Gab Sutton weekly: Black Cats showing claws in Championship promotion race

In his first exclusive column for Odds Now, English Football League expert Gab Sutton (@GabSutton) takes a closer look at the Championship promotion race.

Le Bris' Black Cats are purring

Well, Sunderland have won five of their first six league games — who would have thought it?

No doubt many people will put this down to the miraculous work done by Régis Le Bris to inspire a team that slumped to 16th last season to start this campaign on fire, without any headline additions — and the loss of star winger Jack Clarke to Ipswich.

And to some extent, that’s true. Le Bris has been the calming, steady hand these black kittens needed to fulfil their potential, organising a coherent pressing structure that wasn’t in evidence at the Stadium of Light last season.

But this has been no sorcery. Much of the same young squad reached the play-offs when they were two seasons further back in their development in 2022-23, all while dealing with horrific injury crises in defence and midfield.

The perception of where they are at has been skewed by the controversial sacking of Tony Mowbray in November, when they were in a good position, and the disruption that Mick Beale subsequently caused, before Mike Dodds proved himself unsuited to the number one gig.

In Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg, Sunderland boast two of the country’s most precocious talents, and both teenagers already have a couple of years’ senior football under their respective belts. Therefore, this was always likely to be the season in which they could really catch fire, and so it’s proving.

The Wearsiders possess a plethora of elite talent, and they’re all coming towards, if not their peak, a stage of their careers at which they can deliver consistently.

Having gone off a general 33/1 chance for the title, Sunderland are now a best price of 10/1 with bookmakers to top the pile — and no bigger than 5/2 to seal a long-awaited Premier League return.

Of course, league favourites Leeds will be the big acid test for Le Bris’ side next Friday. If they can show their mettle in that one, as well as having taken a minimum of four points from Watford and Derby, then my title prediction is looking pretty good!

Rounded Leeds looking good in the long run

Speaking of Leeds, they’ve responded well to the losses of star men in Archie Gray, Georginio Rutter and Crysencio Summerville.

They’ve become less reliant on individual quality this year, and are I think a better rounded team as a result.

The Whites create chances more freely, organically and consistently than we perhaps saw last season, when everything seemed to revolve around Summerville: there are more players who you feel confident can make a contribution — Manor Soloman, for instance, looks a great signing on loan from Tottenham.

Junior Firpo at left-back seems to have upped his game this year, while Jayden Bogle at right-back looks a short-term upgrade on Gray, who’s a midfielder by trade. So they’ve made the pitch a bit wider this year, which is making them harder to defend against.

As such, they’ve probably played well enough to have accrued more than the 11 points they’ve amassed from their opening six. I can see why bookies are holding firm with them as the team to beat — no bigger than 13/8 at the time of writing.

Baggies bouncing under crafty Corberán

Daniel Farke’s side are the only ones to stop West Brom from accruing all three points to date, holding the Baggies to a goalless draw at the Hawthorns on week two.

Carlos Corberán is the best manager in the league, for me, because there were lots of question marks around the quality of Albion’s squad going into the campaign following the losses of key players.

In fact, with almost any other manager, they’d probably spend this season slumped in and around midtable.

But Corberán seems to be able to make any group he’s working with better. You lose Cédric Kipré and Okay Yokuşlu, and Semi Ajayi and Jayson Molumby step up, Conor Townsend goes but Torbjørn Heggem hits the ground running. Thomas-Asante looks a loss, but then Josh Maja starts on fire with six goals and is now a frontrunner for the division's Golden Boot.

🎶 “𝒥𝑜𝓈𝒽 𝑀𝒶𝒿𝒶’𝓈 𝑜𝓃 𝓂𝓎 𝓂𝒾𝓃𝒹, 𝒶𝓃𝒹 𝒽𝑒’𝓈 𝒜𝓁𝒷𝒾𝑜𝓃’𝓈 𝓃𝓊𝓂𝒷𝑒𝓇 𝓃𝒾𝓃𝑒.” 🎶@JoshMaja | #WBA pic.twitter.com/w0xBjDXwEu

— West Bromwich Albion (@WBA) September 24, 2024

Even elsewhere in the team, Tom Fellows has had a bright start on the right wing with four assists already.

Corberán can coach teams to create a high-volume of chances, whilst also being defensively well-drilled: the perfect balance that bodes well for the remainder. Odds makers seem to agree, having sliced the Baggies into third favourites for the division at 9/1.

Clarets yet to convince fully under Parker

I’m less convinced by Scott Parker at Burnley, and am still not necessarily convinced they’ll finish in the top six: his reputation as a man manager is mixed, at best — and it’s questionable how well he can manage upwards.

They’re at their most dangerous playing long passes down the flanks, when they’re able to carve teams open, like they did at Luton on opening night and in the last half-hour against Cardiff.

However, when they have to unlock a deep defensive block, they seem to struggle. 

The title-winning team of 2022-23 was fantastic at that side of the game, but I’m not sure the class of 2024-25 can do it so well, based on how difficult they’ve found it, against 10 men, to exploit that numerical advantage.

Plus, they’ve got 32 players in their senior squad, and only a third of them can start. I think there’ll be challenges behind the scenes and I’m not sure Parker has what it takes to handle them well.

Buoyant Blades the biggest surprise so far

By comparison, I think Sheffield United will be a happier ship because of how popular Chris Wilder is at Bramall Lane, and they’ve enjoyed a great start, taking 14 points from their opening six games – even if they’re currently only on 12 due to their deduction.

With the star quality in Anel Ahmedhodzic, Gus Hamer and Callum O’Hare, the Blades have a great first XI, and I’ve been surprised how quickly it’s all amalgamated after a slow summer.

However, there’s still a big question mark over squad depth, and how well they’d cope with an injury crisis. Keeping their first-stringers fit, fresh and available will be crucial.

United would represent my biggest change of heart from my Season Preview 1-24s, in which I put them 14th — I’m not sure I’d go that low now!

At least there’s one prediction I don’t regret yet…Haway The Lads!

You can catch Gab Sutton's EFL analysis every week here on OddsNow.com. Also, check out the first edition of our EFL Betting Show over on the Odds Now YouTube channel below!