World of Wagers: Attention on Austria

Each week, our new football data contributor Felix Morson-Pate (@FelixPateLGOP) takes a deep dive into one of football's lesser-covered leagues in his World of Wagers column.

This week's edition sees Felix hone in on the Austrian Bundesliga. 

When I say Bundesliga, it likely conjures up images of raucous German stadiums, exciting tactical coaches and, inevitably, Bayern Munich endlessly hoovering up the silverware. However, there is another league, with the same title, that is worthy of your attention. 

Just like its German counterpart, the Austrian Bundesliga saw a winning juggernaut in RB Salzburg halted last term in their quest for yet another title, as Sturm Graz pulled off the seemingly impossible to conquer Red Bull’s junior European club. After a decade of consecutive championships, Salzburg are somewhat familiar to most, and having sold on the likes of Erling Haaland and Sadio Mane in that period, their eye for talent cannot be underestimated. 

But within the ecosystem of Austrian football, there are plenty of teams brimming with young, high potential talent — and in a league with so many raw unproven players, opportunities to find value lie around every corner.

Leans - Two teams to back

Although they currently sit in third place, eight points off the summit, my ratings (which take into account both underlying performance metrics and market closing lines) actually have Rapid Vienna as the strongest side in the Bundesliga at present. 

Rapid had a very successful Conference League campaign, finishing the league phase in fourth position, and added to that, they’ve lost the joint fewest games in the league this season alongside Sturm Graz. 

Draws have been their Achilles heel (seven is the most of any side) and just two points from their last three games hasn’t been fantastic. Yet digging a little deeper into these numbers reveals a side that is virtually faultless at home, and very difficult to beat on the road. 

With their recent wobble, perhaps the prices will be a little more generous in the coming weeks.

Rapid have performed admirably on the continent so far this season. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

At the opposite end of the table, whilst Altach lie two points adrift at the bottom, the models I use suggest an uptick in form could be on its way. 

I see them as the third or fourth worst side at the moment rather than dead last, while they do have some kinder looking fixtures on the horizon too.

They do seem destined to finish in the bottom six, and therefore compete in the dreaded relegation playoff group, but there’s enough to suggest that if Gustavo Santos can keep firing, with some more added support from the likes of Lukas Fridrikas and Oliver Strunz (both of whom have struggled for goals), they can find some momentum to take into that final stretch and avoid the drop.

Fades - Two teams to oppose

Blau-Weiss Linz currently hold a three-point cushion to the chasing pack outside the top six, and the recent form looks good, though I’m less certain that they stay there come season’s end.

Sitting 9th on my power rankings, BW Linz are somewhat of a feast or famine side, with two draws to go alongside seven wins and losses apiece. Their games are usually only decided by a one-goal margin, so if some of that variance starts to go against them, and the wins become draws (seemingly more likely than losses becoming draws based on some of the underlying metrics), then they could struggle to hold onto that sixth spot.

Across the city from rivals Rapid, Austria Vienna could be the victims to the potential of resurgent form from the neighbours. 

It’s nine points from nine in their last three, and they remain the only side unbeaten at home, yet in spite of this they’ve been slipping on my ratings for a few weeks now. 

Five points is a healthy gap, and they do still sit just three points behind league leaders Sturm Graz, who they play this weekend. 

I just don’t have faith that their performances are as sustainable as those around them at this moment in time.

Best Austrian Bundesliga Bets February 8th-9th, 2025

Rapid Vienna -0.75 AH vs Wolfsberger - 1.97 (Unibet/MGM)

Given how I’ve waxed lyrical about Rapid’s home form, this pick should come as no surprise. So long as they get the job done and beat Wolfsberger here, we will cash at least some of our bet. Win by two goals or more and we’ll get a full return, however in the event of a single goal victory, half our stake will be refunded and the other half will cash as a winner.

Wolfsberger are a middling side away from home, so just shy of even money here feels a decent chunk of value.

Expect Rapid to win well against Wolfsberger this weekend. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)

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