Hill’s Hotshots: Back this 17/1 EFL acca on Saturday

Written by: Matt Hill

Matchday 3 of the 2024-25 EFL season is already upon us and I must say, you just can't beat a bit of early season hysteria.

A sample size of two games is clearly a pittance when it comes to assessing how a season may pan out, right? Well, that hasn't stopped fans up and down the country deciding their team are either climbing aboard HMS P*ss the League or destined for nine months of depressing disaster.

Things can still change quickly at this stage, though. I'm trying to bear that in mind after two of my strongest antepost fancies in Leeds and MK Dons both endured unsatisfactory starts to their respective title tilts.

I was actually hoping that may result in both taking a walk in the market, so that I could top up my singles and double, but it hasn't really. 

There's a lesson to be had there. The bookies aren't getting carried away on the first couple of weeks, so why should we? 

I've posted two losses thus far but to nick one of Mikel Arteta's many cringe-worthy quotes, I'm going to trust the process.

Huddersfield strolled to victory over Stevenage last weekend, while both Middlesbrough and Rotherham were clearly unlucky not to cop.

The way I play it, I know I'll have more losing weeks than winning ones but when a full house clicks, it gives my figures an almighty boost. The singles just help things tick along.

Let's hope it's third time lucky here, particularly given there's some juicy prices making the cut this week.

Matt Hill's best EFL bets for Saturday, August 24, 2024

  • 2pts - Sunderland to beat Burnley @ 21/10 (Betfair)

  • 2pts - Preston vs Luton Under 2.5 goals @ 21/10 (Bet365)

  • 2pts - Rotherham  to beat Wycombe @ 19/10 (Coral)

  • 1pts - Sunderland, Preston v Luton U2.5 + Rotherham treble @ 17/1 (Betfair) 

Total staked - 7pts
2024-25 P/L - -10.2pts

Sunderland to beat Burnley (11/5)

Sunderland have started the new season brightly

When you’ve had a tough start to the season on the tipping front, it’s scarcely advisable to be opposing a side who have won their opening two games by an aggregate margin of 9-1.

But let’s do it anyway.

The Stadium of Light plays host to the standout game of the EFL weekend on Saturday afternoon as two of the Championship’s three remaining perfect sides face-off in Sunderland and Burnley.

There has been a real clamour around the Clarets in particular. Already backed into 11/4 favourites for the title having gone off 8/1 a fortnight ago, Scott Parker’s side seem to have won around most of their doubters already — but I’m not sold just yet.

It’s hard to knock a side that open up with two such wide-margin wins but the Lancashire outfit did not display the level of dominance you would expect when achieving such scorelines.

In their opener against Luton, the xG battle was deadlocked at 1.43 vs 1.46. Rob Edwards’ hosts were caught out by a couple of early long balls but then grew into an even contest, before being picked off late on.

Last weekend’s home encounter with Cardiff was an even more bizarre affair. Parker’s men racked up a 5-0 victory off the back of a paltry xG total of just 0.81 — and having been second-best for much of the contest.

First, Bluebirds keeper Ethan Horvath threw his hat in the ring for worst blooper of the season. But his teammates rallied, hitting the post when through one-on-one before having an equaliser ruled out for offside.

Follow that bad luck up with two very preventable strikes and two outstanding ones and you have a slightly misleading scoreline.

Now, am I arguing that this Burnley side are actually mediocre and should be taken on at every opportunity? No. There’s nowhere near enough evidence for that kind of assessment (yet).

However, I’m convinced that Regis Le Bris’ high-flying Black Cats will provide the new league favourites with their sternest examination yet.

Viewers of my EFL antepost preview on our YouTube channel will know I am keen on Sunderland this season and their campaign could hardly have started better.

Like Burnley, they enjoyed a comfortable win over Cardiff and though their 2-0 scoreline wasn’t as impressive, they generated over twice the expected goals total of the Clarets.

That was backed up by a thumping 4-0 win over well-fancied Sheffield Wednesday last week in front of a rocking Stadium of Light, where the hosts were dominant from the first whistle to the last.

I think this young, vibrant side are the real deal and at north of 2/1 — particularly with home advantage factored in — they look a stonking bet for an “upset”.

Preston vs Luton under 2.5 goals - 10/11

Paul Heckingbottom is Preston's new boss

After one the most shambolic starts to a season in recent memory, Preston’s board made their desire for stability clear by appointing Paul Heckingbottom as the club’s new manager.

Names linked to the Deepdale vacancy were broad ranging. Scott Lindsay, Brian Barry-Murphy, Alex Neil and Gary Rowett all had their respective turns at the top of the betting market.

