World of Wagers: A punter’s guide to Portugal’s Primeira Liga

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

Offering up some telling nunbers and insight on a division lacking significant media coverage, reading this may just help you unearth a few obscure winners this season!

If you were to ask most avid football fans to name what they thought was the strongest European league outside of the traditional ‘big five’, I reckon a decent majority would plump for Portugal’s Primeira Liga.

Like last week’s feature division, the Eredivisie, it is well renowned for its seemingly unbreachable top three (Benfica, Porto and Sporting) as well as the myriad of talents it has exported to clubs higher up the food chain in recent times — probably most notably Man City and Pep Guardiola’s admiration for Benfica’s brightest talents.

Outside of the big boys however, there are still plenty of interesting stories to pick at, notably for me this year with Vitoria Guimaraes’ impressive Conference League campaign. They sit second behind Chelsea with a single league phase game left to play, with a game against back-to-back finalists Fiorentina sure to be a true test of how far they could go in that competition.

Guimaraes are the tip of the iceberg of the emerging depth coming out of Portugal and I’d like to highlight a couple of other teams to keep a watching brief on over the coming months, before picking out 3 of the best bets for the weekend ahead.

Leans — Two teams to keep on side

A few Scottish fans may be familiar with Farense thanks to Ryan Gauld’s impressive spell there, but there’s not been much to cheer for yet this season. Farense sit rock bottom of the table as things stand on just nine points but I am cautiously optimistic that they may not even finish in the relegation places when the curtain closes. Based on my model, which uses results, underlying performance metrics and market closing lines, 14th or 15th would be a more reasonable assessment of their games so far. With a bit of luck, their results may start to reflect the performances and we can cash in on some bigger prices.

Similarly, the island side of Nacional are perhaps a couple of spots below where they could fairly expect to find themselves based on how they’ve played thus far, and some models even more bullish than mine peg them as a top half side. Whilst I wouldn’t go that far just yet, I see no reason to believe they can’t overcome their recent poor form (two point from a possible nine), turn a couple of draws into wins and push for that top half berth as the season progresses.

Farense have struggled so far but could soon see an up-turn in form. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Fades - Two teams to consider opposing

Unbeaten in their last three, there’s still just enough signs from my model that Estoril may find themselves on the slide in the weeks and months to come. It rates them as really no better than a relegation playoff contender, although with points on the board, that gap remains for now. However, with four of their next five games coming against the top seven, now may be the time to get against Estoril where possible.

It’s also been a fairly happy start for AVS in their debut top flight campaign, currently perched in 14th. Dig a little deeper however, and we actually find the division’s weakest side per my ratings, and not by an inconsiderable distance. It’s always nice to cheer for an underdog story, but it won’t put me off trying to get with their opponents when they face those sides in and around the relegation battle with them.

Best bets for the weekend

BTTS Famalicao vs Farense - 2.1 (SkyBet, Paddy, Betfair)

Whilst I believe Farense are a touch overpriced on the 1X2 markets, there’s not enough juice for me to put them up so I wanted to find a different angle. A return of just seven goals from 14 games doesn’t scream out BTTS, but the underlying numbers take a slightly kinder view on both their chances of scoring, as well as Famalicao’s of conceding. Therefore, I think backing both teams to find the net is the most appealing play here. 

Benfica to win both halves vs Estoril - 1.91 (William Hill)

Benfica are massively short to win this game, but both the total goal line and Asian Handicap were just a bit high for me to want to chance. Instead, I’m backing them to win both halves against an Estoril side facing, as mentioned above, a daunting run of fixtures. Hills are actually quite a standout price on this market, and with my model surprisingly making Benfica even shorter than the market to get the result, it’s a clear bet for me.

Sporting CP win to nil vs Gil Vicente - 2.3 (PaddyPower/Betfair)

We round out this week’s selections with another win to nil after last week’s winner with Ajax. This week, I’m siding with the class of the league in Sporting to travel to Gil Vicente and return with both 3 points and a clean sheet. The departure of superstar head coach Ruben Amorim to Manchester United doesn’t seem to have knocked them off course, and with just a 2 point gap to Porto in 2nd, they won’t want to let up their recent momentum by dropping points to a mid table side

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Portuguese top flight, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…