Newcastle United vs Brighton: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Brighton make the long trip up north to Newcastle United on the final weekend of the Premier League season.
The Albion’s season has petered out and they have little left to play for, but Newcastle’s late-season resurgence has put them well in the mix for European qualification. Kick off at St. James’ Park will be Saturday 3pm.
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Newcastle United
After suffering from injuries and inconsistency for much of this season, Eddie Howe’s side have put a good run together lately to propel them up to sixth place. With three games to play, they are four points behind Tottenham in fifth and two ahead of Chelsea in seventh. A win for the Magpies this weekend would go a long way to securing some form of European football for next year.
Newcastle have been strong at St. James’ Park in recent years and that has been the same this season, winning twelve of their eighteen games (P18 W12 D3 L3) at an average of 2.17 points per game, which is the fourth-best record in the league. They have been superb going forward, with their 48 goals at home - 2.67 per game – the joint most in the league alongside Man City. Comparisons have been drawn with ‘The Entertainers’ Newcastle side of the 1990s, and understandably so as games at St. James Park have averaged 3.83 goals per game. After winning 5-1 against Sheffield United in their previous home game, the Magpies have now gone seven games unbeaten on home turf.
In their 4-1 away win at Burnley, Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak started for the first time together this season, and showed Howe what he has been missing out on all season. In a 4-4-2 shape Newcastle tore through Burnley time and time again, and both men got on the scoresheet. Isak missed a penalty but still managed to score, making it ten goals in nine games for him and taking him to twenty league goals, the first player to manage that for Newcastle since Alan Shearer.
Brighton
It feels like a long time since Brighton dispatched Newcastle 3-1 in September thanks to an Evan Ferguson hat-trick, a result which left them fourth in the table at the time. After being plagued with injuries all season and having to contend with their first ever European campaign, Brighton are now eleventh with 47 points. They did pick up a deserved and much-needed 1-0 win over Aston Villa last time out, ending a run of six games without a win. The best the Seagulls can realistically hope for now is a top-half finish.
Brighton have not been great on the road this year, winning 22% of their games (P18 W4 D5 L9) with an average of 0.94 points per game, which is the 14th-best away record. However, a glance at the underlying numbers reveals they have perhaps been slightly unfortunate; they have a positive expected goal (xG) differential, with 1.56 xGF (for) to 1.44 xGA (against) per match, but in reality they have scored only 1.33 goals per game and conceded 1.89 goals per game on their travels. After a chastening 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth, Brighton have now not won any of their last five away games.
Joao Pedro scored the winner with a penalty against Villa, which took him to twenty goals in all competitions this season. The Brazilian forward has impressed in his first season since joining from Watford, with his ability to slot into multiple positions making him extremely valuable for the tactically versatile Roberto de Zerbi.
Prediction
With both teams still absent of their strongest eleven, particularly at the back, there will likely be more goals between two of the Premier League’s most entertaining sides. Recent history has favoured the home team in this fixture, with Brighton the last away team to win back in 2020. Newcastle have good memories of this game from last year, with a 4-1 win all but securing Champions League qualification.
OddsNow are backing the Magpies to continue their good home form and secure an important win here.