Poland vs Estonia: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Adam Todd

Poland host Estonia in a EURO 2024 play-off semi-final at the National Stadium Warsaw on Thursday evening. 

The winner will face either Wales or Finland in the final to determine which side secures a place in Germany this summer. Kick-off is set for 7:45pm UK time. 

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Poland 

The hosts come into this fixture being unbeaten in four games. Poland finished third in their Group E during qualifying, below leaders Albania and second-placed Czech Republic, and are now only two games away from marking their fifth consecutive appearance at a European Championships.

They both scored and conceded ten goals during qualifying, but have scored in each of their last seven home matches which also included five clean sheets. Poland scored an average of 1.3 goals per game at home, and scored at least one in nine of their ten games overall. Their average of one goal conceded per game is much better than that of Thursday's opponents, who averaged 2.5 per game during qualifying.

Manager Michal Probierz is set to take charge of the match for the fourth time since his appointment. 

Estonia

Estonia head into the match having never qualified for a major tournament in their history. Finishing bottom of Group F during qualifying did little to offer hope for the away side, who only picked up one point while conceding 22 goals. 

However, finishing top of their group in the UEFA Nations League in 2022 has granted them a second shot at qualification, though their failure to win a match since 2022 is hardly ample preparation. The following 13 games have seen just six goals scored and 27 goals conceded. 

Their away form is even more concerning; they've scored an average of 0.8 goals across their last 20 matches, with an average of 1.6 conceded. They've failed to score in each of their last ten away outings. 

Prediction

Only Gibraltar (0) and Lichtenstein (1) scored less than Estonia during qualifying and so there's little hope of them moving closer to a place in their first major tournament. Poland's strong form, buoyed by talisman Robert Lewandowski up top, makes the home side predictable favourites heading into Thursday. There's little value on offer on the moneyline, though, with Poland coming in at 2/11 outright. 

Nevertheless, Estonia have made habit of conceding, suggesting plenty of opportunities lie in wait for the home side as they look for a fifth consecutive spot at the Euros. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 2.5 Home Goals (11/10 @ PaddyPower)

CHECK OUT OUR WALES VS FINLAND PREVIEW HERE!

 

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