Antepost Analysis: 2025 2,000 Guineas first look

Alamy

Written by: Adam Smith

It's early January and we are bang in the middle of the jumps season. So, what better time to take a first look at the 2025 2,000 Guineas?

As regular viewers of Races Now on YouTube will know, it’s my favourite race of the year. The first Group 1 of the flat season, at a packed Newmarket on the first Saturday of May.

It's always a special occasion and the ante post betting at this early stage is wide open. 6/1 the field, which means the rewards are there if we can locate the prime candidates for glory.

This time last year, City Of Troy was all the range at 15/8. Auguste Rodin was not much bigger a year before that, while in 2022, it was Native Trail who was a warm winter favourite to land the first big prize of the season.

As usual with flat Classics, Aidan O’Brien trains the current favourite and Charlie Appleby has a strong contender in the mix too.

Puzzling Dewhurst left plenty to ponder

We'll start with Shadow Of Light (currently 10/1 best price). You’d have to search hard through the history books to find an even money Dewhurst winner available at 10/1 for the following year’s 2,000 Guineas. But there’s a couple of reasons why he is such a big price.

Firstly, he won the Middle Park Stakes over 6f at the end of September and Charlie Appleby's comments post-race were, “we’ll put him away for the winter” and “I’d say he’s a Commonwealth Cup horse as there’s a lot of speed on his page”. However, three weeks later he was back at Newmarket winning another Group 1 over 7f.

On the Dewhurst itself, current Guineas favourite The Lion In Winter (more on him later) was a late non-runner on account of a vets certificate, which doesn’t tell us a lot in terms of the reason why he didn’t run.

So, that had a massive shake up in the Dewhurst market, leaving just the five runners. Even money Shadow Of Light, 13/8 another Godolphin horse in Ancient Truth, accompanied by two O’Brien runners and Hugo Palmer’s Seagulls Eleven.

And the race itself might have left more questions than answers.

Shadow of Light (second left) won the Dewhurst Stakes from Expanded (far right) in August (Alamy)
Shadow of Light (second left) won the Dewhurst Stakes from Expanded (far right) in August (Alamy) 

The five runners split into two groups, wide across the track. Shadow Of Light was on the far side and went past Seagulls Eleven with ease two and half furlongs out, before tacking across to join the two on the stand side rail. Fomr there, he needed to battle again gamely to win by a neck at the line.

Clearly, the winning distance might not look great on paper but it was far from ideal circumstances for Shadow Of Light — a questionable stayer, on soft ground. So fair play to him for winning.

Will he stay another furlong for the mile, though? On what is sure to be quicker ground in May?

I’d side with him not being a miler, and Charlie Appleby doesn’t strike me as a trainer that uses a Guineas to find out if horses stay with the option of dropping back to the Commonwealth. I think Charlie will decide if he’s a Commonwealth horse before, not after the Guineas.

Of the second and third that day, Expanded (currently 12/1 best price) came into the race as the clear Ballydoyle second string until The Lion In Winter became a non runner.

He made the running up the stand side, where he was bang at work by the two pole. Notably though, he was headed by Ancient Truth but fought back to be a clear second at the line.

Expanded only won a maiden on debut seven days before contesting the Dewhurst. So he’s clearly a late developer to keep an eye on. And, for my money, would be more likely than most to be coming back for the Guineas, regardless of what his stablemate The Lion In Winter does.

Lion leads the early betting

So, we’ve mentioned him a few times. He’s the current antepost favourite for both the Guineas and the Derby. Apparently, this year’s Ballydoyle chosen one. The Lion In Winter (6/1 best price).

The winner of one of the most anticipated two year old races of the season, the Acomb Stakes at York. One from one The Lion In Winter vs one from one Ruling Court. A proper Coolmore vs Godolphin clash.

There was no messing about on that day from Ryan Moore aboard The Lion In Winter.

Up with the pace, he ran straight and the further they went, the better he looked. EVS fav Ruling Court was left back in third but way clear of the remainder. Wimbledon Hawkeye, who split the two in second, went on to win the Group 2 Royal Lodge last term and was also third in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy.

