World of Wagers: Going Greek

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

Felix's fourth edition sees him turn his attention towards the Greek Super League, having landed seven winners from nine in his previous three!

2024 was a pivotal year for Greek football. 20 years on from the national team’s historic shock victory at Euro 2004, Olympiakos broke new ground by becoming the first side from Greece to lift a major UEFA trophy, beating Fiorentina in the Conference League final.

Having knocked out clubs with serious pedigree such as Fenerbahce and Aston Villa along the way, it was a landmark moment and exactly the kind of story the UECL was brought in to create.

Like many of the nations covered in this series, we do tend to see the same familiar faces in Europe each season from the Greek Super League, but those sides have acquitted themselves adequately thus far, and the league itself is also an intriguing one.

There is plenty of talent, both well known and more obscure, dotted up and down the table, and whilst not the highest scoring league, there’s enough competition (certainly within the top half) to be able to find a few misprices and profit from those.

Leans - two teams to keep on side

Despite failure to reach the group stage of a UEFA tournament this season, this may be a blessing in disguise for AEK Athens.

My ratings currently have them as the strongest side in Greece, as they sit six points of the top with the league’s second best goal difference.

However, with title rivals Olympiakos and Panathinaikos (and even possibly PAOK) likely to be involved in the latter stages of the UECL and UEL, the extra rest for AEK could prove crucial.

The addition of Anthony Martial was an interesting one in the summer and the mercurial Frenchman has shown flashes of his undeniable talent thus far, but that sort of game changing skill may be pivotal in a close fought battle at the top.

The league table works in a somewhat quirky way in Greece, with sides 5th-8th involved in a play-off group for a UECL wildcard slot.

One side not currently in those places but who I could see making a strong play for them is Atromitos Athinon. They currently sit just a point outside those spots and with just eight points separating fifth and 11th, it’s sure to be a close run thing.

Home form is killing Atromitos at the minute, but they’re on an upward trajectory according to my model, around the sixth best side, and could be one to side with in the coming weeks.

No European commitments could work in AEK's favour. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

Fades - two sides worth opposing

If Atromitos are to ascend, then someone above them must slip up, and of the group above them right now, it’s Panaitolikos that look the shakiest.

Their underlying performances don’t back up their position, their GD of 0 is healthy but not spectacular and crucially there just don’t seem to many goals in this side at all.

It’s 16 goals at either end for them after 19 games in what is a tight league but still, if those defensive numbers don’t hold up (which seems likely), they may lack the firepower to keep their season going

Another quirk of the table is that the bottom six (of 14) enter a relegation group. A side I see going into this in potentially spiralling form is Panseraikos.

Although currently sat in tenth, I make them the second worst team on the numbers at present. Add to this that they look dogged with both injuries and suspensions for the coming weeks, and now may be the time to play against them before that dreaded relegation play-off round.

Best bets in the Greek Super League this weekend - January 24th-26th

AEK Athens -2 AH vs Panaitolikos - 2.02 (Unibet/MGM)

I’m sure this pick needs little explanation given what I’ve written about both sides above. To cash, we need AEK to win by three or more goals, with our stake refunded if it’s a two-goal victory.

The win to nil price was too short for me, not a surprise given Panaitolikos’ woes in attack, so I wanted to take the bigger odds and bank on AEK’s usually excellent goalscorers to pile on the pressure here.

Under 2 Asian Goals Lamia vs Aris - 1.975 (Bet365)

Another play on the Asian lines, this time on the total goals. I make this game a fair bit closer on the 1X2 than the majority of bookmakers, despite Lamia being comfortably the league’s worst club, and neither side (like many in the league) is blessed with attacking prowess.

We once more have the safety net of a push if the match features exactly two goals, but I think there’s a strong chance of a boring 1-0 Aris victory here, and even potentially a 0-0.

PAOK win to nil vs Levadiakos - 2.00 (PaddyPower/Hills/Betfair)

It wouldn’t be a WoW column without a win to nil pick would it?

I do think in general these markets can be a touch overpriced in one-sided affairs, purely because of how the main win and draw markets are derived from the Asian handicap and goal lines.

Both PAOK’s goal conceded rate, and Levadiakos’ scoring rate is just a touch over one per game, so to be getting even money about a PAOK win without conceding (and in fact I even think their win price could be a bit shorter) feels like some nice value.

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the Greek top flight, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond!

Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value…

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