World of Wagers: Sounding out Seattle and going Greek again

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into some of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

As we approach the business end of the majority of the European league seasons, as well as seeing the beginning of the handful of summer leagues that operate around the world, I’ve decided to make a slight tweak to the format of this column. 

Instead of focusing in on one particular league to find teams both underrated and overrated by the sportsbooks and finding you a trio of bets, I’ll be casting the net far and wide in the search for good value and hopefully plenty of winners. 

Before laying out my selections, I’ll share a small thought each week about my approach to finding value at this stage of the season, and how you can apply it to your own selections.

Kicking things off is perhaps the most important thing in the season’s closing games; motivation. 

As each gameweek passes, there will progressively become more and more sides that have little if not nothing to play for. The mire of midtable is just unavoidable for some, whilst those in tight races at either end of the table have much more at stake with their 90 minutes each week. 

Therefore, it can become advantageous to us as bettors to look for matchups where only one side has a fire in their belly, whilst the other may already be thinking of their summer holiday before a sharp pre-season turnaround. 

Whilst I do believe this is priced into the markets somewhat, in a world where data is king when it comes to bookmakers odds (and I am guilty of this myself), these ‘soft’ factors can often be the deciding factor when weighing up whether or not a bet offers positive value.

Selection #1 - Over 2.5 goals in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam - 2.00 (Betfair)

By and large, I like to oppose the goal lines in the Netherlands, as at times it feels they’re priced on reputation rather than results. 

Despite that, I think there’s an opportunity here to latch on to what is a relatively high price for over 2.5 in the Eredivisie – particularly given the patterns that Sittard games have tended to follow this season. 

Both in general and at home, their matches have averaged a shade under three goals each, as they now prepare to host a Sparta side just a point above the drop zone here. 

The visitors are marginal favourites, but my confidence on the 1X2 wasn’t overly high, and with them needing a result here to pull clear of Willem, I can see them getting drawn into a shootout with a Sittard side that regularly sees plenty of action at both ends of the pitch. 

I’d lean with Sparta to get a result, but goals seem the safer play.

Check out the latest episode of our FA Cup Betting Show ahead of the weekend's action!

Selection #2 - Seattle Sounders DNB vs San Jose Earthquakes - 1.80 (General)

The MLS season is only five games old, so this pick is based as much on longer term trends as results thus far. 

Neither side has had a particularly impressive start, with Seattle on five points and San Jose six, both having a GD of zero to boot. 

A couple of key absences for each side, as well as the relative closeness in quality between the teams points me towards a potentially cagey, tight affair – but based on rolling ratings from my model (which incorporates results as well as underlying performance data and market closing lines), I make Seattle closer to a 2.2 shot than the general 2.4-2.5 available. 

I want the stalemate onside given my cagey expectations, so the draw no bet feels the best route to play here.

Selection #3 - Olympiakos -0.75 AH vs Panathinaikos - 1.98 (Bet365)

Asian Handicaps make up the bulk of my betting, but I know they’re not everyone’s cup of tea, so I’ll slowly dripfeed them into these columns and explain the concept of them before starting to make them the most regular play in my arsenal. 

For a -0.75 handicap, we will win half of our bet if Olympiakos win by a solitary goal (with the other half voided and returned as a push), and cop a full win with a 2 goal or greater margin of victory. 

The top four in Greece enter a play-off round to decide the title and, as things stand, Olympiakos sit on 60 points, seven clear of second and ten ahead of their bitter rivals who are languishing in third.

With teams keeping their points from the regular season before the six-game title shootout, and coming off the back of three straight league wins, Olympiakos I’m sure will be very keen to not only keep up their recent momentum and take a stronger cushion into the playoffs, but also get a big result over their adversaries in one of Europe’s most heated derby clashes.

I make the home side about four or five ticks shorter than the general win price currently, and with such a strong defensive record, I can see plenty of signs that a comfortable margin is in sight when the dust settles here.