Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Betting Odds & Prediction
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The title run-in continues as Aston Villa travel to the Etihad Stadium to take on Manchester City in a huge match for both teams.
The teams are separated by just one place in the table, with City in third and Villa fourth. Kick off will be on Wednesday at 8.15pm.
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Manchester City
After failing to break down a stubborn Arsenal defence in Sunday’s 0-0 draw, Manchester City now find themselves with a fight on their hands to retain their title, sitting three points behind leaders Liverpool in third with nine games left to play. It was far from a disastrous result, but it has shifted some momentum towards their rivals. It was the first time City have failed to score at home in 58 games, but they are still unbeaten at the Etihad since December 2022.
City have not lost in fourteen league games since a 1-0 loss at Villa Park in December, where they were outplayed in a manner rarely seen in recent years, so they will be looking for revenge here. Their injury problems in defence continued when Nathan Ake was withdrawn last time out, joining Kyle Walker on the sidelines, but they mostly contained Arsenal, and could have John Stones and Ederson back for this one. They have kept three clean sheets in their last five home games, and 53% of their games at home this season have gone under 2.5 goals.
After not scoring in his last two and coming in for some criticism after the Arsenal game, Erling Haaland will be out to prove his doubters wrong. Despite missing five games with injury he is still the league’s top goalscorer with 18 goals, and has four goals in his past five home appearances. The Citizens average 2.27 goals per home game this season.
Aston Villa
The Villains have been one of the best teams in the league since Unai Emery took over as manager 18 months ago and look set to be rewarded with a first appearance in Europe’s top tier since 1983, particularly if fifth place is enough to qualify for the Champions League this year. Their 2-0 win at home to Wolves leaves them fourth in the table with 59 points from 30 games, three points clear of Tottenham who have a game in hand, but eleven clear of Manchester United in sixth who also have a game in hand.
They have been impressive on the road recently, going unbeaten in their past five games and scoring 11 goals in the process, an average of 2.2 goals per game. However, this is no normal away day, and Villa’s task will be made even tougher by the possibility of star striker Ollie Watkins missing the game with a hamstring injury. The 28-year-old has started every game this season and has 16 goals and 10 assists, the most goal involvements of any player in the league. He came off at half time in the win over Wolves and is a major doubt for this game. Colombian striker Jhon Duran would be most likely to replace him, but he has just two league goals in his Villa career.
Villa’s away games average 3.2 goals per game this season, with 1.67 goals for and 1.53 against, and they have collected 1.67 points per away game, giving them the 4th best record in the division. They will have to shore up defensively, however, as they have only three clean sheets on the road, and quickly, with another massive trip to Arsenal following this one.
Prediction
This has the feel of a huge end of season game, and this fixture has history deciding titles, memorably in 2022 when City came from two down to win 3-2 and snatch the title from Liverpool on the final day.
Villa have beaten Pep Guardiola’s side already this year and will represent another tough test here, and it could be a cagey game as City look to rediscover their rhythm after a slightly disjointed display against Arsenal.
However, the visitors are already missing key players including skipper John McGinn, and the potential loss of Watkins would be a huge blow to their chances here. There is little value in backing Man City to win on the moneyline, but we back City to pick up a clean sheet on the way to a big three points in pursuit of their fourth consecutive league title.