino and Inthepocket both being ruled out recently, it has shaken up the Arkle market completely.

Majborough has since moved from 2/1 to now be 8/13 favourite and will be very difficult to beat from what we have seen to date.

The 5/1 Second favourite is L’Eau Du Sud who ran over the weekend, just about getting the job done to beat Rubaud in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick.

It is a great shame we won’t have the brilliant match race we all hoped to see but whilst we still have Majborough, there is still a lot to be excited about from this year’s Arkle going forward.

Hopefully the 2026 Champion Chase we see what was supposed to be the 2025 Arkle.

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