Wales vs Finland: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Aled Edwards

Rob Page’s Wales side host Finland in the UEFA Euro 2024 play-off semi-finals on Thursday evening. 

The winner will face either Poland or Estonia in the Path A final, with the eventual prize being a place in Group D for the European Championships in Germany this summer. 

In six meetings between the two nations, Finland have never achieved victory, with Wales winning four times. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time at the Cardiff City Stadium.

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Wales

The home side head into the fixture unbeaten in their last six matches, with four of those coming at home. Wales haven’t lost since a 2-0 away defeat to Turkey in Group D of the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying last year, though they eventually finished in third position.

In their ten matches since exiting the FIFA World Cup in 2022, Wales have averaged an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.59 goals per match, which they have struggled to convert, netting only 1.4 goals per match. In contrast however, Page’s side have slightly outperformed their defensive data, conceding only one goal per match despite their expected goals against (xGA) tally standing at 1.13. 

The Dragons form at home has been much better than on the road, winning 50% of their last ten games on home turf as opposed to only 25% of their away matches. They have lost only once at home in their last six games. 

Page’s Wales side have kept a clean sheet in three of their last six home matches, whilst only failing to find the opposition's net in one match. 

Wales players have found great form recently for their clubs, with Daniel James, Ethan Ampadu, Connor Roberts and Joe Rodon all combining to contribute towards Leeds United’s push for Premier League promotion. Striker Kieffer Moore has scored six goals in ten games since signing for Ipswich Town on loan in January. 

Finland

Finland’s form picked up towards the end of their UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying last year, picking up wins in their last two games. Manager Markku Kanerva is the only man to lead Finland to a UEFA European tournament after taking them to the Championships in 2020. They could only manage a third-place finish in Group H, however.

In their last ten matches, Finland have averaged an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.3 goals per match which they have impressively exceeded, netting 1.8 goals per match. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally sits at an average of 1.17, which they have once again bettered, conceding an average of only one goal per game in their last ten. 

Kanerva’s side are in good form away from home having won 60% of their last five matches on the road, keeping clean sheets in 40% of those. 

Finland have however only managed to score an average of one goal per game away from home, taking an average of only 6.4 shots at goal with a conversion rate of only 16%. They've therefore been relying on their defensive record for results on the road. 

Prediction

Wales are in strong form and enter the match as favourites outright in front of their home fans. Their impressive form on home soil makes it difficult to look past them as they look to move a step closer to EURO 2024 qualification.

OddsNow's Picks: Wales to win (9/10 @ 10Bet); Over 2.5 goals scored (13/8 @ Betfair)

 

 

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