Ahead of the 2025/26 football season kicking off, Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) kicks off his ante post look at the markets with a rundown of the Premier League title race. 

As we enter July, the sound can be faintly heard of football bettors trawling through Oddschecker and the likes, scouring the vast array of new season markets in their maiden search of value.

Whether you’re a serious punter looking for singles to get stuck into, or merely a casual bettor who likes to perm a few picks for a seasonal interest, the time to strike is very much now – before the flood of pre-season previews start to shape what are, currently, virtually untouched first shows.

I’m hoping over this series of columns that we can land on a few picks that go off a bit shorter between now and the big kick-off. 

Let’s start at the top, then…

Premier League 2025/26 winner betting odds as of July 1 2025

Betfair Exchange (win only)

Liverpool - 2/1

Arsenal - 5/2

Manchester City - 11/4

Chelsea - 18/1

Newcastle - 33/1

Manchester United - 33/1

Tottenham - 70/1

Aston Villa - 100/1

300/1 BAR

Bookmakers (each way 1/3 top 2)

Liverpool - 2/1

Arsenal - 5/2

Manchester City - 5/2

Chelsea - 18/1

Newcastle - 22/1

Manchester United - 33/1

Tottenham - 70/1

Aston Villa - 70/1

250/1 BAR

Liverpool should give a solid defence

It feels only right that Liverpool are instilled as favourites for this season’s Premier League given the convincing way they sealed last year’s title.

The Reds were sent off 7/1 last term with Arne Slot taking on the seemingly impossible challenge of replacing club legend Jurgen Klopp in the dugout – a task he went on to complete in serene fashion.

It was a new approach for the men from Anfield, abandoning the swashbuckling football which became a hallmark under Klopp in favour of more a more controlled, dominant and patient approach.

Bizarrely, however, their goal difference tally of 86 scored and 41 conceded ended up being identical to what they achieved in 2023/24 under Klopp – only enough to secure a third-place finish on that occasion.

You do have to wonder, then, if Slot’s side (as brilliant as they were) have been beneficiaries from their rivals’ levels dropping. 

Manchester City, in a relative crisis by their own ludicrously high standards under Pep Guardiola, fell 20 points short of their title-winning total in 2023-24, while Arsenal were also 15 points shy of their previous tally last term.

But you can only beat what is put in front of you, and Liverpool did that with a minimum of fuss. It’s hard to forecast they won’t have a sterner challenge in 2025-26 from at least one of those rivals, though.

There’s no obvious reason to think the Reds will regress this term. While Trent Alexander-Arnold has left for Real Madrid, the capture of Milos Kerkez from Bournemouth looks shrewd business and Florian Wirtz’s record-breaking arrival from Bayer Leverkusen will have Mo Salah and Co licking their lips.

Expect Liverpool to be posting another total north of 80pts – but will it be enough to see them defend England’s top prize for the first time in 40 years?

Underestimate Guardiola’s rejuvenating powers at your peril

It is slightly surprising to see Manchester City priced bigger than Arsenal when it comes to Liverpool’s chief threat in 25-26.

Many were quick to call the  ‘end of an era’ last season for City. 

The great Kevin De Bruyne looked a shadow of his former self, winding down a marvellous trophy-laden spell at the Etihad. The 2023-24 Player of the Season Phil Foden was virtually anonymous by comparison, managing just seven goals and two assists.. Heck, even world football’s most lethal marksman, Erling Haaland, barely limped over the 20-goal mark, having gone at a goal a game for the previous two campaigns.

But let’s be honest. The real key to City’s underperformance last season was their inability to cope without their chief conductor, Rodri.

The influential Spaniard suffered an ACL injury against Arsenal last August which would go on to keep him out for the entire season (bar a brief cameo in City’s penultimate Premier League game against Bournemouth). 

Many formational and personnel tweaks were made without success – and it left City way off the pace come May.

Yet as punters, it seems wise to trust the great Guardiola to have also picked up on this obvious pitfall.

The City boss has been forthright on the need to improve standards right across the board and evidence suggests that is already happening. 

