UEFA Under-21 European Championship: Outright preview and best bets

There may be no senior international tournament for football fans to feast on this summer – but the Under-21 European Championship provides an exciting and intriguing alternative.

The 2025 edition, which will offer a telling glance into the future of Europe's leading nations, kicks off on Wednesday and our data guru Felix Morson-Pate (@felixpatelgop) has wasted no time getting stuck into things with this comprehensive tournament preview.

There seems little fanfare around Lee Carsley’s Young Lions as they travel to Slovakia in a bid to retain the crown they won two years ago with a tight victory over an excellent Spanish team.

Due to a combination of injuries, senior call ups and a new all singing, all dancing Club World Cup, it may not be the Young Lions' first choice 23 that enter this U21s Euros, but they’re still very much amongst the favourites in what looks set to be a very competitive edition.

Here are my thoughts on each group, before looking to the outright markets in a bid to spot some value (all quoted prices are available with Bet365)

UEFA Under-21 European Championship – Group Stage analysis

Group A

Hosts Slovakia have been dealt a rough hand here alongside Spain, Italy and Romania.

Interestingly, the group favourites here in Spain have the fewest players with senior international experience, but that’s not to say this is a side wet behind the ears. The likes of Christhian Mosquera, Raul Moro and Mikel Jauregizar (amongst many others) have a wealth of La Liga minutes behind them and based on my ratings, which use a combination of performance data and market closing lines, they’re a worthy strong favourite.

The Italians also boast plenty of potential stars, headlined by Leeds’ Wilfried Gnonto, whilst Cher Ndour and Michael Kayode are two favourites of mine.

I’d struggle to get against the top two here, but keep an eye on both Tomas Suslov (Slovakia) and Octavian Popescu (Romania) as the key men if a shock is to occur.

Group B

Group B feels like another case where we have two distinct pairs; one battling to win the group and the other fighting to avoid bottom spot.

My ratings do make this the strongest group on average here, but these are Czechia and Slovenia squads lacking the senior experience and pedigree that England and Germany have.

All eyes will surely be on that final group stage clash, with both sides looking to have picked up two wins at that point to set up a winner takes all encounter. The Germans have two forwards I quite like for the Golden Boot in Stuttgart’s Nick Woltemade (7/1) and Mainz’s Nelson Weiper (25/1), while the squad as a whole is filled with quality despite having few senior caps to date.

Meanwhile, the reigning champions have a plethora of options across the pitch even without key men such as Liam Delap and Taylor Harwood-Bellis. Given Carsley’s propensity for experimental setups at times, it’s tricky to say who will play, or even what position they’ll find themselves in, so I’d avoid any Englishman in the top scorer market.

That being said, I do make them slight favourites to top the group, so the 11/10 about that makes the most appeal here.

Group C

Most eyes will naturally be drawn towards France here, as many a football fan and pundit purrs about the depth they have at both senior and youth level.

It is indeed a squad packed full of recognisable names, including the Golden Boot favourite Thierno Barry (6/1), Mathys Tel, Castello Lukeba and Wilson Odobert. My slight concern with France is that they are a side who have come into the last two U21 tournaments with such high expectations, and flattered to deceive, going out in the quarter finals on both occasions to the Netherlands and Ukraine respectively.

I don’t see Poland (though keep an eye on former Brighton man Kacper Kozlowski) or Georgia (the tournament’s weakest side in my view) causing them any issues but at the prices, 7/4 about Portugal to win the group is just too big for me, given the relatively small gap in quality my ratings perceive there to be.

Runners up in 2021, it is a side that can blow hot and cold (as a recent entertaining 2-4 defeat to England will testify) but if it all clicks, I like them to go far here.

Midfielders Mateus Fernandes (Southampton) and Paulo Bernardo (Celtic) have both had coming of age seasons, whilst Wolfsburg’s Tiago Tomas is another I like for a small play on the Golden Boot at 33/1.

Group D

We finish with perhaps the most open group of the quartet, though still headlined by a firm enough favourite in the Dutch.

Led by Michael Reiziger, it is another example of a squad that has plenty of senior experience already under their belts. Devyne Rensch is one of my favourite young defenders, and partnering Jorrel Hato they will be a formidable backline to breach.

Further forward, Ian Maatsen down the left will be a handful for any right back, whilst either of the AZ duo of Ernest Poku and Ruben van Bommel could make this their chance to announce themselves to a wider audience. I make them worthy 4/6 favourites for the group but behind them, it’s anyone’s guess.

Finland are no doubt the weakest of the three, despite possessing perhaps the group’s most talented keeper in Lucas Bergstrom, and Ukraine surprised everyone last tournament by claiming thirrd place. Both Brentford’s Yehor Yarmolyuk and Dynamo Kyiv’s Vladyslav Vanat possess the experience and the ability to take them through here but I may just side with Denmark to snatch second spot, and it’s mainly down to their forwards.

A potential front three of William Boving, Conrad Harder and William Osula is amongst the fiercest that any side can put out in this tournament, so if any games turn into a shootout, expect the Danes to be more than a match for even the strongest sides here.

Outright market looks tightly compressed

The outright prices are quite compressed here, which is unsurprising given the expected competitiveness of the tournament, and the quality within each group.

As much as I like the Dutch, at 7/1 I can’t back them when it’s highly likely they’ll have to face France or Portugal in their first knockout match.

From the same group, Denmark at 25/1 could be worth a small investment given how much I rate their chances if any game does turn into a proper end-to-end shootout.

Ultimately though, it’s a no bet on the tournament winner for me at this stage – so I will sit back and enjoy the knockouts whilst cheering on my Golden Boot fancies!

Felix’s best pre-tournament bets for the U21 European Championship

1pt - England to win Group B - 11/10

1pt - Portugal to win Group C - 7/4 

1pt - To qualify 4-fold – England, Portugal, Spain and Denmark - 9/5

0.5 pts e/w - Nick Woltemade (Germany) to win the Golden Boot - 7/1

0.25 pts e/w - Nelson Weiper (Germany) to win the Golden Boot - 25/1

0.25 pts e/w - Tiago Tomas (Portugal) to win the Golden Boot - 33/1

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