Looking ahead to the 2025 season though, there’s a question mark over both The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court. That race was ran on August 21, 2024 and neither have been seen since.

The Lion In Winter missed the National Stakes with a stone bruise and then the Dewhurst with the aforementioned vets certificate, so we were left unfulfilled in terms of his two year old career — but we’ve been here many times before. Hopefully he’ll be back.

By Sea The Stars, out of a Lope De Vega mare. Will he be yet another Aidan O’Brien Derby type having his first run in the Guineas? Probably. Although it must be said that Aidan O’Brien has somewhat had his fingers burnt with Derby types in the Guineas in the last two years.

Auguste Rodin was the main Derby hope of 2023. He ran in the Guineas, finished 12th of 14, before bouncing back to win the Derby. City Of Troy was the hype horse of 2024, ran in the Guineas and finished a stinking ninth of 11 — but again, bounced back to win the Derby.

Aidan O’Brien blamed himself for the City Of Troy Guineas disaster. Will the master trainer be less inclined to send a Derby horse like The Lion In Winter to Newmarket next season?

Plenty of interest at bigger prices

Ruling Court shouldn’t be forgotten either. His Sandown debut was pretty electric — maybe the best maiden win of the season and he might well have just been beaten by two very good horses at York in the Acomb. Third at Sandown that day was Stanhope Gardens, nearly six lengths back and he’s now rated 111.

Appleby, a master trainer himself, has options for the Guineas at this stage. Shadow Of Light, Ancient Truth, Ruling Court and others. I could still be interested in Ruling Court but would like to know the plan with him before getting involved, given we’ve not seen him since August. Unlike The Lion In Winter, he wasn’t actually an intended runner in any other race.

So that’s the top of the market covered. Is there anything lurking under the radar at bigger prices?

Twain (16/1 best price) deserves a mention. He won a Leopardstown debut on October 19 and eight days later, was winning one of those soft end of season Group 1s at Saint Cloud. Both on bad ground too, so he’s in the 'could be anything' category for O’Brien.

The Racing Post Trophy form looked a bit of a headscratcher to me. The race was ran on bad ground, not for the first time or last. Jessie Harrington’s Hotazhell beat 15/8 Aidan O’Brien favourite Delacrouix. Both look middle distance types to me. They’re both 25/1 for the Guineas as a result.

We interviewed David Egan on Races Now and his horse to follow was Tuscan Hills, who is also put in at the generic 25/1 with Ladbrokes.

That's not to say he’s up to winning a Classic, but unbeaten in two runs over a mile as a juvenile including in a Listed race at Pontefract by nearly five lengths. He’s certainly one to keep an eye on in a trial at Newmarket or Newbury.

At 40/1, Wimbledon Hawkeye might be the most overpriced horse in the market as we stand.

Second behind The Lion In Winter at York, he then won the Group 2 Royal Lodge on his next start, before finishing third in a bad ground Racing Post Trophy on his final start.

He hated the conditions that day but plugged on. With owners that will give it a go at the top table, he is rated 114, is a likely runner and certainly makes my shortlist at this early stage.

Then we are into the realm of once or twice-raced maiden winners, which will need to run in a trial to see how good they actually are.

Smido's current antepost selection for the 2025 2,000 Guineas

I think Expanded is the most likely runner and most likely winner at this stage.

That’s not to say he’s the best juvenile of 2024. But what I am saying is he’s more likely to run than stablemate The Lion In Winter and more likely to get the trip than Shadow Of Light.

At 12/1, Expanded is the right price. He’s not knock you over value at that price. But can I see him going off much shorter than that on the day? Yes. And I’d much rather back Expanded at 12/1 than Scorthy Champ, Ruling Court and Twain, who are all similar prices to Expanded as we speak.

We'll continue to monitor this race and the 1,000 Guineas at regular intervals over on the Races Now YouTube channel. So, if you haven't already, make sure you subscribe!

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