But in times of crisis, humans tend to become risk-averse — and that’s where the solid, dependable Heckingbottom found himself to have a decisive edge over his fellow applicants.

It probably wasn’t an appointment that got pulses racing among the fanbase. And yet, the Yorkshireman has overseen four solid Championship campaigns and even has a promotion to the Premier League on his CV with Sheffield United.

Critics will point to the fact he merely achieved what was expected that year with a strong squad — though I’d call that unfair. After all, plenty of good squads have failed to go up over the years.

Maybe it’s the fact his playing career wasn’t all that glittering, or that he’s had to work his way up through the ranks. Yes, he had a tough spell with Hibs but you'd be hard-pressed to hold that against him.

I’d suggest if he was called Paulo Heckinboza and was arriving off the back of similar achievements in Spain, plenty would be heralding this appointment as a coup.

Either way, I’m confident Heckingbottom will prove a good fit for North End and I’d expect an immediate impact this weekend when they host Luton.

The Hatters will be disappointed with their return to second tier life thus far, having been battered by Burnley in their opener before clinging on for a 0-0 draw at Portsmouth last weekend.

There were mitigating circumstances behind that stalemate at Fratton Park after their keeper Thomas Kaminski was sent off in the opening half hour — though nobody should have been surprised by a low goal count.

That result extended a remarkable run which has seen Luton’s last 11 away fixtures in the Championship (excluding play-off games) all produce under 2.5 goals. They are undefeated in that streak too, with four wins and seven draws.

In essence, Rob Edwards’ men don’t take risks on the road. They grind things out and keep it tight — something which would also surely suit Heckingbottom and Preston this weekend.

The new Preston boss told the LEP this week: “The short-term goals are to get back on track. Longer term, we want to be a really competitive team in this league.”

This pragmatist knows Rome wasn’t built in a day. Expect the hosts to go back to basics against an organised but unadventurous Luton and take advantage of the generous 10/11 on offer for under 2.5 goals.

Rotherham to beat Wycombe (19/10)

Steve Evans has overseen two frustrating results with Rotherham thus far

I know what you’re thinking. Surely he’s not going to put up Rotherham again after getting them wrong twice in a row? Well…

Call it blind loyalty, call it stubbornness — it’s arguably a combination of both — but I can’t let the Millers go unbacked just shy of 2/1 away at Wycombe based on what they showed last weekend against Bristol Rovers.

As I’ve already detailed in my intro, we were a tad unlucky with both of last week’s losers. But while Boro conceded a silly goal early and were always chasing the game, Rotherham’s constant but ultimately fruitless siege on their opponents’ goal was far more frustrating.

Steve Evans’ side mustered 2.97xG across the 90 minutes for no return, missing big chance after big chance. Had the game finished 3-0 or 4-0, there wouldn’t have been much room for complaint.

Away stopper Josh Griffiths had one of those days and, even on the rare occasion he was beaten, both the post and the crossbar made timely interventions.

Getting the picture? I’m conscious I’m sounding like a bitter punter but it's more a case of not being deterred due to some bad fortune.

There’s no point being too result-focused in this game. You will back winners that should have lost and losers that should have won many times over the course of a season.

And while the lucky winners may feel sweeter at the time, the benefit of being on the raw side of the deal means it might draw your attention to some better value further down the line.

Wycombe have started their season with back-to-back 3-2 losses, although there is a strong argument that Wrexham and Birmingham will end up being two of the division’s stronger outfits.

On the face of it, last week’s one-goal defeat to the League One title favourites is a commendable performance. Yet in truth, the Chairboys were thoroughly outclassed and might be set for a similar experience here.

Adams Park is one of the trickier grounds to visit in the third tier with a mediocre pitch often playing into the hands of the physical home side.

But with a mix of strength and guile in their ranks, I would think the Millers are relishing such a challenge and this looks like the perfect place for them to pick up a first three points.

Don’t worry Rotherham fans — if I manage to somehow prevent you from winning again on Saturday, I’ll give you a few weeks off this column to get your season up and running.

At time of writing, Matt’s treble of Coventry, Blackpool and Rotherham pays a best price of 16.84/1 at Unibet (as of midday on Friday, August 23, 2024).

Meet the Author

Matt Hill

Matt has now been operating in the sports content and betting space for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with industry giants Betfred and LiveScore.

A qualified journalist, he began his career reporting on his beloved Carlisle United FC as a teenager and still follows the Blues avidly to this day, as much as life allows.

One of the keenest punters around, Matt is never shy of an opinion and builds the bulk of his betting portfolio around antepost football markets and PDC darts events.

Previous Next