Italy vs Venezeula: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Jamie Terry

Venezuela face reigning European Champions Italy on Thursday night in the first ever encounter between the two nations.

The friendly will be hosted at Chase Stadium, the home of Inter Miami, and will kick off at 9pm UK time.

Recent Form

Italy 

A lot has changed since Italy won Euro 2020. They failed to qualify for the 2022 Qatar World Cup following a shock 1-0 play-off loss to North Macedonia, and Roberto Mancini, the manager who led them to the Euros and an international record 37-match unbeaten streak between October 2018 and October 2021, resigned from his role in August 2023 amid pressure from the Italian media.

The Azzurri, now managed by Luciano Spalletti, finished runners-up in Group C of Euro 2024 qualifying. They had to rely on having a better head-to-head and goal difference record than third-placed Ukraine to secure automatic qualification to Euro 2024, finishing six points behind first-placed England. 

Spalletti has named three debutants in his squad for March’s internationals (Rauol Bellanova, Michael Folorunsho, and Lorenzo Lucca), while veteran defender Francesco Acerbi has left the camp after being accused of racially abusing Napoli defender Juan Jesus in Sunday’s 1-1 draw between Inter Milan and Napoli.

Since Spalletti’s appointment, Italy have gained eleven points from six games, 1.83 points per game, only losing to England during his tenure. However, he has drawn away from home against 68th-ranked North Macedonia and 24th-ranked Ukraine. They have also conceded seven goals in his first six matches as manager (1.17 goals per game) despite having an xGA tally of 0.8 per game.

However, offensively, the Azzurri have overperformed, scoring 13 goals, equating to 2.17 goals a game, despite averaging an xG of 1.76 goals scored per game.

Venezuela

Venezuela come into this friendly in high confidence having only lost two of their manager Fernando Batista’s eleven games in charge so far, gaining 1.72 points per game despite being the 52nd ranked nation in the world.

Although they haven’t won in three matches, losing once and drawing twice, they are currently positioned fourth in the CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualification standings ahead of Brazil, the fifth-ranked nation in the world. In October 2023, Venezuela even drew 1-1 away against Brazil.

Venezuela's defence has been a principal reason behind their recent success. They have conceded six goals in eleven matches under Batista, including three in six World Cup qualification matches, significantly overperforming their expected goals against (xGA) per game (1.29).

Offensively, Venezuela is less impressive, having slightly underperformed their expected goals (xG) per match (1.05). They’ve scored six goals in six qualifying matches, with their all-time record goalscorer Salomón Rondon leading the charts with two goals.

Prediction

This will be a fascinating battle as a Venezuelan team overperforming defensively takes on an Italian team overperforming offensively. Both sides need momentum heading into the summer's continental tournaments, and OddsNow expect the two to see plenty of goal-mouth action in their first ever encounter. 

OddsNow's Pick: Over 2.5 goals scored (Evens @ 10Bet)

 

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