Signings like Tijjani Reijnders, voted the best midfielder in Italy’s Serie A last term, and Rayan Cherki, the explosive Lyon forward, should help provide a welcome freshen up to their attacking phase – as will flying Wolves full-back Rayan Ait-Nouri.

And while Rodri limped out of City’s final Club World Cup game (a 4-3 loss to Al-Hilal), his return to the fold during the group stage of that tournament served up a reminder of how devastating this City side are in full flow.

It’s also encouraging to see the appointment of Bernardo Silva as the new club captain. 

Someone who has been with City for such a long period of success knows exactly what ‘higher standards’ looks like and as a popular figure in the dressing room already, you’d imagine he’ll have a big role to play regardless of how many minutes he ends up getting.

From a betting perspective, there’s ample reason to expect City will return to something near their best next season. And if that’s the case, 11/4 about them lifting a seventh title in nine years could quickly look a steal of a price.

Hard to trust serial bridesmaids Arteta and Arsenal

While City make plenty of appeal at the prices, the 5/2 about Arsenal going all the way this term is significantly less tempting.

With the champions way off the boil last year, the door was open for someone to take advantage – and all the signs of the previous two campaigns suggested that should have been the Gunners.

And yet, despite only losing four games all season, a whopping 14 draws proved their undoing. Most of those came against top-half sides, including Liverpool (twice), Brighton (twice), Chelsea, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Brentford.

This only reinforces the widespread opinion that the Gunners need to add more cutting edge to their ranks if they are to avoid dropping silly points. Such business will need to be done in the coming month, with the only addition thus far being Kepa Arrizabalaga to their goalkeeping ranks. 

Some Gunners fans could point to the mid-season absence of star man Bukayo Saka being costly, but that would be a stretch. Arsenal won 64% of their possible points with him out of the side and 65% of their possible points when he played – nowhere near the drop-off of, say, when Rodri is absent for City.

A fantastic run to the Champions League semi-finals also undoubtedly put strain on Arteta’s squad in the final weeks and there’s nothing to say a similar run won’t occur this year. 

So, even providing a couple of strong additions are made between now and August, what will have changed to make this group winners? 

Finishing second three years running is no small feat but with Liverpool expected to at least continue at their previous level and City looking well primed to bounce back stronger, it’s hard to get enthused about Arsenal as 5/2 chances for glory.

Improving Chelsea may merit small investment

The betting very much has this year’s renewal as a three-horse race but there is plenty of quality sitting just in behind the market principles who could at least get themselves into the conversation come Christmas time.

Of course, the biggest challenge facing the likes of Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa is having the sufficient squad depth to juggle European commitments alongside the domestic schedule – and it is for that reason that Chelsea make most appeal of the outsiders.

The Blues have been a shadow of their usual competitive selves for three seasons now but perhaps last year’s progress has gone a little under the radar – sealing a fourth-place finish on the final day and winning the UEFA Conference League.

Enzo Maresca’s appointment was met with a largely underwhelming reception by most but that maiden campaign is a very solid showing indeed when considering the Londoners were coming off the back of 12th and sixth-placed finishes (and no trophies in those two years).

It’s a youthful squad which are improving all the time but there’s plenty of star quality in the ranks – none more so than Cole Palmer, who managed 28 direct goal contributions in all competitions last season.

The Blues are also making decisive moves to further bolster their attacking ranks. Securing a return to the Champions League has already helped them land the exciting trio of Liam Delap, Brazilian sensation Estevao and, most recently, Brighton’s dynamic forward Joao Pedro.

Looking at Chelsea’s first six fixtures, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be lurking around top spot before a September showdown with Liverpool. Should they lay down a marker there, another five winnable fixtures follow. 

Taking a snip of the 18/1 now with an each-way angle in mind could prove worthwhile.

Matt Hill’s Premier League 2025-26 winner ante post betting tips

4pts - Manchester City to win the league - 11/4 (Betfair Exchange)*

0.5pts EW - Chelsea to win the league - 18/1 (General - 1/3 2 places)

*Current exchange price of 3.85 tracked as 11/4 after deductions