World of Wagers: Your guide to French Ligue 2

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

This week, Felix hones in on French second division Ligue 2.

If you are a football lover (and if you’re reading this article then I’d say the chances of that are high), and ever find yourself with nothing to do on a Friday evening, then Ligue 2 may well be your new best friend. 

The vast majority of each weekend slate kicks off at 7pm each Friday, with the odd game sprinkled in over the rest of the weekend. It acts as a great warm up to the main event of the French top flight, and like the leagues discussed over the previous two weeks, is host to an interesting mix of sides.

There aren’t exactly any sleeping giants to be found, but there’s a healthy blend of sides with plenty of recent Ligue 1 experience, plus upwardly mobile sides who are having some of their first seasons in tier two. 

Whilst bookmakers like to lure you in with the handful of high-profile televised games each Friday evening, Ligue 2 could become a quiet, consistent part of your arsenal which is too often overlooked.

Leans - two teams to keep on side

In spite of being sat just a place and two points above the bottom three as things stand, it seems there’s reason to believe Rodez could finish the season strong. 

My ratings (which use underlying performance metrics and market closing lines to more predictively assess teams) have them as the seventh best side in the division, a far cry from their table predicament. 

On the surface, it seems easy to see why as their -2 GD is by far the healthiest of the bottom third of the table. They’ve also been involved in a lot of tight games, so if a bit of variance starts to go their way instead of their opponents, there’s a great chance that they pull clear over the final weeks of the season.

At the top of the table, there’s a close four-way battle in the quest for promotion. Of this quartet, I reckon we will get the most value for money by siding with Metz for the remaining fixtures. 

Sat fourth, but with the second-highest rating on my model, as well as the stingiest defence and best goal difference across the whole league, they’re looking to make an immediate return to the top flight. 

The main issue at present is the amount of draws compared to the sides around them, but with a plethora of attacking options like Ablie Jallow and Cheikh Sabaly, I can see them crashing the top two before the season’s out.

Check out Felix's thoughts on the latest episode of the 'Bettor Days Ahead' podcast.

Fades - two teams to oppose

As seems to be the theme with this column, there seems to be one upper mid-table side in every division we cover that is due a bit of regression to the mean and a slide down the table. 

This week, the honour falls to Annecy, the only side in the top half without a positive goal difference (31-31). 

In addition to missing two key defenders for a few upcoming games, they are the opposite of Rodez in that the tight margin games seem to consistently be swinging their way. 

Should that change even a little bit, their promotion hopes could very quickly be dashed

It’s a rather similar case for Laval, who sit a place below Annecy in both the actual table (6th/7th) and my own power ratings (14th/15th). 

The form is very mixed, the overall results not bad but under the surface, it all just feels rather middling for Les Tango. 

Another side with a couple of key injuries, namely in the midfield engine room with Sanna and Roye both sidelinded, the end of the season could well end up being rather flat, and for a side with no motivation in that scenario, it may be worth backing against them.

Best Bets for French Ligue 2 - March 7 - 10, 2025

Grenoble to beat Ajaccio - 2.20 (Betfair/William Hill)

Money has trickled in slowly for Grenoble, and I agree that the price feels a little big. 

My ratings would make them a shade of odds on, particularly with home advantage, and I think this is the most straightforward way to get them onside against a side in Ajaccio who often offer next to nothing on the road. 

If you don’t want to commit to the straight win, then unders or BTTS-no would also be good value plays here for me.

BTTS - Yes in Caen vs Laval - 1.91 (General)

Despite wanting to get against Laval, I’m surprised Caen are as short as they are here, given they’re rooted to the bottom of the real (and my ratings) table. 

Laval’s away record is actually better than at home, so my read on this game is one where both sides are competitive but still giving the slight edge to the home side. 

Something like a 2-1 Caen or a 2-2 draw is my feeling here, so I’ll cover my bases and back both sides to contribute to the scoresheet.

Red Star to beat Amiens and Under 2.5 goals - 4.33 (Bet365)

Yes, only two results are on our side here (1-0, 2-0), but I still think this is a great value play on a big price. 

Red Star are about the right price to win the game I think (maybe I’d make them a touch shorter), and neither their home record nor Amiens’ on the road screams goals, and that’s based on both actual goals and underlying metrics too. 

I couldn’t put you off just backing the straight Red Star win here at nice odds, but I wanted to push the boat out here when the chance for positive expected value feels so big.

I hope you’ve enjoyed your whistle stop tour of the French second division, and best of luck with any selections you place this weekend and beyond! Join me next time as we hop on a plane to elsewhere in the world in the pursuit of some value...